dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Euro emsembles should shed some light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 9250C gets to near Cape Cod briefly then collapses. Even there, it would flash to concrete and then wind driven bombdrites. Add another one in the snow lexicon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 A key here to remember guys is that the Euro hasn't been showing 3"+ QPF before this run. However, It has been consistently showing a bomb of some sort for 6 runs in a row. (with at least 1-2" QPF) The Euro is often wrong, but rarely consistently wrong. I'm excited, but keeping expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Noyes is in hiding after last storm where he called a big one that didn't pan out. No noise from Noyes may be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 As bad as this is, I think that's a reasonable solution, qpf distribution wise. Dorchester destroyer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 And let's not forget....the big man will have one helluva birthday present! Ginxy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Example a of why Boston people stick it out when interior is pummeled and we rain. Storms like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 A key here to remember guys is that the Euro hasn't been showing 3"+ QPF before this run. However, It has been consistently showing a bomb of some sort for 6 runs in a row. (with at least 1-2" QPF) The Euro is often wrong, but rarely consistently wrong. I'm excited, but keeping expectations in check. Yeah its easy to look at the Euro and start thinking that is how the storm will play out...but that is the most extreme solution yet. I'd let this play out another 24 hours before getting too bullish. I think we are getting to the point though where a warning event is pretty likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I am waiting to hear where they will be putting Jim Cantore before I decided where max QPF will be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 *as modeled* the slight capture and subsequent jog east that happens overnight with the storm is really what helps it go from a major but manageable system to something that would be borderline historic for E MA (really for pretty much the entire region actually). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 9250C gets to near Cape Cod briefly then collapses. Even there, it would flash to concrete and then wind driven bombdrites. 9250c? That seems warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 9250c? That seems warm. Oops. 925mb 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The subtropical mositure combined with that potent arctic high to the north is a really efficient combo for getting the most QPF out of this system as possible...nevermind the weenie Euro values from 12z...but even just a general 1-2" type qpf like what we see on the slightly tamer solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yeah its easy to look at the Euro and start thinking that is how the storm will play out...but that is the most extreme solution yet. I'd let this play out another 24 hours before getting too bullish. I think we are getting to the point though where a warning event is pretty likely. I strongly agree. At least, a warning-type event appears on the table for much of New England. Hopefully, of course, it will prove to be a memorable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Ekster is on board FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This antecedent reminds of PD2 particularly for the BWI area wrt to the hp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I strongly agree. At least, a warning-type event appears on the table for much of New England. Hopefully, of course, it will prove to be a memorable event. I would think a foot + is on the table at a minimum. Even if there is a cut back, I would be shocked it cut back to 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Any coastal or even more inland mixing with any of the solutions at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Oops. 925mb 0C. yeah that run verbatim probably goes snow to rain for a time friday evening then would pretty quickly flash back as the good stuff got going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 wonder if box has one of there 3 days before the storms map lol in all seriousness I cant wait to read the discussion from box this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I am waiting to hear where they will be putting Jim Cantore before I decided where max QPF will be... You didn't know Jim Cantore is a triplet? They send those boys out to the likeliest 3 spots and then broadcast from the best one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The subtropical mositure combined with that potent arctic high to the north is a really efficient combo for getting the most QPF out of this system as possible...nevermind the weenie Euro values from 12z...but even just a general 1-2" type qpf like what we see on the slightly tamer solutions. i.e. Feb 2003...that low wasnt particularly string but the STJ and the very strong high was enough to crush everyone - now if only we can get some cold air to drain down prior to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I would think a foot + is on the table at a minimum. Even if there is a cut back, I would be shocked it cut back to 8" you realize that this is still 3+ days away, don't you? We aren't 36 hours out. There is still plenty of time for this to wiggle around and produce much less snow. The 12z Euro is extreme and shouldn't be considered the baseline right now for where we start when/if there are cut backs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This antecedent reminds of PD2 particularly for the BWI area wrt to the hp. Jerry - werent temps in the teens prior to PDII, even down to NYC and PHL??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Ekster is on board FTW Like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Significant storm seems likely nothing more nothing lessif anyone asks you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Oops. 925mb 0C. Heh. I'll enjoy my snow tonight. It'd be absolutely terrific to see something like what the Euro/GFS/JMA and even the GGEM model. Amazing consensus at this time but something about regionwide multi-feet has me on edge. As modeled it's call out the national guard time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Ekster is on board FTW He's a I would think a foot + is on the table at a minimum. Even if there is a cut back, I would be shocked it cut back to 8" These are the statements we need to be careful about. A foot plus minimum is a pretty high bar to set. There are a lot of potential QPF amounts on the table, but this is how we set ourselves up for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Jerry - werent temps in the teens prior to PDII, even down to NYC and PHL??? Thursday will struggle to reach the mid 20s here ace. I'm likening us to BWI at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Any coastal or even more inland mixing with any of the solutions at this point? Always a threat with these amped up solutions. Especially before the mid-levels close off S of us. Honestly, I would not even worry about that given the scenario we're looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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