ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Will continue the htread here as the other one was getting very long and going off topic.... 12z runs today support a general 2-4" type snow across much of SNE with potential for higher amounts in eastern MA and RI from the coastal that tries to graze the area on Saturday night and Sunday morning. GFS/GEFS: Big hit for eastern areas (10"+) on the coastal potion of the low and it is also the most agressive with round 1 early on Saturday with 2-4" alone from that over the interior. GGEM: Basically a tamed down version of the GFS/GEFS...looked like 1-3" from the Sat morning stuff and perhaps 2-4/3-5 over eastern MA/RI from the coastal. Ukie: 1-3"...most of it from round 1, though it does give perhaps another 1-3" for the east from the coastal. Euro: Kind of like the GGEM. Almost similar amounts perhaps longer duration and slightly lower rates. Still some time on this as its a close call for larger amounts...but right now, the GFS/GEFS are not supported by other guidance on their aggressive solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Even the JMA is tame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Will continue the htread here as the other one was getting very long and going off topic.... 12z runs today support a general 2-4" type snow across much of SNE with potential for higher amounts in eastern MA and RI from the coastal that tries to graze the area on Saturday night and Sunday morning. GFS/GEFS: Big hit for eastern areas (10"+) on the coastal potion of the low and it is also the most agressive with round 1 early on Saturday with 2-4" alone from that over the interior. GGEM: Basically a tamed down version of the GFS/GEFS...looked like 1-3" from the Sat morning stuff and perhaps 2-4/3-5 over eastern MA/RI from the coastal. Ukie: 1-3"...most of it from round 1, though it does give perhaps another 1-3" for the east from the coastal. Euro: Kind of like the GGEM. Almost similar amounts perhaps longer duration and slightly lower rates. Still some time on this as its a close call for larger amounts...but right now, the GFS/GEFS are not supported by other guidance on their aggressive solution. Thanks for the recap/ score card. Just hoping for something to stop the bleeding, as Dryslot said earlier. Snowpack carnage out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wonder if we'll see a norlun set up somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 i'll wait til i can get a better look at the euro...but i didn't think it looked to terrible for at least E areas. actually looked like (from my phone) it took another step closer to some of the better solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 euro is .37" at CHH. nam was like .6....gfs something stupid like 1.3" mush them all together...weight toward euro....maybe 3-6, 4-8? i do think the western flank of this could have a nice band of snows...maybe it scrape west into BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 euro is .37" at CHH. nam was like .6....gfs something stupid like 1.3" mush them all together...weight toward euro....maybe 3-6, 4-8? i do think the western flank of this could have a nice band of snows...maybe it scrape west into BOS exactly. I cannot see all the levels yet either, nor do I really care to but it's a little obvious that it was "close" early in that run just based on what it does down the coast. One of those deals where we won't see a lock until Saturday or later tonight. For you and I...between 20-30" in a week possible...not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 exactly. I cannot see all the levels yet either, nor do I really care to but it's a little obvious that it was "close" early in that run just based on what it does down the coast. One of those deals where we won't see a lock until Saturday or later tonight. For you and I...between 20-30" in a week possible...not too shabby. how much did you get last weekend? figured you had to be at least 18"-ish +/- ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro now that I look at it is better than Meh for Scott. If its Ens beef up again today you got to think GEFS might have a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wonder if we'll see a norlun set up somewhere? Because noyes said it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Because noyes said it?Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Because noyes said it? It has been mentioned a couple of other times in the old thread... but not sure if that is how it evolves. Enjoy it down there. I am sure many of the Cape folks are not looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Why would there be an inverted trough in this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Trending towards nuisance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Trending towards nuisance. You are a trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Mean SLP S & E of BM. Fookin bombs out though into NS. Sub 970.15z SREFs. This is for rnd 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You are a trip. Well the pattern is moving, no block..nothing to really keep it from slowing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well the pattern is moving, no block..nothing to really keep it from slowing down. When the GFS came out you posted you might have been too cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This was the kind of storm back in the day that Messenger would be all over. He'd get the thing so analyzed and when the snow got back to the NY border Noone was surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 When the GFS came out you posted you might have been too cautious. Yeah might, which was followed by not buying it and further backed up by other guidance. 2-4 maybe 3-6 hopefully for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12km 12z btv-wrf meso buys a ticket for both events 4km 12z btv-wrf meso buys half a ticket from tolland-orh first event......and another half ticket for E side of c.c second event. (half tix= borderline advisory) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 how much did you get last weekend? figured you had to be at least 18"-ish +/- ? Phil, I'll go with 20". We got it good Saturday it really saved the show. I posted some of the radar grabs here, that one band just sat over us for hours and hours with 1-2" per hour snows. The NWS employee in east sandwich had 17"...and they were out of that band most of the time, so I'm feeling good about 20" which might actually be low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Even the JMA is tame... Which is a flag since it was the JMA and Ukie that originally had this storm and have both scaled back considerably from their original more robust solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 But................isn't the nogaps west? That used to be a HUGE red flag, I guess not anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 upton has chopped it's map-zero at New London to a high of 1.0 in Danbury.... edit-for part 1.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nam has cut way back with rd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If there isn't an update on the EURO ensembles by 3:15, that means it's "meh". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nam has cut way back with rd 1 Not suprised, would put it 50/50 that we see some flakes after the EURO had nothing. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Not suprised, would put it 50/50 that we see some flakes after the EURO had nothing. -skisheep its ok sw of nyc but much less up here. around .1 and temps are marginal at best upton says .03 of snow with rd one and .18 liquid so its basically a non event according to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nam looks better, might get the cape this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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