Friday February 8th Storm Potential

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

The Euro Control run just came out and has this thing developing a bit faster, as a 990mb about 125 miles off the coast of NJ and it keeps NYC 850's below freezing the whole time as it wraps up to a 980 near the Benchmark with the 1 inch precip line running back to Bergen County and coastal NJ and 1.25-1.50 in NYC and the 2-3 inch line from JFK eastward.  I am talking liquid equiv.

 

That would be so epic! The earlier secondary development would allow more cold air to drain down on stronger NE winds.

[SR Airglow]

Getting encouraged by this one, EURO verbatim is probably rain to mix to snow for me, and GFS appears to be all snow? Liking the way that this is going, dosen't take too many more shifts for NYC to get in on the action, as it is i'm already probably looking at advisory snows verbatim? or am I reading something on the models wrong, still trying to understand what it all means!

 

-skisheep

[bluewave]

We really have to watch how the northern and southern streams interact as the models get within

48hrs of the potential event. The problem is that the northern branch has been overpowering the

southern branch and the storms shift east in the last 48 hrs before the storm all season so far.

The November storm shifted east in the last 24 hrs as well as the late December storm.

If the northern stream verifies a little stronger it will suppress the southern stream slightly

further east. I won't trust this storm until I actually see what it looks like on radar the day of the storm.

 

split flow

 

[Neblizzard]

We really have to watch how the northern and southern streams interact as the models get within

48hrs of the potential event. The problem is that

the northern branch has been overpowering the

southern branch and the storms shift east in the last 48 hrs before the storm all season so far.

The November storm shifted east in the last 24 hrs as well as the late December storm.

If the northern stream verifies a little stronger it will suppress the southern stream a little

further east. I won't trust this storm until I actually see what it looks like on radar the day of the

storm.

split flow

Screen shot 2013-02-05 at 6.56.22 AM.png

It just bothers me there is no upstream blocking, rarely do we get a major snowstorm without those features in place. Very would this situation be any different?

[bluewave]

It just bothers me there is no upstream blocking, rarely do we get a major snowstorm without those features in place. Very would this situation be any different?

 

It's a really quick moving pattern so you always have to watch out for a more progressive solution within 48 hrs or so. It's not a typical big snow producing set up for our area, but New England usually can do better than us

in La Nina storms that get going further east.

 

[earthlight]

We really have to watch how the northern and southern streams interact as the models get within

48hrs of the potential event. The problem is that the northern branch has been overpowering the

southern branch and the storms shift east in the last 48 hrs before the storm all season so far.

The November storm shifted east in the last 24 hrs as well as the late December storm.

If the northern stream verifies a little stronger it will suppress the southern stream slightly

further east. I won't trust this storm until I actually see what it looks like on radar the day of the storm.

 

split flow

 

For our area, we would need a pretty dramatic change in the upper air pattern to start talking about a snowstorm here anyway. There could be some front end stuff, but the antecedent airmass is very poor and the models are still showing not only good warm air advection in the mid levels, but a warm boundary layer as well. We would need the northern stream to drive in faster and become much more organized/stronger in order to develop a stronger system and allow for cold air/dynamic cooling to do some work. I would consider the chances of that happening to be very low at this juncture.

[mikemurph44]

The 500mb pattern makes almost no sense, I cannot recall a storm of that nature with the setup we have in the upper levels.

. Got to agree with you there, as much as I'd love to have a big snowstorm the ecmwf makes zero sense. Are we to believe this storm does what it is showing without a strong nao block in front of it, no pna, and fast PAC jet flow? I think not. The euro came up with a similar wacky solution a few weeks ago when it showed the clipper blowing up and giving us a foot of snow. The pattern is too progressive right now...

[earthlight]

Surface temps would probably verify a couple of degrees colder than what's being shown given the setup. However, there is still clearly a problem with that initial primary low. Fortunately ocean temperatures are colder this time of year, so it's not the same automatic kiss of death to have some warm, southerly flow from a primary, but it still throws a huge wrench into things.

 

However, we can hope that the 1038 high can be a bit more "stubborn" with low-level cold air -- or at the very least, provide a higher dewpoint depression for evaporational cooling purposes. Hopefully the primary won't throw too much of a wrench into that.

 

Also, the Euro definitely showed a trend to more quickly erode that primary into a stronger secondary, which becomes dominant and strengthens at a further south latitude than previous runs. Hopefully this trend continues. 

 

Yeah, the Euro is 40 degrees in NYC and points south at 90 hours. Agreed on the secondary development becoming the key as well. But overall I think it's going to be very difficult for anyone south of the city to see snowfall worth writing home about from this system.

[PB GFI]

The Euro Control run just came out and has this thing developing a bit faster, as a 990mb about 125 miles off the coast of NJ and it keeps NYC 850's below freezing the whole time as it wraps up to a 980 near the Benchmark with the 1 inch precip line running back to Bergen County and coastal NJ and 1.25-1.50 in NYC and the 2-3 inch line from JFK eastward.  I am talking liquid equiv.

I just saw the Control , totally retarded . I have to give you credit , when you first posted this 4 days ago I dismissed the CCB idea  and there may wind up being some , I see the Euro surface temps but those are prob too warm if whats painted aloft is correct , you will cool the column with lapse rates and dynamic cooling . That said the real show is in South East New England where the place is getting shut down, but we are stepping in the right direction to at least see

some wintry weather with this , but I would much rather be in Hartford to Boston for this one . 

[bluewave]

For our area, we would need a pretty dramatic change in the upper air pattern to start talking about a snowstorm here anyway. There could be some front end stuff, but the antecedent airmass is very poor and the models are still showing not only good warm air advection in the mid levels, but a warm boundary layer as well. We would need the northern stream to drive in faster and become much more organized/stronger in order to develop a stronger system and allow for cold air/dynamic cooling to do some work. I would consider the chances of that happening to be very low at this juncture.

 

Yeah, that's were the +NAO and lack of 50/50 really hurts us allowing the Arctic high to slip too far east.

[Guest Patrick]

But with a primary like that and the 1038 hanging on, it also wouldn't take much for a sleetfest from about your neighborhood to mine.  Too early to talk ptype, but look at that map...that's on the table as well (a sunny day isn't out of the question either though, but we're talking this particular run).

 

 

Yeah, the Euro is 40 degrees in NYC and points south at 90 hours. Agreed on the secondary development becoming the key as well. But overall I think it's going to be very difficult for anyone south of the city to see snowfall worth writing home about from this system.

[Weathergun]

Yeah, that's were the +NAO and lack of 50/50 really hurts us allowing the Arctic high to slip too far east.

 

The Euro actually has an east-based -NAO. Which favors more snow for New England than us.

[PB GFI]

 40 on the Euro  ?  hmmm possible but with this bombing like that to the BM .(  I do think we see a lot of rain  )  you see CCB with storms like this when the max finally cuts to you`re south and east , how much ? IDK  but there`s def  some wintry wx with the Euro scenario

[bluewave]

The Euro actually has an east-based -NAO. Which favors more snow for New England than us.

 

For us, the 50/50 is too far east to hold in the cold before the storm arrives. It would be better for new England.

[earthlight]

But with a primary like that and the 1038 hanging on, it also wouldn't take much for a sleetfest from about your neighborhood to mine.  Too early to talk ptype, but look at that map...that's on the table as well (a sunny day isn't out of the question either though, but we're talking this particular run).

 

We'd need much more low level cold to drain in and the pattern is pretty poorly aligned for that to happen south of NYC's latitude.

[Weathergun]

For us, the 50/50 is too far east to hold in the cold before the storm arrives. It would be better for new England.

 

We have to kill the primary low, most of all. It's what messed us up in with the Miller B in December 30.The stronger s/w energy swing over the Ohio Valley/Lakes, supports it too much:

 

[Edge Weather]

I have been watching people dump all over this potential all week.  Anyway, here is how I see it.  We have a 1036-1038mb high over Quebec, in a very good postion, with a phasing and deepening low about 125 miles off the coast of NJ.  If this deepens quick enough, as the Euro is showing, this will be snow into NYC and Northern NJ.  The Euro has had this storm now since my initial post and creation of this thread, every single run for 5 straight runs now.  For those of you who keep on saying that the pattern has been progressive all winter, that is true, but as HM and I have been saying, this one is different.  This storm has Pacific energy potentially phasing with northern stream energy.  This has not really happened in quite a while, so we don't know how it will all work out, but the last 5 runs of the Euro may be giving us a clue.  I am not predicting a snowstorm for NYC, but I am saying that I definitely think it is a real possibility, but these systems need to phase as the Euro is showing, quicker, but the high is in great position and the low is in great position.  I am thinking this storm may actually phase a bit quicker even, if that Pacific energy is a bit stronger than currently modeled.  

[PB GFI]

UPTON

 

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 00Z/05
GFS AND THE 00Z/05 ECMWF...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH IS THAT THE
GFS HAS A TRACK SOUTH OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AS OPPOSED TO THE
ECMWF...WHICH BRINGS THE LOW RIGHT OVER THE BENCHMARK. THE GFS IS
ABLE TO PUSH SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN SNOW INITIALLY...THEN MIXING AND CHANGING TO RAIN. THE
ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS A DEEPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHICH BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA AND KEEPS THE
PRECIP AS SNOW. MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOLLOW A TRACK
SIMILAR TO...AND JUST SOUTH OF...THE 00Z GFS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE STORM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ECMWF IS ALSO DEEPER AND PRODUCES MORE QPF
THAN THE GFS.

CANNOT RULE OUT THE ECMWF...AS THAT WOULD BRING WINTER STORM WARNING

 

THEY GO ON TO SAY THEY ARE SIDING WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION FOR NOW .

stay tuned

[Edge Weather]

It's going to be tough to kill the primary since we are in a northern stream dominant pattern. We had a version of this last

February when the northern stream was too strong pushing the southern stream development further east.

 

500mb-20120211-12z.gif

 

That was the old pattern you are talking about.  The new one is quite different, and is likely to be southern stream dominant, starting Friday.  The Pacific energy is here with the Friday storm.  Different pattern and most likely a different result.  This is also why the Euro will once again outperform all other models.  The Euro is much better with the Southern Stream energy than it is with northern stream.

[bluewave]

That was the old pattern you are talking about.  The new one is quite different, and is likely to be southern stream dominant, starting Friday.  The Pacific energy is here with the Friday storm.  Different pattern and most likely a different result.  This is also why the Euro will once again outperform all other models.  The Euro is much better with the Southern Stream energy than it is with northern stream.

 

It's a split flow, not a southern stream dominant like we have during El Nino years.

 

 

 

 

 

[mikemurph44]

I just don't see how this is a nyc snowstorm without a west based nao block in place, there's not even a good pna right now. New England is a different story...

[Zir0b]

As good as the Euro model is ( not that good this winter), it has zero support from other models and should be taken with a molecule of salt. 

[Edge Weather]

As good as the Euro model is ( not that good this winter), it has zero support from other models and should be taken with a molecule of salt. 

Remember, the Euro is much higher resolution than the other models and it is this higher resolution that is why it can better see the complex interactions involved in developing this storm, phasing between two branches.  

[SR Airglow]

Euro is really warning snows for NYC? I thought temps were an issue...

 

-skisheep

[famartin]

Remember, the Euro is much higher resolution than the other models and it is this higher resolution that is why it can better see the complex interactions involved in developing this storm, phasing between two branches.  

Its also why it can goof it up, mishandling the finer details because it thinks it has more fine details correct than it actually does.

[famartin]

Euro is really warning snows for NYC? I thought temps were an issue...

 

-skisheep

Not literally, no.  BL temps are an issue. 

 

I'm not going to say this can't happen, certainly there have been instances in the not too recent past where the storm bombed but the EC temps were too warm and it ended up a lot snowier than the EC suggested even though it might've gotten the bombing right.

 

I'm am saying that extreme caution should be applied.

[Zir0b]

Remember, the Euro is much higher resolution than the other models and it is this higher resolution that is why it can better see the complex interactions involved in developing this storm, phasing between two branches.  

Euro has not had a good track record this year when it's on its own. Unless the 12z suite makes a big step toward the 0z Euro's solution, I'd expect it to back down from its outlier solution. 

[MJO812]

Euro ensemble mean

 

[jm1220]

I'm still not buying it and I likely still won't until late tomorrow at the earliest, for the reasons described above: very fast and progressive pattern, poor blocking, and stale cold air in place. There is a good subtropical disturbance in place, but again, the northern branch has been extremely powerful this year and can nudge systems east easily. The Euro has also bombed on a couple of events this winter and I don't trust it like I used to. New England has more of a shot, because they have longitude and latitude on their side. Undoubtedly, if we see a fast developing low SE of us, we will snow but it will be very difficult to get this to happen. The primary is yet again a concern and even though waters are colder now, it still presents big issues for coastal regions if the offshore low takes too long to form.

 

I would say right now that we have a 1 in 6 chance at a significant (over 4") storm, and for Boston I'd say more like 1 in 3.

[tim]

...news12 long island:

rain..44* for friday.