Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Save a horse ride the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Epic storm bust? No, just interesting it does that. I wonder if the ensembles will actually be west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Throwing my hat in the ring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 15z SREF plume for BDL says "what middle finger"? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130207&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=CEF&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=42.150935689282285&mLON=-72.543141015625&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I don't think we can toss the GFS at all. With those mid level low tracks that's the type of precip you'd expect to see. Can't toss anything until we see it actually developing/coming at us Friday evening. Seems unlikely though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 No, just interesting it does that. I wonder if the ensembles will actually be west. All I want to hear is come Saturday afternoon is that you are rolling around in 6 foot drifts with your son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msg112469 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 No, just interesting it does that. I wonder if the ensembles will actually be west. GFS is not a model designed for inside 48 hours. Why is anyone even looking at it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think those GFS tracks are fairly unlikely. I would trust most of the other guidance (particularly the Euro) to handle this almost mesoscale phase more correctly than the GFS. But the GFS does show that its not a total slam dunk to get a uber wrapped up west solution. Yeah it's certainly not the most likely scenario but I don't think it can be tossed. It's certainly possible it's a more pedestrian 1"-2" liquid event as opposed to 2"+ widespread. FWIW we split the difference and when with a Euro/GFS blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is not a model designed for inside 48 hours. Why is anyone even looking at it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 You gotta do a pic with your son like the one you posted of you as a kid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Box has me >24", absolutely unreal. Wcvb still 16-24+ much of sne, matt noyes saying he'll be widely expanding the 2 foot zone on his map. Also necn showing widespread 50mph winds with possible 80mph gusts at coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Throwing my hat in the ring. That would be make very happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Toss that model as far as you possibly can. Get it the hell away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That would be make very happy sleeping through English = bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The regional GEM looks like it has a tropo fold near Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the GFS has been horrible with this storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 sleeping through English = bad lmfao, wow that was poorly written.( that would make me very happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The regional GEM looks like it has a tropo fold near Phil.I thought the Euro was close when I saw it come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This might end up one of the worst busts GFS had ever had from day one on this storm. And it'd had thousands of bad ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The regional GEM looks like it has a tropo fold near Phil. One of the earlier GFS runs was very close S of ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This might end up one of the worst busts GFS had ever had from day one on this storm. And it'd had thousands of bad ones seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The regional GEM looks like it has a tropo fold near Phil. Funny b/c I think he mentioned that yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Before everyone tosses the GFS, it's important to remember that it too has been consistent in a storm with less QPF. While I don't think it will verify, it's important to keep it on the table as just another potential solution. Odds of it verifying I think are 10-15%, in which case everyone still sees a foot, so it's not a bad situation. Do I think it's likely, no, possible, yes. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 seriously?100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The GFS may be suspicious, but I don't think you can totally toss..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Does the GFS only give us 1" of precip on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 BTV WRF almost has a Boxing Day look with a heavy slug of precip near the coast, then a deformation band from hell coupled with strong easterly upslope winds into the east slopes of the Berkshires up towards Dendrites area. We've seen that show before plenty of times lately, lol. Don't you guys always joke that a certain mountain top in CT gets 14 inches during all the big storms? BTV WRF must've factored that in, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Some nice cloud tops off the Carolina coast on the visible sattelite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Classic Tolland downslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Does it still look like some will get blasted with 50mph winds and 2" snow per hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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