Kaner587 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 huh??? the h5 maps look avg at best..looks kinda blah at 216 Verbatim ends up as a moderate event around 0.5-0.6 for most of the area NYC south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Verbatim ends up as a moderate event around 0.5-0.6 for most of the area NYC south Verbatim ends up as a moderate event around 0.5-0.6 for most of the area NYC south this will not look like reality 9 days from now - that I can assure you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro goes to town with the block. 2010 like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Today's run of the Euro is a perfect example of not being able to get the true "flavor" from the free maps on the official website. I get the full Euro (precip maps and all) from another source for free. Essentially, the Feb. 22 event is a light snow event as the main low over the Midwest occludes and energy gets strung out instead of transitioning into an East Coast low. However, a HECS type system then follows as a potent S/W comes through along the STJ...which would be our first true Miller A of the season. It runs into the block and throws out over 1.5 inches of QPF (all snow) from DC to NYC. Boston never gets into the action as the block pushes the system ENE once it hit out latitudes. Oh, and then there's an even more potent S/W developing in the Gulf at 240 Hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Today's run of the Euro is a perfect example of not being able to get the true "flavor" from the free maps on the official website. I get the full Euro (precip maps and all) from another source for free. Essentially, the Feb. 22 event is a light snow event as the main low over the Midwest occludes and energy gets strung out instead of transitioning into an East Coast low. However, a HECS type system then follows as a potent S/W comes through along the STJ...which would be our first true Miller A of the season. It runs into the block and throws out over 1.5 inches of QPF (all snow) from DC to NYC. Boston never gets into the action as the block pushes the system ENE once it hit out latitudes. Oh, and then there's an even more potent S/W developing in the Gulf at 240 Hr. Today's run of the Euro is a perfect example of not being able to get the true "flavor" from the free maps on the official website. I get the full Euro (precip maps and all) from another source for free. Essentially, the Feb. 22 event is a light snow event as the main low over the Midwest occludes and energy gets strung out instead of transitioning into an East Coast low. However, a HECS type system then follows as a potent S/W comes through along the STJ...which would be our first true Miller A of the season. It runs into the block and throws out over 1.5 inches of QPF (all snow) from DC to NYC. Boston never gets into the action as the block pushes the system ENE once it hit out latitudes. Oh, and then there's an even more potent S/W developing in the Gulf at 240 Hr. kinda sounds like feb 1979, since a bit further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Today's run of the Euro is a perfect example of not being able to get the true "flavor" from the free maps on the official website. I get the full Euro (precip maps and all) from another source for free. Essentially, the Feb. 22 event is a light snow event as the main low over the Midwest occludes and energy gets strung out instead of transitioning into an East Coast low. However, a HECS type system then follows as a potent S/W comes through along the STJ...which would be our first true Miller A of the season. It runs into the block and throws out over 1.5 inches of QPF (all snow) from DC to NYC. Boston never gets into the action as the block pushes the system ENE once it hit out latitudes. Oh, and then there's an even more potent S/W developing in the Gulf at 240 Hr. Yep, looks like there's going to be multiple shortwaves to work with in this upcoming pattern. 12z GGEM was a fairly good hit with the Feb 22 event and then is ready to destroy the east coast with a HECS day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This is the best H5 map i've seen in quite a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Today's run of the Euro is a perfect example of not being able to get the true "flavor" from the free maps on the official website. I get the full Euro (precip maps and all) from another source for free. Essentially, the Feb. 22 event is a light snow event as the main low over the Midwest occludes and energy gets strung out instead of transitioning into an East Coast low. However, a HECS type system then follows as a potent S/W comes through along the STJ...which would be our first true Miller A of the season. It runs into the block and throws out over 1.5 inches of QPF (all snow) from DC to NYC. Boston never gets into the action as the block pushes the system ENE once it hit out latitudes. Oh, and then there's an even more potent S/W developing in the Gulf at 240 Hr. If the block can set up, I'll be quite excited for an event-it seems that over the last few years we end with a bang whenever one of those sets up, whether it be Boxing Day 2010, 1/27/11, Sandy, Snowtober, even the November storm this fall. Not a guarantee, but our odds increase big time. Too bad we still have a week before this is a threat and a lot can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Through hour 138, the High Pressure to the north is slightly stronger and the Low itself is slightly stronger on the 18z GFS. Wouldn't surprise me if the GFS tried to shear this out again though. Very nice storm at the moment in the Midwest. Sub 992 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Upton already mentions snow A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Absolutely not. We need the next two weeks to see how it scores. Just yesterday it was giving sne 2ft of snow. It is def not in the same room as the euro We know that it will be behind the Euro, but it will be interesting to see how it scores compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bullfr2121 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I think every 10 day forecast since December has said Major storm coming, this is the best setup all year. Then a few days later that falls apart, but wait, here's the new 10 day and this looks even better...wait, never mind...that's not going to happen either...but there are plenty more on the way. Beginning of Feb - the storm this weekend is gonna be huge Past few days - late next week/weekend gonna be a big hit Now we're on to the next storm 10 days out...is someone just messing with these models to get everyone all hyped just to disappoint, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The 18z GEFS are all over the place with this threat. All of them have it, but they all have widely different outcomes for it. Some deepen this low enough so that it cuts and it's a rain event. Others look like the 00z GFS from last night that gave us a nice snowstorm. Others are sheared like the operational. Wide spread. Highlights a good deal of uncertainty at this stage, and that there are multiple potential outcomes on the table right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I think every 10 day forecast since December has said Major storm coming, this is the best setup all year. Then a few days later that falls apart, but wait, here's the new 10 day and this looks even better...wait, never mind...that's not going to happen either...but there are plenty more on the way. Beginning of Feb - the storm this weekend is gonna be huge Past few days - late next week/weekend gonna be a big hit Now we're on to the next storm 10 days out...is someone just messing with these models to get everyone all hyped just to disappoint, lol Completely different H500 pattern. And last week, we only missed the super big totals because of timing of the phase and the sfc low went ENE. You certainly would not have wrote this post if we been buried with 34" of snow like New Haven got last week. I do see your point about the models, but this is a different pattern and it offers promise for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I think every 10 day forecast since December has said Major storm coming, this is the best setup all year. Then a few days later that falls apart, but wait, here's the new 10 day and this looks even better...wait, never mind...that's not going to happen either...but there are plenty more on the way. Beginning of Feb - the storm this weekend is gonna be huge Past few days - late next week/weekend gonna be a big hit Now we're on to the next storm 10 days out...is someone just messing with these models to get everyone all hyped just to disappoint, lol If i had a dollar for everytime i heard this type of post, i'd be rich. Why would anyone call off a threat for next weekend just because the models weren't as impressive with it today? It's EIGHT days out Look at the models and pattern and decide whether you want to buy into a storm for yourself. Models have always shown fantasy snowstorms this is nothing new... most of the time they don't verify. But with this upcoming pattern those chances go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Not good on this run for the 22nd storm. It dries up the precip as it heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Not good on this run for the 22nd storm. It dries up the precip as it heads east. Ensembles disagree.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro please? Also, Anthony, can you post the precip color maps frame-by-frame for the storm on the GGEM? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro please? Also, Anthony, can you post the precip color maps frame-by-frame for the storm on the GGEM? Thanks. ECM @ 168 hrs out.. GGEM @ 168 and 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Model mayhem continues. I wouldn't be surprised to see both the GFS and Euro trade places with the GGEM at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The day 10 system also cuts the storm to the west and has height rises along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 You can see the models moved toward stronger blocking over Hudson Bay with the energy getting sheared out underneath. So we'll probably see a weak or strung out system that can easily get suppressed down toward our south since it won't be very amplified. But we'll have to monitor how far north the secondary actually gets going. old New Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I thought blocking was a good thing, now it kills off this supposed huge storm. Not much time left this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 What do we need in order for the confluence to weaken and not shear the system out as much? The way this is currently being modeled, the system doesn't look too impressive at the moment. Of course, things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Blocking needs to relax a little bit. Anything is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 What do we need in order for the confluence to weaken and not shear the system out as much? The way this is currently being modeled, the system doesn't look too impressive at the moment. Of course, things can change. Ensembles all show a snowstorm - forget GFS at this point - follow the Euro. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Ensembles all show a snowstorm - forget GFS at this point - follow the Euro. Rossi The euro has nothing for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 6z GFS is terrible with this wave and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The euro has nothing for us Yea so much for this big threat, I suppose a lot can change but things right now are meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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