USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I doubt mixing will play as big of a role in cutting down significant snowfall amounts over the Cape. I think we end up with 18"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Remember the Blizzard of 2005, a lot of local mets thought that a benchmark track will bring a nasty changeover or mix to the Cape and Islands. Pete Brochard had us in the 16-20" range, but I ended up with 35" and a slight mix. I think models overdo the mixing scenarios with the benchmark track. 2005 never really had dual 850 lows, which may have helped limit warm-layer development aloft. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2005/us0123.php I would be surprised if you don't have some mixing at least early on, but the CCB should easily make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I doubt mixing will play as big of a role in cutting down significant snowfall amounts over the Cape. I think we end up with 18"+ No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I doubt mixing will play as big of a role in cutting down significant snowfall amounts over the Cape. I think we end up with 18"+ okay, we get it. ;p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Was it just SE of the BM before...so essentially held course but is better now due to a stall... Historic... Zeus - you on the train yet? 12-18" snowstorm for us. Nice, but fairly pedestrian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12-18" snowstorm for us. Nice, but fairly pedestrian. Meaning you get 18" of snow on a regular basis? Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherEmperor Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Are snow accum rates going to be reduced by temperatures or something? I've never seen 3.0" of all snow QPF turn into just 12-18" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Gulfstream ftw. Gc qpf? About to board . Tax! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro snowfall images have a 9-10" 3-hr panel from 69-72h over SE MA. Right over Ekster's old stomping grounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Congrats guys, latitude saves you guys again. What a euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Are snow accum rates going to be reduced by temperatures or something? I've never seen 3.0" of all snow QPF turn into just 12-18" of snow. Well between some areas mixing and poor ratios that happens. Also 3" of QPF isn't for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Are snow accum rates going to be reduced by temperatures or something? I've never seen 3.0" of all snow QPF turn into just 12-18" of snow. I think the thought is to keep things 'conservative' (never thought I'd say 12-18" is conservative) because these types of QPF numbers are so rare and even though model consensus is printing them out, it wouldn't take much of a shift to slash that QPF to amounts more supportive of 12-18". Increase amounts as certainty increases if models keep printing out such obscene QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12-18" snowstorm for us. Nice, but fairly pedestrian. Yeah...although I think we can potentially crack 2 feet...ratios will be great and the QPF is there for more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro snowfall images have a 9-10" 3-hr panel from 69-72h over SE MA. Right over Ekster's old stomping grounds. I'd imagine that's convective. TSSN will be widespread most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 @MattNoyesNECN: Looking more & more like the Interstate 495 belt of interior Eastern MA will end up Fri jackpot...into Northern RI/NE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'd imagine that's convective. TSSN will be widespread most likely. What do you think about our spot in interior western CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 HPN/BDR QPF from the Euro? Folks in the NYC forums are saying 6-10" for NYC, so extrapolating that to roughly a foot for me? Does that sound about right? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What do you think about our spot in interior western CT? That place is always the jackpot...his home always jackpots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What do you think about our spot in interior western CT? I think that areas west of QPF max on models always do the best.. it seems like that always sets up over eastern new york through your area into the berks.. with this storm a slightly late bloomer and maybe just insided the Benchmark.. I am loving our position and think that we can get into a beautiful deform band friday night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Another fantastic run. Some qpf figures from the 12z ECMWF: Augusta: 1.42” Bangor: 1.10” Bedford: 2.87” Berlin: 1.24” Beverly: 2.82” Boston: 2.97” Bridgeport: 1.56” Chicopee Falls: 1.72” Concord: 1.96” Danbury: 1.41” Fitchburg: 2.51” Groton: 2.17” Hartford: 1.79” Hyannis: 2.58” Jaffrey: 2.05” Keene: 1.65” Lebanon: 1.20” Lewiston: 1.58” Manchester: 2.32” Martha’s Vineyard: 2.71” Milton: 3.03” Nashua: 2.43” New Haven: 1.68” Pittsfield: 1.38” Plymouth: 2.89” Portland: 1.99” Portsmouth: 2.44” Providence: 3.04” Taunton: 3.06” Westfield: 1.70” Worcester: 2.54” Note: Not every city receives all snow. Some areas see at least a period of sleet and/or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That place is always the jackpot...his home always jackpots... I agree.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hopefully my latitude can compensate for being so far west. But can't see squat on phone. Help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 HPN/BDR QPF from the Euro? Folks in the NYC forums are saying 6-10" for NYC, so extrapolating that to roughly a foot for me? Does that sound about right? -skisheep BDR looks like about 1.3-1.5" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Another fantastic run. Some qpf figures from the 12z ECMWF: Augusta: 1.42” Bangor: 1.10” Bedford: 2.87” Berlin: 1.24” Beverly: 2.82” Boston: 2.97” Bridgeport: 1.56” Chicopee Falls: 1.72” Concord: 1.96” Danbury: 1.41” Fitchburg: 2.51” Groton: 2.17” Hartford: 1.79” Hyannis: 2.58” Jaffrey: 2.05” Keene: 1.65” Lebanon: 1.20” Lewiston: 1.58” Manchester: 2.32” Martha’s Vineyard: 2.71” Milton: 3.03” Nashua: 2.43” New Haven: 1.68” Pittsfield: 1.38” Plymouth: 2.89” Portland: 1.99” Portsmouth: 2.44” Providence: 3.04” Taunton: 3.06” Westfield: 1.70” Worcester: 2.54” Note: Not every city receives all snow. Some areas see at least a period of sleet and/or rain. If you had to guess, how much of that 1.54 for BDR is snow? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What do you think about our spot in interior western CT? That place is always the jackpot...his home always jackpots... That joke has literally gotten so old. I think that areas west of QPF max on models always do the best.. it seems like that always sets up over eastern new york through your area into the berks.. with this storm a slightly late bloomer and maybe just insided the Benchmark.. I am loving our position and think that we can get into a beautiful deform band friday night.. I have seen that happen. In the October storm that's what happened I believe...that band pivoted through extreme E NY into the litchfield hills and Berks. Thats why most of us got around 2' and some more toward 30". I'm at school right now so I haven't really paid attention to what home looks like...but you have got to think that anywhere in the region is in a good spot for this. Still feeling ORH-TAN-BOS triangle for biggest accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 BDR looks like about 1.3-1.5" of QPF. Thanks! Any guess on how much of it is snow? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Another fantastic run. Some qpf figures from the 12z ECMWF: Augusta: 1.42” Bangor: 1.10” Bedford: 2.87” Berlin: 1.24” Beverly: 2.82” Boston: 2.97” Bridgeport: 1.56” Chicopee Falls: 1.72” Concord: 1.96” Danbury: 1.41” Fitchburg: 2.51” Groton: 2.17” Hartford: 1.79” Hyannis: 2.58” Jaffrey: 2.05” Keene: 1.65” Lebanon: 1.20” Lewiston: 1.58” Manchester: 2.32” Martha’s Vineyard: 2.71” Milton: 3.03” Nashua: 2.43” New Haven: 1.68” Pittsfield: 1.38” Plymouth: 2.89” Portland: 1.99” Portsmouth: 2.44” Providence: 3.04” Taunton: 3.06” Westfield: 1.70” Worcester: 2.54” Note: Not every city receives all snow. Some areas see at least a period of sleet and/or rain. Hey Don, would you be able to post QPF totals for the NYC area in that subforum...much appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 If you had to guess, how much of that 1.54 for BDR is snow? -skisheep Probably around 1.00" give or take a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 seeing some mets forecast 5-10" of snow for interior western and northwestern ct... that is rediculous when all models show 1.5-2.5" of qpf for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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