iceicebyebye Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 And this "new" type of snow pattern started with the big ice min in 2007. Are we really in a "new normal"? There do appear to be things going on with changes in north american weather that haven't been figured out yet. Ding ding ding. Yes. The key to understanding the parts lies in knowing the whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I said northern New England. I'm talking about Vermont northern ny state northern New Hampshire I follow that area for ski purposes and the last two years have been a waste. I like tree skiing so I need natural snow and they have had almost no big snow events up there. Usually in a Nina they do very well with a train of storms going over the lakes then reforming near NYC and pounding upstate new eng. last 2 years everything gets sheared out so they are getting puddly 1-3" at a time then before they can build up any real snowpack it gets wiped out by a cutter that brings 50 and rain all the way to Quebec. Trust me I know climo up there from skiing and this has been a disaster for that area too. at least their cold enough to be able to make snow. I,m a skier too, If they dont get a lot of snow their far enough norrth to have cold air . I dont really care about above 40 n. If that's your interest fine. I ski around here, liberty. New England ususally make out alright most years. Not like here in the midatlantic. When I was younger, I could go up north and go skiing even with bad years down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Ding ding ding. Yes. The key to understanding the parts lies in knowing the whole. Your whole belongs In the cc forum. Thanks for playing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 at least their cold enough to be able to make snow. I,m a skier too, If they dont get a lot of snow their far enough norrth to have cold air . I dont really care about above 40 n. If that's your interest fine. I ski around here, liberty. New England ususally make out alright most years. Not like here in the midatlantic. When I was younger, I could go up north and go skiing even with bad years down here. They do make snow but I'm big on natural off trail terrain like in the woods and backcountry. You need natural snow and at least a two foot base of it for that. Usually I have no problem if I leave 4 weekends open finding one that works up at sugarbush or Stowe. This year and last it's been a no go. No big dumps and before the small snows can build up enough base they get a thaw to wipe it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 And my point since we got sidetracked, is I see some connection. Storms have had trouble amplifying into the east and that's a problem for there and here. Southeast New England might as well be another planet. They stick out so much they can get flukes in any pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Can someone explain to me how that MW low is going to cut into that 1042 HP and 993 50/50 low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Can someone explain to me how that MW low is going to cut into that 1042 HP and 993 50/50 low? Maybe the question should be, how many model runs it it going to take to figure out that the low cant go over the Ridge in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Can someone explain to me how that MW low is going to cut into that 1042 HP and 993 50/50 low? Its not. Thats why it rots over IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 metaphorically impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Maybe the question should be, how many model runs it it going to take to figure out that the low cant go over the Ridge in Canada. Or for the ridge to disappear or the low to go POOF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 metaphorically impossible Impossibly metabolical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Pretty big changes on the 18Z GFS as far as temps go. The model is starting show a strong CAD signal at hour 138. Would be a pretty nasty ice storm I guess. Much weaker storm at 138 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Or for the ridge to disappear or the low to go POOF. good points mattie G !!I dont know much about the weather, but why wouldnt it just go underneath and ride to the EC?? Isnt that what the result of having a 50-50 low ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 18z GFS still taking the low too far north but looks better... for my area at least. Still think this storm makes everyone happy in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Can someone explain to me how that MW low is going to cut into that 1042 HP and 993 50/50 low? See the Navier-Stokes equations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It does raise an interesting question, though. Why would a weather system seemingly take the path of greatest resistance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 See the Navier-Stokes equations... Care for a quick synopsis for those of us not ready for a research project? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 good points mattie G !!I dont know much about the weather, but why wouldnt it just go underneath and ride to the EC?? Isnt that what the result of having a 50-50 low ?? This problem or problems are that the ull low closes off over the ok pnhandle and there's ul ridging behind the big closed 50-50 ull. As soon as an ull closes off it acts like a bowling ball (one of the reasons we call it one other than shape). Closed lows dig into the atmosphere and want make a left turn because of the strong rotation. This one closes way too far west to do anything except cut north/northwestward and as it does if cuts into a strong hp turning the opposite direction so it just gets shredded to pieces before our very eyes. I think this map pretty much sums it up: Find me any model that doesn't have that big ridge poking way up into canada between the 2 ull's and I will hug it until it's eyeballs pop out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It does raise an interesting question, though. Why would a weather system seemingly take the path of greatest resistance? It's the ul's that are killing it. It's taking the path of least resistance @ 500 where it matters. 850's and surface lows are along for the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It does raise an interesting question, though. Why would a weather system seemingly take the path of greatest resistance? Trough axis is way too far west so it starts to cut. If cant continue so it gets stuck and sheared to hell. If it was cutting to Ohio we would get a nice slug of precip then dry slot or it could even secondary from there. Problem is its cutting too far west and its then stuck and dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Can someone explain to me how that MW low is going to cut into that 1042 HP and 993 50/50 low? You need to look at the upper levels, they are the key, they high pressure system follows the confluence, when it goes away, pressures can lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It's the ul's that are killing it. It's taking the path of least resistance @ 500 where it matters. 850's and surface lows are along for the ride. We have a winner. You are getting too smart. There is no need for mets to even post any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Thanks Bob! It shows how much I still need to learn. Even when I see the major players on the field (50/50 and 1040+ HP) it doesnt mean that is necessarily a good setup for us. It really is surprising how difficult it is for us to get a snowstorm. I'm surprised it ever happens at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 We have a winner. You are getting too smart. There is no need for mets to even post any more. That would probably be the worst thing that could ever happen to amwx. lol. If you leave then I leave but I won't be missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Care for a quick synopsis for those of us not ready for a research project? NWP models are built on these fundamental physical equations, to suggest a model solution couldn't occur is kinda crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 That would probably be the worst thing that could ever happen to amwx. lol. If you leave then I leave but I won't be missed. But you're right about the high and low following the lead of the 500h though to some extent a real cold high can brunt the intensity of the low some, but it's really about where the upper level divergence (pressure falls) and convergence (pressure rises) are located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 But you're right about the high and low following the lead of the 500h though to some extent a real cold high can brunt the intensity of the low some, but it's really about where the upper level divergence (pressure falls) and convergence (pressure rises) are located. Being right is no fun anymore. Throw me an optimistic bone and tell me what could happen over the next couple days that could lead to a reasonable solution to get back where we were a few days ago. I just want to break the streak. That's my last hurrah this winter and we seem to be in quite a pattern of gut punches and landing on fences with our legs spread. Is it a huge reach to think a miller be is on the table? What if the slug coming across has a chance to turn the corner? Right now the 50-50 says not a chance. But is there really not much chance at anything here? A wave devoloping on the tail of the front like the euro is showing? Something? When you look at the full loop of the gfs is sickening. The 50-50 is locked by the biggest -nao we've seen in months. But it's not a good thing. There's a huge block in central canada too. Flow goes from amped to flat and everything self destructs. I know it's just a run but still. The writing started yesterday or the day before. It's absolutely disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 But you're right about the high and low following the lead of the 500h though to some extent a real cold high can brunt the intensity of the low some, but it's really about where the upper level divergence (pressure falls) and convergence (pressure rises) are located. Where do you find that information (divergence/convergence) when looking at a model output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Where do you find that information (divergence/convergence) when looking at a model output? On a 500mb map it is where the isoheights (lines) converge/diverge. 300mb is basically the same but within a jetstreak (area of higher winds) it is separated into quadrants like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Being right is no fun anymore. Throw me an optimistic bone and tell me what could happen over the next couple days that could lead to a reasonable solution to get back where we were a few days ago. I just want to break the streak. That's my last hurrah this winter and we seem to be in quite a pattern of gut punches and landing on fences with our legs spread. Is it a huge reach to think a miller be is on the table? What if the slug coming across has a chance to turn the corner? Right now the 50-50 says not a chance. But is there really not much chance at anything here? A wave devoloping on the tail of the front like the euro is showing? Something? When you look at the full loop of the gfs is sickening. The 50-50 is locked by the biggest -nao we've seen in months. But it's not a good thing. There's a huge block in central canada too. Flow goes from amped to flat and everything self destructs. I know it's just a run but still. The writing started yesterday or the day before. It's absolutely disgusting. Bob, we have a no win, no win winter. Incredible. I am hoping for some severe this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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