earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 With the other thread becoming lengthy, we can use this new thread for the 12z model suite (post-NAM at least). Good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm getting Ultra nervous about this. Probably because my Snowstorm senses are tingling HARD. Anyway, I love the potential for this event. Could make history if everything goes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This is coming on the 3 year anniversary of the worst storm (non-storm) I can remember when DC / BALT / PHL /S NJ got crushed (1-2') and we got NOTHING. If the same thing happens only this time a miss to the north on the same day (Feb 7/8) that would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't think that I have ever seen the NAM go this ballistic even outside it's good range before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't think that I have ever seen the NAM go this ballistic even outside it's good range before. USA_SNODI_sfc_084.gif Could be signaling a MUCH earlier phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm getting Ultra nervous about this. Probably because my Snowstorm senses are tingling HARD. Anyway, I love the potential for this event. Could make history if everything goes well. Don't sweat it man, it's only snow. I think we will do just fine. We may not see 20-30"+ plus but I think we get at least a solid warning level snow for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 From a meteorological standpoint , you have to fascinated seeing the possibiltiy of 3 to 4 inches of froz liq being dropped in SNE . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This is coming on the 3 year anniversary of the worst storm (non-storm) I can remember when DC / BALT / PHL /S NJ got crushed (1-2') and we got NOTHING. If the same thing happens only this time a miss to the north on the same day (Feb 7/8) that would suck. There's definitely going to be a zone somewhere where people get very little 50 miles away from where people get slammed. That's just the nature of miller B's that develop late. The NAM is just off its rocker though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't think that I have ever seen the NAM go this ballistic even outside it's good range before. USA_SNODI_sfc_084.gif per DT, the 12z nam shows zero snow for nyc. the gfs and euro runs are huge now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not saying it couldn't happen but the nam is super bonkers with 3-5' of snow over the boston area, but it has made huge steps in the right direction. Is the QPF overdone? Yeah but even if you cut that in half boston is still getting 18+. It will be telling what the gfs does in a couple mins, we down here in the nyc region are so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't think that I have ever seen the NAM go this ballistic even outside it's good range before. USA_SNODI_sfc_084.gif is that 48 - 60 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Guys the nam always go super bonkers like this. It's best to cut it in half. We have been down this road before guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't think that I have ever seen the NAM go this ballistic even outside it's good range before. USA_SNODI_sfc_084.gif ive seen this image like 5 times this morning and it never ceases to churn my stomach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Doesn't the Northern Stream dig further south at the usual, considering that this winter has a La Nina feel to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 is that 48 - 60 ?yes sir 48-60" that is just down right crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Guys the nam always go super bonkers like this. It's best to cut it in half. We have been down this road before guys. What's your point? Even if you cut it in half it's still 25-30"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 yes sir 48-60" that is just down right crazy It's over done. Relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Northern stream looks a little more amped this run than the 6z, but nothing staggering yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looking at that sharp west to east precip gradient on the NAM, the question might be has there ever been 2 feet of snow in Montauk and no snow in Central Park? I guess it's possible - moving down the I-95 corridor, that 2/5/10 storm had 0" in Central Park, 1/2" in Newark, 1" in Elizabeth, 4" in Rahway, 6" in Metuchen, 8" in New Brunswick, 13" in Trenton, 19" in Mount Holly, and 28" in Philly! 90 miles from 0 to 28" and it's about 90 miles from CPK to the east end of LI. That would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS is running and is out to hour 33. Updates would be appreciated by many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The phase is going to happen earlier this run. Out to 42 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The phase is going to happen earlier this run. Out to 42 hrs We want this, correct? -sksiheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 48 1000 over hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 We want this, correct? -sksiheep Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's also colder this run through 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 This run is much more amplified and energetic with the northern stream through 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The phase is going to happen earlier this run. Out to 42 hrs Agreed. It's digging more than previous GFS runs. However, it will not look like the 00z Euro, in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 48 1000 over hse That's deeper than even the 00z ECMWF at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yes Starting to feel good about this then, wouldn't be suprised to see watches this afternoon reigon wide. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Phasing at 54 hours....warm so far and the phase looks to be occurring a hair too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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