earthlight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro is 50-75 miles northwest of the 00z run with the precipitation shield at 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yup, through 12 hours, the Euro has definitely ticked wetter compared to the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The Euro through 6 hours actually looks stronger with the southern stream vorticity, and is definitely wetter at the surface. Hr 12 looks to be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 HRRR also picks up the warm tongue. All hi-res models have this now. HRRR has it further east. Depending on where the low and mid level lows combine is where this warm tongue will set up. The NAM drops heavy precip in the warm tongue, completely over running the dynamical cooling effects. Correct if I'm wrong... HRRR: How heavy is the qpf in that warm toungue in comparison to what areas are not impacted by it, (i.e. Western Nassau all the way back to NE NJ?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro is 50-75 miles northwest of the 00z run with the precipitation shield at 12 hours. Wow, should make for an interesting evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Southern stream vort is also stronger and closed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 looks great by 18...heavy snow ongoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 How heavy is the qpf in that warm toungue in comparison to what areas are not impacted by it, (i.e. Western Nassau all the way back to NE NJ?) 12z 12km NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Come on guys, we don't need the EURO to tell us this storm is NW -____________-The R/S is retreating right now, near NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hr 18 city and Long Island hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Darn radar isn't working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 An area of greater than 1" of rain per hour is forming now off the Jersey shore http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N1P&rid=DOX&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 .25+ at hr 24 and .5+ at hr 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The Euro through 6 hours actually looks stronger with the southern stream vorticity, and is definitely wetter at the surface. Great news, I'm not expecting it to show 30"+ plus but it would be great to lock everyone in at 12-24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 2"+ of QPF for NYC east through 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 An area of greater than 1" of rain per hour is forming now off the Jersey shore http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N1P&rid=DOX&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think the R/S is slightly north then what radar shows. Maybe just north of hudson county. Still rain here, but shows Im snow, but it shouldn't be far. All snow for all NYC by 2:30 I predict Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hr 18 city and Long Island hammered Can't look right now but how much does it give NENJ this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 12z NAM and GFS showed similar trends.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 2"+ of QPF for NYC east through 24 hours. How are the 850's and 925mb? Have a warm tongue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Solid hit on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Can't look right now but how much does it give NENJ this run 2" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 IF you look at the SPC RUC analysis, the SOuthern stream is actually closed off. Probabbly why the euro shifted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hr 18 city and Long Island hammered keep talking dirty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Can't look right now but how much does it give NENJ this run 1.50+ not all of that is snow. But a good amount is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 how about QPF for western CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 QPF is notoriously difficult to predict (there are so many scales of phenomena involved, dealing with phase change, highly nonlinear nature)....especially with models run at their current resolutions. The GFS effectively has 27 km (ish) horizontal resolution, so a lot of what goes into QPF is parameterized (adding to the difficulty). DTK , you seem to be offended by my comments before Wasnt intentional I was asking if necp thought the GFS had a SW bias because to me it seem thers issues there sometimes Just my opinion. Pls don't take offense i was making the argument that we missed sandy until 3 days out and was wondering if it was a res problem. So no offense intended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro is at least 12 + for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 How are the 850's and 925mb? Have a warm tongue? I don't have 925mb access, but 850s look nice and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 how about QPF for western CT? 2+ for ur area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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