Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Firstly, regarding the ECM snow graphic I just saw snow does NOT match these numbers - not even close. ORH 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK THU 00Z 21-FEB -5.6 -14.1 1008 60 84 0.00 520 514 THU 06Z 21-FEB -8.2 -10.2 1010 74 69 0.00 527 519 THU 12Z 21-FEB -10.1 -14.2 1012 75 82 0.00 527 519 THU 18Z 21-FEB -3.1 -11.6 1012 51 82 0.00 526 516 FRI 00Z 22-FEB -6.8 -8.5 1018 74 64 0.00 535 521 FRI 06Z 22-FEB -8.8 -8.0 1023 89 46 0.00 548 530 FRI 12Z 22-FEB -9.4 -5.3 1027 90 23 0.00 555 534 FRI 18Z 22-FEB 1.9 -4.5 1028 65 11 0.00 557 535 SAT 00Z 23-FEB -3.6 -3.2 1027 89 17 0.00 557 536 SAT 06Z 23-FEB -5.7 -4.8 1027 91 88 0.00 556 535 SAT 12Z 23-FEB -4.0 -5.2 1025 91 32 0.00 555 536 SAT 18Z 23-FEB 0.7 -3.6 1021 83 46 0.02 553 536 SUN 00Z 24-FEB -0.5 -1.3 1018 95 99 0.09 552 538 SUN 06Z 24-FEB 0.0 -0.5 1011 98 99 0.30 548 539 SUN 12Z 24-FEB 0.5 -1.4 1005 98 97 0.39 541 537 SUN 18Z 24-FEB 0.7 -4.3 1003 94 98 0.27 535 533 MON 00Z 25-FEB -0.7 -7.0 1008 89 99 0.23 534 528 MON 06Z 25-FEB -2.0 -7.3 1011 89 80 0.04 538 529 MON 12Z 25-FEB -6.7 -5.1 1017 92 60 0.00 544 531 A synoptic evolution such as this, with a storm running out south at perfect climo latitudes, a high parked N in a descending -NAO, and 850's that are less than 0C the entire duration... before March 1st ... I mean, how many conceptual points need to be made! That's a classic spring blue bomb right there... And the sfc T is undoubtely a click or two, too warm during the duration, as well. Bank it! Now....whether that storm actually happens - that's another story. Frankly, the models have shown some sudden intrusion of, albeit small, discontinuity/disagreement since the 00z run. Probably still need to work on nailing down track and intensity still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 I am a little suspicious where the NAM is getting those prolific QPF numbers from... Every run since 00z has been attenuating the mid level mechanics a small amount, and the NAM seems to be heading in the other direction QPF -wise. There may be other reasons, such as idealized frontogenic/meso action... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Can't tell, but how did Uncle look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thanks, Scooter and Bret...isolating myself from friends was not a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yeah ... the more I look at this - it almost seems the NAM has some runaway meso processes going on - question is, are they real? I just saw a NAM snow graphic that put 24-36" down in a pentagunal region encompassing ORH-PVD-BOS-FIT, and NYC has almost 0 snow. That's highly, highly unusual - but stranger things have probably happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Can't tell, but how did Uncle look? Coming back aboard...wish we could see one more panel, but 72h looked pretty good. Not quite as intense though as the NAM (of course) and maybe a little weaker than GFS. Vort is in a great spot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Gil at WTNH is calling for 4-6" here in Northeastern Connecticut, but he calls these total's "conservative:. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 the ggem is torched. kisses S VT with the 0C 850 line. something is off with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thanks, Scooter and Bret...isolating myself from friends was not a good idea. B's before H's...if you hear me, Sorry for OT, back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 the ggem is torched. kisses S VT with the 0C 850 line. something is off with this system. It gets really warm for such a southern track. I don't know if that's ever happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Coming back aboard...wish we could see one more panel, but 72h looked pretty good. Not quite as intense though as the NAM (of course) and maybe a little weaker than GFS. Vort is in a great spot though. Alright good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It gets really warm for such a southern track. I don't know if that's ever happened. It's a flag for now. Lets hope the EURO keeps cooling off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It gets really warm for such a southern track. I don't know if that's ever happened. GEM is much weaker than other guidance...a good 5-8mb weaker at 72h which is probably why it starts warmer before temps crash. You can see how as soon as the precip rates increae, it crashes the mid-level 0C line back SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It's a flag for now. Lets hope the EURO keeps cooling off. It's always good to keep in mind, climo. That looks off...I mean I buy the warm tongue....but unless the euro came way north...a track like that would be tough to get the 850 line that far north...esp with a decaying primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It gets really warm for such a southern track. I don't know if that's ever happened. you'd think it was a month from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It gets really warm for such a southern track. I don't know if that's ever happened. Toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GEM is much weaker than other guidance...a good 5-8mb weaker at 72h which is probably why it starts warmer before temps crash. You can see how as soon as the precip rates increae, it crashes the mid-level 0C line back SE. Yeah it's definitely weaker..just looks odd to me, but again...shows you how dynamics need to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GEM is much weaker than other guidance...a good 5-8mb weaker at 72h which is probably why it starts warmer before temps crash. You can see how as soon as the precip rates increae, it crashes the mid-level 0C line back SE. A good illustration of how track is important but, in a rare showing, strength looks like it will be much MORE important for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thanks, Scooter and Bret...isolating myself from friends was not a good idea. We love ya ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 A good illustration of how track is important but, in a rare showing, strength looks like it will be much MORE important for many. Especially as we move towards spring.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lets put it this way, if we get QPF worth getting riled up about, then its going to be a snowier solution. If we get a warmer solution, you probably aren't wasting an inch of qpf on rain....probably half that or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lets put it this way, if we get QPF worth getting riled up about, then its going to be a snowier solution. If we get a warmer solution, you probably aren't wasting an inch of qpf on rain....probably half that or less.We don't follow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'm pretty confident that euro is more nam like vs GFS like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We don't follow? Meaning that a weaker solution may be warmer, but it's not like you are missing an 18" snowstorm, by wasting 1" of QPF on rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Especially as we move towards spring.... We are not yet engaging is sping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Meaning that a weaker solution may be warmer, but it's not like you are missing an 18" snowstorm, by wasting 1" of QPF on rain.So is he saying even with a warmer solution half is still snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'm pretty confident that euro is more nam like vs GFS like. I don't think so. But hey, if the Euro lined up with the NAM and showed half its QPF, I'd be pretty enthusiastic. I'm still waiting for the Euro to show some real run-to-run consistency as we close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 So is he saying even with a warmer solution half is still snow? no he's saying the storm would be crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 So is he saying even with a warmer solution half is still snow? No...a warmer solution has less qpf because the warmer solutions are weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 the ggem is torched. kisses S VT with the 0C 850 line. something is off with this system. Maybe but we don't have enough of a track record with the "improved" GGEM, will be interested to see how the Euro moved in 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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