WilkesboroDude Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 There's already a consensus. 18Z pushed the snow further west, 00Z a little further east. This has been on the GFS for at least 2 or 3 days now. Consistently. I'm not sure what the Euro shows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 For what it's worth, the 0z GFS Ensemble mean looks pretty freaking good for this one... 1010 mb SLP off the coast of SAV at hr 108 and a 1004 SLP goes OTS from Cape Hatteras at hr 120. In the meantime, we get 0.25-0.75" of QPF with 850s below 0C in the western half of NC and maybe NW SC. E TN gets snow, too, but less of it. Of course, the wild card is surface temps and I have no clue what they are as they aren't shown, so this may be all moot. There doesn't seem to be a fresh feed of cold air, so it may just be a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 TheGFS it seems is slowly trending toward the EURO solution of a swing and a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 TheGFS it seems is slowly trending toward the EURO solution of a swing and a miss.I don't see that now. The 0z euro now has a low right off the coast. Ensembles are close as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Cmc looks like snow for tenn and the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Cmc looks like snow for tenn and the mtns. 18z run of the Nam is again colder than the GFS. Also, it digs the energy farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 18z run of the Nam is again colder than the GFS. Also, it digs the energy farther south.at 84 it looked like it was about to tilt negative. Could form a nice backside comma head and hit tenn hardm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 NWS Blacksburg Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... as of 240 PM EST Saturday... The area will remain in a fairly progressive pattern through this portion of the forecast. We first will encounter Tuesday night into Wednesday...an area of surface low pressure will progress from Georgia to off the coast of North Carolina. Coincident to this...a shortwave trough will approach the region from the lower Ohio Valley. While there still are notable differences in the models...the general trend is for the southern half of the region to experience precipitation that will be along the northern and northwestern flanks of this low. What will make a significant impact on our forecast is the structure of the low level temperature profile across the forecast area during this precipitation. The GFS solution offers mild enough air over the southern half of the region for a wintry mix...with light snow in the north to the colder. The European model (ecmwf) is slightly milder and offers a wintry mix for the entire area. The Canadian solution is cooler with a snow forecast for much of the area and a wintry mix for the far south. At this point...we will keep it simple with either a rain or snow forecast based upon the forecast surface temperature Tuesday night into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Both the GFS and NAM have the V-Day storm looking good for the Virginia areas. Definitely something to watch here in the coming days. Seems as tho the southern stream gets its act together just as it goes through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 hour 96 on the GFS widespread potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 18z GEFS mean takes our SLP from Mobile, AL to Wilmington, NC from hr 84-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 00z NAM at h5 is better than 12z much more digging with the S/W out west. A lot of moisture along the gulf coast at hr51. Will have to see if the cold air makes it in time. But, it could be a weenie run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 0z NAM develops a pretty beastly storm, which unfortunately becomes an Apps Runner. St. Louis is the big winner. VA might do okay with a front-end hump, too. Not as much WAA as I might expect. Of course, it's the long range NAM, so take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Crazy looking 850's at hour 76 has nw nc triad possibly starting as snow then by hr 80 has 850 line right down NC /VA line with pretty stout qpf. 5h at 84 is about to close off and really go to town. In my area and really for TN and Apps we really need the trough to dig deeper. As portrayed this scenario would go neutral negative tilt to fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 850 low runs right thru Tennessee. Not gonna workout for anyone in nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I had no idea a thread was created for this storm already, so I'll repost what I posted in the Feb disco thread... 0z Euro shows snow for WNC as storm exits. Storm tracks the coast of SC then off the coast of Wilmington, NC contrast that with the 12z Euro track through NC off northern OBX. Similar to CMC except no bomb, just glides off the coast...also a little more north, CMC is well off GA/SC coast when Euro run is not....not too hi-res so who knows where exactly the low is positioned. Good trend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Allan says rain outside mountains looks like to him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 12Z NAM still showing a colder solution. But I would worry about surface temps. Still interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GFS tracks h5 into northern NC on this run. 850's subsequently much further north up into northern VA. Low then explodes when it hits Norfolk. Man if we could just have this thing a little further south we would be game on for a plastering of everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 NWS Blacksburg Looking more and more like another potential snowfall for the region Wednesday. The op GFS has been the lead dog so to speak first indicating this potential yesterday...and all other models including the 0z European model (ecmwf) have been trending in its direction. The op GFS is definitely stronger with the 500 mb low...almost indicating a negative tilt...whereas the European model (ecmwf) is weaker. This is a vital point...because a stronger more compact upper low is going to be needed to generate enough lift/dynamical cooling to overcome a marginal boundary layer for snow. Details can still change a ton considering this is day 4...but this system seems to be similar to the Jan 17 event. The op GFS and gefs is still bullish indicating a 6hr period of moderate precipitation underneath a deformation zone Wednesday afternoon or evening. At this time...seems like there might be a morning rain changing over to snow in the afternoon. Stay tuned. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 Weather.com added 60% chance snow/rain high 38 for here. Blacksburg added snow mixing in at night low of 33 and high of 42. Probably be a raw day with overcast rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GFS tracks h5 into northern NC on this run. 850's subsequently much further north up into northern VA. Low then explodes when it hits Norfolk. Man if we could just have this thing a little further south we would be game on for a plastering of everything. why is it we can't seem to get the 850 line a little further south? seems like its always just a little out of reach for some of us to get a good snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 NWS Blacksburg Looking more and more like another potential snowfall for the region Wednesday. The op GFS has been the lead dog so to speak first indicating this potential yesterday...and all other models including the 0z European model (ecmwf) have been trending in its direction. The op GFS is definitely stronger with the 500 mb low...almost indicating a negative tilt...whereas the European model (ecmwf) is weaker. This is a vital point...because a stronger more compact upper low is going to be needed to generate enough lift/dynamical cooling to overcome a marginal boundary layer for snow. Details can still change a ton considering this is day 4...but this system seems to be similar to the Jan 17 event. The op GFS and gefs is still bullish indicating a 6hr period of moderate precipitation underneath a deformation zone Wednesday afternoon or evening. At this time...seems like there might be a morning rain changing over to snow in the afternoon. Stay tuned. && this is what I want GSP to put out in the next day or two. NOT BLACKSBURG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 12Z NAM still showing a colder solution. But I would worry about surface temps. Still interesting. It is, although, as you said, surface temps are blazing. Not even close here, really, despite compliant 850s to start. That would be a rather strange setup to get snow in, anyways. WAA should be full speed ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It is, although, as you said, surface temps are blazing. Not even close here, really, despite compliant 850s to start. That would be a rather strange setup to get snow in, anyways. WAA should be full speed ahead. Just for interest, the 18Z NAM is still cold with 850s. Had about two frames (6 hours) where 850 temps were at of below freezing across northern NC. Surface temps will be the real issue so still think it will be a cold rain or at most a little mix. But really there's not much more to track at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 Winter Storm Watches flaring up...Texas...Oklahoma....special weather statements spreading east into Arkansas now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 So how much rain are we looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 CAD anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It is called forecasting. 4 day event needs a thread whether it happens or not in your backyard is a whole different story. Could care less about threads getting starting when it is 100% going to happen. That is not even forecasting. Not every shower and summer thunderstorm needs a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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