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February 13/14 VD Storm discussion


Bostonseminole

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I hope so.  I've got a silly all day management team meeting at the boss's house on Thursday and my wife is pissed that I won't be home to take her out to dinner.  Unfortunately I think that since I am the only team member that doesn't live in Brooklyn he'll make me figure out how to get there even if it is like today.  Maybe I get lucky and the bridges onto LI are closed and I can't get there...

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Looks like an active period in addition to this possibility.

 

How funny it is that as soon as one finishes digging out, the focus immediately goes to "when do we get more"?  

 

I need some pure Miller B's.

 

lol, yeah, as soon as I came in I looked at the time and checked the GFS/GGEM and UKIE.. lol sad ..

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I like this storm period as well.  Two upper level impulses, one southern and one northern.  Phasing would bring another monster into the picture.  Models right now have a phase occurring way too far northeast into Atlantic Canada, so for now its a wait and see approach with the models.  Lets hope that the rain doesn't take away the snow pack we just got, I hate GLCs.

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There may be a more impressive signal emerging for the full latitude trough amplification there after - or both.

 

Thing is, there are enough GEF members on board to not disregard the idea - despite the rather poor performance by the GFS family as of late, one cannot unfortunately use that to preclude future solutions. 

 

The Euro being flattish is actually still a trend toward more amplitude, as the 00z run really had slightly less amplitude with the trailing impulse.  

 

One thing I am liking about the pattern is a kind of "hidden" characteristic;  the ridge in the west is just a small amount of longitude further east than a month ago.  This is allowing less heights to carve SW in the means - that then inserts less latent heat dumping into the SE ridge, making that feature less resistant to change.  It's one of the reasons why we had this amazing system overnight last night.   Therefore, the idea of the GFS to eject SW trailing dynamics readily out of that region does have a little more merit than it would have in the previous pattern/synoptic.  

 

In general, ...there is enough signal there among the various guidance to assume there will be a middling (more or less) impulse exiting the MA.  Details related to the amount of strength of the impulse, and the orientation of the northern stream through Ontario will ultimately dictate whether the system is important for SNE, or more of a middle or even lower MA system.  

 

Teleconnectors are less useful for middling impulses amid progressive flows.  The flow is still less blocked so whatever transpires then, the open wave variety is favored. 


There after ... interestingly the CPC PNA has very little... almost just like a hint of an upward modality, before coming back to a neutral state.  The CDC however, has a classic PNA spike at mid month, right centered beautifully on multi-guidance type suggestion for full latitude trough amplification.  A few of the GEF individual members go quite anomalously deep with that interval, one in particular bringing a -5SD looking quasi- closed vortex into the lower TV area.     The GGEM has the amplification, and previous Euro runs were bit more emphatic but the 12z backed off.   

 

The general theme of the mid range and extended looks to remain active.   

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