2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

It's a bit early in the year, but with the winter being kind of puny in terms of snowfall I figured I'd at least make this thread and let it sit for when people have downtime. The folks interested in severe weather from this forum can discuss last years events before the season and then any upcoming threats before they become imminent. 

I guess the highlight of 2012 would be the June Derecho event that sparked off the horrid "Derechosauruswrecks" nickname. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2012_North_American_derecho

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120629

June 1 was also noteworthy - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120601

September 8 looks like it had a decent number of reports locally as well - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120908

And September 18 - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120918

***********

I haven't looked at what our severe season could look like but I seem to recall Ian saying it could potentially suck. There was a good link posted over in the New England thread - really neat stuff 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/envbrowser/

I just hope we don't have too many 100 degree days...the summers can be brutal around DC. It's one of the few things we can actually do well with!!! (heat). 

[Ian]

I said it would suck mainly in a law of averages way. Last year was arguably better than 08 which was the best year since I've been here. It'll be interesting to see how Nina like the pattern stays at least going into the early season.

[Disc]

It's a bit early in the year, but with the winter being kind of puny in terms of snowfall I figured I'd at least make this thread and let it sit for when people have downtime. The folks interested in severe weather from this forum can discuss last years events before the season and then any upcoming threats before they become imminent. 

 

 

Glad to see something about severe weather posted. Now that it's been cold and I've seen snow this winter, I say bring on severe weather season

 

As for this year being suckish, I suppose that's yet to be seen. I've seen it mentioned that the ongoing drought throughout the plains will shift the severe threat east, but I'm not so sure it'll have much of an affect on us locally as it would in the SE or GLOV areas..

[Kmlwx]

I said it would suck mainly in a law of averages way. Last year was arguably better than 08 which was the best year since I've been here. It'll be interesting to see how Nina like the pattern stays at least going into the early season.

 

Maybe climate change can keep making our derechos more and more severe. :\

[Kmlwx]

I bet we see our first slight risk (doesn't necessarily mean verifying slight) in mid to late March. First real one maybe in late April. Didn't we have to wait a while last year to see any meaningful severe? 

[Disc]

Maybe climate change can keep making our derechos more and more severe. :\

 

The derecho was miserable. 81mph wind gust at the airport along with no power for a week in 100+ temps. I could do without a derecho this year. I would like to see a good hailer, though.

[Ian]

I'm not sure the drought shifts severe east as much as shuts off the season early or makes things much more sporadic like last year. East of the Plains is generally favored early anyway. We might end up with a pretty active winter though given Xmas and next week potential.

I do think the drought may amplify our odds a bit through more EML episodes etc plus the feedback tends to set up a ridge over that area which helps us get ridge riders etc.

[Kmlwx]

I'm not sure the drought shifts severe east as much as shuts off the season early or makes things much more sporadic like last year. East of the Plains is generally favored early anyway. We might end up with a pretty active winter though given Xmas and next week potential.

I do think the drought may amplify our odds a bit through more EML episodes etc plus the feedback tends to set up a ridge over that area which helps us get ridge riders etc.

 

Hawt

[Disc]

I'm not sure the drought shifts severe east as much as shuts off the season early or makes things much more sporadic like last year. East of the Plains is generally favored early anyway. We might end up with a pretty active winter though given Xmas and next week potential.

I do think the drought may amplify our odds a bit through more EML episodes etc plus the feedback tends to set up a ridge over that area which helps us get ridge riders etc.

 

I like.

 

I'll take back what I said about no derecho, but only if my power stays on this time.

[Kmlwx]

I like.

 

I'll take back what I said about no derecho, but only if my power stays on this time.

 

If you weren't all the way down there in Roanoke I'd say come hang out here if your power goes out - 17kw generator works wonders. Barring any tree falling on my house, I feel a little bit less bad when I get excited about severe now. 

[Ian]

I'm not even sure I liked the derecho. Though maybe it was just the circumstances. Next one I'll definitely park myself inside until it hits.

I have no long range skill so my guess is as good as anyone's about the year. If we do assume the drought sticks around and there's no reason to think it won't, it seemingly would open up the door for some higher-end event given the flow around it. So on that end I guess I'd probably go 50/50 good... maybe even 60/40.. I just don't really know at all what we're looking at patternwise heading into the year. One plus for us is our convective season is pretty long.

We're due for a legit strong tornado/violent tornado in the region.

[yoda]

I'm not even sure I liked the derecho. Though maybe it was just the circumstances. Next one I'll definitely park myself inside until it hits.

I have no long range skill so my guess is as good as anyone's about the year. If we do assume the drought sticks around and there's no reason to think it won't, it seemingly would open up the door for some higher-end event given the flow around it. So on that end I guess I'd probably go 50/50 good... maybe even 60/40.. I just don't really know at all what we're looking at patternwise heading into the year. One plus for us is our convective season is pretty long.

We're due for a legit strong tornado/violent tornado in the region.

 

Like an EF2/EF3?  I dont think our region is really conducive to anything higher than an EF3, not withstanding the La Plata F4.  This region has so much infrastructure and highways I would be a bit worried if a large supercell dropped a long-track EF3 around rush hour... it would not be pretty

[Kmlwx]

I'm not even sure I liked the derecho. Though maybe it was just the circumstances. Next one I'll definitely park myself inside until it hits.

I have no long range skill so my guess is as good as anyone's about the year. If we do assume the drought sticks around and there's no reason to think it won't, it seemingly would open up the door for some higher-end event given the flow around it. So on that end I guess I'd probably go 50/50 good... maybe even 60/40.. I just don't really know at all what we're looking at patternwise heading into the year. One plus for us is our convective season is pretty long.

We're due for a legit strong tornado/violent tornado in the region.

Though in recent years we seem to have done really well getting EF0's and EF1's. June 1 is a good example. I haven't even looked at/heard anything about tropical stuff for this year. 

April and September are always months to look at for strong tornadoes here (just given College Park and La Plata). Though I'm sure if I pulled out my weather books I'd find strong naders in other months too here. I'm just too young to have a good mental data set. 

OT, but in 2001 I remember the afternoon of the College Park tornado huddled around in the basement with my family (they all thought I was overreacting) when the news was mentioning like towns 1 mile away from me. In reality...the big damage was a good bit away from me...but definitely one of my scary weather moments. 

Whenever we have a particularly slow period of weather (I def consider this winter slow so far)...I always say it will come to an end with a bang. So either HM is right and something huge happens before winter is done...or we end up getting smacked around at least once this severe season. 

[Kmlwx]

I'm glad my thread at least generated a little discussion. It's a welcome break from the monotony of having a dagger stuck through our hearts on snow. Maybe I'll go through my typical pre-spring severe weather research phase. 

[yoda]

Though we havent had a real hailer -- like golf ball sized or bigger -- in quite a while around here.  I know some SWS's would say hail to the size of ping pong balls last summer... but it seems we always get the wind.  As Ian said, we need a real decent EML in here... I remember a few years ago in the summer time, someone in S VA had storms roll through with baseball sized hail

[Disc]

If you weren't all the way down there in Roanoke I'd say come hang out here if your power goes out - 17kw generator works wonders. Barring any tree falling on my house, I feel a little bit less bad when I get excited about severe now. 

 

Hey, I'd gladly take that offer up if I were closer. 

 

Actually, we just had a bunch of trees removed so hopefully I won't have to worry about trees on the house; Just other people's trees knocking my power out! We finally invested in a generator after the derecho, though. It provided some relief from the horrid heat and humidity. 

 

As for hail, I'd be more enthusiastic if we had a garage for our cars. I'm wary of wishing for a BIG hailer that tears everything up.

[Kmlwx]

Hey, I'd gladly take that offer up if I were closer. 

 

Actually, we just had a bunch of trees removed so hopefully I won't have to worry about trees on the house; Just other people's trees knocking my power out! We finally invested in a generator after the derecho, though. It provided some relief from the horrid heat and humidity. 

 

As for hail, I'd be more enthusiastic if we had a garage for our cars. I'm wary of wishing for a BIG hailer that tears everything up.

We'll run an underground cable  

- Hail is so cool to see but the damage is just not worth it usually. Unfortunately...mother nature will do what she wants...so I figure if it's going to be large hail why not get excited :|

[Kmlwx]

In other news...I can't wait for Yoda to copy and paste the good parts of the warnings. I do kind of hope Ellinwood comes back for severe season

[yoda]

In other news...I can't wait for Yoda to copy and paste the good parts of the warnings. I do kind of hope Ellinwood comes back for severe season

That is how I have about 4x as many posts as you do

 

I think our first few severe threats will probably be marginal ones... or "meh" as Ian would call it.  We usually have a few of those before we get a good one, sometime in April or May

[Kmlwx]

That is how I have about 4x as many posts as you do

 

I think our first few severe threats will probably be marginal ones... or "meh" as Ian would call it.  We usually have a few of those before we get a good one, sometime in April or May

Well it also depends on what kind of severe you want. You generally aren't going to get the big hailers with weak updrafts so super late in season is out and probably super early too. Our regions BIG tornadoes seem to like early season and toward the end (I guess stronger storm systems and overall dynamics to work with). If you want a derecho (like an actual derecho...not one of those fake derechos) you probably want a really hot summer day like our June 29th one last year. 

I don't know how many here have the DC Weather Book (the one with Kevin Ambrose pics) - but it has some cool history on storms in our area. That used to be my daily lunch reading material in high school. 

[Ian]

Like an EF2/EF3?  I dont think our region is really conducive to anything higher than an EF3, not withstanding the La Plata F4.  This region has so much infrastructure and highways I would be a bit worried if a large supercell dropped a long-track EF3 around rush hour... it would not be pretty

The La Plata tor is probably not as unusual as it seems. I mean, it's not necessarily more than a once or twice a decade event but I don't think it's a 1 in 100 year event or something. The whole area is at least at some risk from a violent tornado given that they have occurred nearby and to the north. Questionable we could get an EF-5, but 4 is certainly within out climo. Of course part of it is getting it to hit something to get the rating which is somewhat difficult anywhere.

sig tors in the area since 1950 (not including 2012--tho not sure there were any in the region):

[Ian]

Though we havent had a real hailer -- like golf ball sized or bigger -- in quite a while around here.  I know some SWS's would say hail to the size of ping pong balls last summer... but it seems we always get the wind.  As Ian said, we need a real decent EML in here... I remember a few years ago in the summer time, someone in S VA had storms roll through with baseball sized hail

this isn't a very good area for big hail. it happens sporadically but most places have very poor "hail climo" compared to storm expectations. it's more or less the exception to the rule to see hail of any sort in most storms here it seems.

[yoda]

The La Plata tor is probably not as unusual as it seems. I mean, it's not necessarily more than a once or twice a decade event but I don't think it's a 1 in 100 year event or something. The whole area is at least at some risk from a violent tornado given that they have occurred nearby and to the north. Questionable we could get an EF-5, but 4 is certainly within out climo. Of course part of it is getting it to hit something to get the rating which is somewhat difficult anywhere.

sig tors in the area since 1950 (not including 2012--tho not sure there were any in the region):

Untitled-12.jpg

EF4's just seem rare in this region -- we need everything to come together for those.  BTW, where did you get that map?  I see an F4 near EZF and am wondering what/when that was

[yoda]

this isn't a very good area for big hail. it happens sporadically but most places have very poor "hail climo" compared to storm expectations. it's more or less the exception to the rule to see hail of any sort in most storms here it seems.

True... most of the severe weather threats here are high instability and good LL lapse rates... but the ML lapse rates are always atrocious -- 6.0 C/KM.  We need a decent EML for good hail here -- also to bring about a decent ML Lapse Rate (i.e bigger than quarters)  I do remember a couple storms that had golf ball sized hail around here... but those storms seem like a thing of the past

[Ian]

EF4's just seem rare in this region -- we need everything to come together for those.  BTW, where did you get that map?  I see an F4 near EZF and am wondering what/when that was

yeah for sure.. getting one in the broader region is probably that once every one to two decade type of event. though arguably a number of 3s are 4s if they hit the right things.

map from here: http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/

haven't really looked at the new spc tor mapper yet.. might as well drop these graphics here tho.

[Ian]

That new SPC site is pretty awesome though. Just looking through the distributions (which you can break down by cold season, QLCS, etc)... how things differ by region etc. Can get lost in there for a while I'm sure. Should be helpful for forecasting too with the easily identifiable benchmarks.

[Ian]

Next week has some serious potential too (not here).. look at the dates. Super Tuesday et al. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg=

Feb is kind of the turning point where spring starts to make itself known in the U.S. Almost there.

[FXW176]

sig tors in the area since 1950 (not including 2012--tho not sure there were any in the region):

You're forgetting the Chantilly tor from last Sept.

[yoda]

Nice Ian... thanks for those.

 

This would be a frightening scenario if it were to repeat -- http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/19790905.51.7

 

EF3 crosses the Beltway twice... at rush hour

[Disc]

True... most of the severe weather threats here are high instability and good LL lapse rates... but the ML lapse rates are always atrocious -- 6.0 C/KM.  We need a decent EML for good hail here -- also to bring about a decent ML Lapse Rate (i.e bigger than quarters)  I do remember a couple storms that had golf ball sized hail around here... but those storms seem like a thing of the past

 

I've personally never experienced hail larger than quarter-sized living here in VA. We had a darn good hailer back in August of last year and that thing was putting down quarter size hail like crazy, but it was just by chance it ended up over me. Most of the parameters were only marginal that day.

 

We'll run an underground cable  

- Hail is so cool to see but the damage is just not worth it usually. Unfortunately...mother nature will do what she wants...so I figure if it's going to be large hail why not get excited :|

 

Very much agree. I love to see it, but hate the damage it causes.