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February 8th-9th Potential Bomb Part III

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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Metsfan

Metsfan

Posted
Posted

New SREFs just kicked off the morning with a colder, wetter solution when compared to the 03 and 21z runs from last night.

 

Best of luck to all.

I still think a change over to a mix of rain/snow for the LI coast is likely during the mid morning Friday.

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted

I still think a change over to a mix of rain/snow for the coast is likely.

 

Upton is now doubting a changeover

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THELOW. FOR NOW...EXPECTING A SURGE OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE LOW ONFRIDAY THAT WOULD CHANGE INITIAL SNOWFALL TO RAIN...BUT IF THATWARMER AIR DOES NOT MAKE IT...THEN WIDESPREAD SNOW WOULD FALLTHROUGHOUT THE REGION...AND SNOWFALL TOTALS WOULD HAVE TO BEINCREASED. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...WILL CARRY 6-10 INCHESOF SNOW FOR MUCH OF NYC/NORTHEAST NJ. THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ANDLONG ISLAND WILL HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 8-12INCHES...AND CT WOULD RECEIVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS...GENERALLYRANGING FROM 18-24 INCHES OVER EASTERN ZONES. THERE WILL BELOCALLY LOWER AND HIGHER AMOUNTS. ONE OTHER NOTE OF CONCERN IS THEPOSSIBLE SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT. IF THIS MAKES IT TO THE LOCALAREA...THAT COULD RESULT IN LESS SNOWFALL...BUT MORE IN THE WAY OFSLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

I'm thinking mixing could be less of an issue for most of us, since models seem to be trying to phase quicker and they are also realizing the CAD potential. That said, I think coastal areas still mix for a brief time, but this could be mostly snow for just about all if we can prevent too much northward push with the primary. We've seen this a number of times with snow pushing into a cold dome-i.e. 12/5/03, 2/22/08, even 1/27/11. Then we should see a fast turnaround back to heavy snow as the coastal really winds up.

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IntenseBlizzard2014

IntenseBlizzard2014

Posted
Posted

What kind of ratios are we looking at for the I-287 corridor? Assuming 1.25"-1.50" QPF as mostly snow. A 10:1 average would yield 12-15" and I would imagine ratios are probably more on the 12-14:1 out that way giving 15-21" possible.

In the CCB, there'll probably be excellent dendrite formation, so 12-14:1 is within reach.

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Metsfan

Metsfan

Posted
Posted

Upton is now doubting a changeover

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THELOW. FOR NOW...EXPECTING A SURGE OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE LOW ONFRIDAY THAT WOULD CHANGE INITIAL SNOWFALL TO RAIN...BUT IF THATWARMER AIR DOES NOT MAKE IT...THEN WIDESPREAD SNOW WOULD FALLTHROUGHOUT THE REGION...AND SNOWFALL TOTALS WOULD HAVE TO BEINCREASED. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...WILL CARRY 6-10 INCHESOF SNOW FOR MUCH OF NYC/NORTHEAST NJ. THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ANDLONG ISLAND WILL HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 8-12INCHES...AND CT WOULD RECEIVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS...GENERALLYRANGING FROM 18-24 INCHES OVER EASTERN ZONES. THERE WILL BELOCALLY LOWER AND HIGHER AMOUNTS. ONE OTHER NOTE OF CONCERN IS THEPOSSIBLE SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT. IF THIS MAKES IT TO THE LOCALAREA...THAT COULD RESULT IN LESS SNOWFALL...BUT MORE IN THE WAY OFSLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

They are not doubting it. They are being careful though.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

I'm starting to wonder if this storm will be like Feb. 9th 1969...The city and points n&e got clobbered while areas to the s&w didn't do as well...it could be like Christmas 2002 with heavy snow on the back end...I'm trying not to get excited by the potential because after 50 years of weather watching I've seen to many potentials be just that...January 2011's big event started as snow but mixed with rain during the day before becoming heavy snow at night...We most likely will get the biggest storm of the season Friday...I broke out my 50+ year old shovel for this event...

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IntenseBlizzard2014

IntenseBlizzard2014

Posted
Posted

I'm starting to wonder if this storm will be like Feb. 9th 1969...The city and points n&e got clobbered while areas to the s&w didn't do as well...it could be like Christmas 2002 with heavy snow on the back end...I'm trying not to get excited by the potential because after 50 years of weather watching I've seen to many potentials be just that...January 2011's big event started as snow but mixed with rain during the day before becoming heavy snow at night...We most likely will get the biggest storm of the season Friday...I broke out my 50+ year old shovel for this event...

EDIT: Well it looking more like the Lindsay Storm+New England Blizzard of '78.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

I'm thinking mixing could be less of an issue for most of us, since models seem to be trying to phase quicker and they are also realizing the CAD potential. That said, I think coastal areas still mix for a brief time, but this could be mostly snow for just about all if we can prevent too much northward push with the primary. We've seen this a number of times with snow pushing into a cold dome-i.e. 12/5/03, 2/22/08, even 1/27/11. Then we should see a fast turnaround back to heavy snow as the coastal really winds up.

 

The danger is that the primary pushing into the Ohio Valley warms it up just enough for rain or a mix here with the first round of 

precip and then the coastal trends a little further east at the last minute tomorrow. We would still see wraparound snows at

night just that the heaviest potential remains to our NE. I would feel much better if this was a purely  southern stream event

with no primary cutting to the OV to be a fly in the ointment. We still won't know until we see the actual radar trends tomorrow

so this may be more of a nowcast special than usual.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

The danger is that the primary pushing into the Ohio Valley warms it up just enough for rain or a mix here with the first round of 

precip and then the coastal trends a little further east at the last minute tomorrow. We would still see wraparound snows at

night just that the heaviest potential remains to our NE. I would feel much better if this was a purely  southern stream event

with no primary cutting to the OV to be a fly in the ointment. We still won't know until we see the actual radar trends tomorrow

so this may be more of a nowcast special than usual.

It's definitely a threat, and we're on a very short leash here between huge amounts and not a big deal. The Euro and ensembles last night gave me a sigh of relief though, since it usually outperforms the GFS/Nam on storms like this. The fact that they actually seemed to trend more amplified is a red flag in my view. SREFs are also becoming more useful now and their trend is encouraging too.

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weatherdude888

weatherdude888

Posted
Posted

Sorry for the IMBY question but I'm a bit of a newb when it comes to these things.  When trying to gauge how much snowfall will come for my area (I live in Staten Island), is it better to use KEWR or KNYC soundings.....I've heard arguments for both and with this setup it appears that there maybe a 4 - 5 inch disparity (per the morning news at least, SI appears to be right on the mix line)

 

Much appreciated and thanks for all the knowledge

 

 

-Matthew

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

The danger is that the primary pushing into the Ohio Valley warms it up just enough for rain or a mix here with the first round of 

precip and then the coastal trends a little further east at the last minute tomorrow. We would still see wraparound snows at

night just that the heaviest potential remains to our NE. I would feel much better if this was a purely  southern stream event

with no primary cutting to the OV to be a fly in the ointment. We still won't know until we see the actual radar trends tomorrow

so this may be more of a nowcast special than usual.

two many storms spoil the broth...Feb. 5-6th 1983 is an example of that...

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IntenseBlizzard2014

IntenseBlizzard2014

Posted
Posted

The danger is that the primary pushing into the Ohio Valley warms it up just enough for rain or a mix here with the first round of

precip and then the coastal trends a little further east at the last minute tomorrow. We would still see wraparound snows at

night just that the heaviest potential remains to our NE. I would feel much better if this was a purely southern stream event

with no primary cutting to the OV to be a fly in the ointment. We still won't know until we see the actual radar trends tomorrow

so this may be more of a nowcast special than usual.

If the Northern S/W digs more, then transferring will be pretty easy after that.

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted

The danger is that the primary pushing into the Ohio Valley warms it up just enough for rain or a mix here with the first round of 

precip and then the coastal trends a little further east at the last minute tomorrow. We would still see wraparound snows at

night just that the heaviest potential remains to our NE. I would feel much better if this was a purely  southern stream event

with no primary cutting to the OV to be a fly in the ointment. We still won't know until we see the actual radar trends tomorrow

so this may be more of a nowcast special than usual.

 

Storm has been trending colder for 24 hours now, with the southern stream event moving in faster in relation to the northern stream, allowing for earlier cyclogenesis and a more notherly wind component and dynamics kicking in.  Just my two cents.

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Guest Patrick

Guest Patrick

Posted
Posted

Bluewave, it sounds like what you are describing is the March 2001 debacle.  Everyone still ended up with SOME snow, but not the 30" forecast in these parts... mostly due to the messy transfer.  The younguns on the board should read up on it, just so as not to be blinded by the broad model consensus.

 

From Ray's winter storm archive:

 

Synoptic Discussion
The original low pressure system developed over the western Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, March 3rd.  On Sunday, March 4th, this system moved northeast across the Tennessee Valley, while a high pressure built in over northern New England.  At the same time, a new low pressure began to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast.  During the day on Monday, March 5th, the new low pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic coast began to intensify rapidly as the original low pressure weakened over the Appalachians.  The new low slowly drifted north off the eastern end of Long Island late Monday night, March 5th and early Tuesday, March 6th.  It then became stationary during most of the day Tuesday, March 6th as the upper level low moved over the surface low pressure center.  The storm finally began moving eastward and away from the region early Wednesday morning, March 7th. 

Local Discussion
Precipitation spread across the state during the day Sunday, March 4th.  It began as rain across the southern portion of the state, but started as snow across central and northern sections.  During the afternoon cold air worked slowly southward, allowing the rain in southern sections to start changing to sleet and snow, mainly in areas adjacent to the Delaware River and extending eastward across Burlington and Ocean counties.  During Sunday night, warm air began working northward at mid-levels, allowing areas formerly recieving snow to change to sleet and then freezing rain.  This precipitation change spread northward across the entire state by the early morning of Monday, March 5th.  However, because cold air was still present at the surface, most areas in central and northern New Jersey continued to see an icy mixture, while areas from Burlington and Ocean counties southward saw precipitation change to all rain.  During the day Monday, as the storm moved east of the state, cold air began to move back southward across the state, allowing the rain in southern sections to change to sleet and freezing rain towards noon Monday, with areas further north seeing the sleet and freezing rain change to snow by early afternoon.  The change to snow encompassed the entire state by late afternoon, but by this time most precipitation had moved away from New Jersey.  This lull lasted until the early morning hours of Tuesday, March 6th, when bands of snow began rotating southwestward around the now stationary low pressure east of the state.  Much of northern New Jersey saw periods of heavy snow Tuesday, while areas further south saw lighter snows which had more difficulty accumulating due to the strong March sun-angle and relatively warm temperatures during the day.  The snows finally tapered off to flurries and ended Tuesday evening.  Snowfall accumulations were much lower than expected due to the storm strengthening further northeast than originally expected, as well as more mixing with sleet, freezing rain and rain than was originally expected.  However, parts of the state still saw significant snow, with parts of Sussex County recieving up to 15 inches of accumulation.  Accumulations ranged from 6 to 15 inches in Sussex County, 4 to 10 inches in Warren, Morris, and Passaic counties, 3 to 6 inches in Hunterdon, Essex, Bergen, and Hudson counties, 2 to 5 inches in Mercer, Somerset, Middlesex, and Union counties, and 1 to 3 inches in Salem, Gloucester, Camden, Burlington, Ocean, and Monmouth counties.  Less than 1 inch accumulated across Atlantic, Cumberland, and Cape May counties.

The danger is that the primary pushing into the Ohio Valley warms it up just enough for rain or a mix here with the first round of 

precip and then the coastal trends a little further east at the last minute tomorrow. We would still see wraparound snows at

night just that the heaviest potential remains to our NE. I would feel much better if this was a purely  southern stream event

with no primary cutting to the OV to be a fly in the ointment. We still won't know until we see the actual radar trends tomorrow

so this may be more of a nowcast special than usual.

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