Marion_NC_WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS and Euro has picked up on the arctic air that's in place...now the question is: How Much overrunning associated with our next arctic front? Please discuss here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 WxSouth just said this about the Canadian. Canadian model also looks more like ECMWF with a moderately strong Winter storm as a low develops in the Tenn Valley and hits cold air damming on Friday. This model is much more agressive with the precip and lift than GFS. This would be a decent snowfalll for most of Virginia and northern NC, and up the Immediate coast, with significant icing in Upstate SC and central Piedmont NC, after getting its start in northern and eastern TN, and dropping some snow and sleet TN, KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NoGaps maybe ticked a hair south from it's 0z run, looks similar to the CMC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Everything is trending Euroish, no suprise here so far. Hard to beat the euro back to back runs inside 5 days with agreement from it's ensembles. IN NC triad temps arent gonna be the concern moreso than qpf. CAN,Ukie(72) both line up well with the Euro. GFS 12z is dry and it's ensembles are pretty much in agreement with the op/. I will be curious to see the members though, I am hoping there are several really dry ones and several more amped up ones... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I will be curious to see the members though, I am hoping there are several really dry ones and several more amped up ones... I don't know. It looked like that the 12 ensemble mean was wetter than both the 6z and 0z ensemble runs of the GFS for our area. I may be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't know. It looked like that the 12 ensemble mean was wetter than both the 6z and 0z ensemble runs of the GFS for our area. I may be wrong though. Just looked at them they sucked, there was 2 or 3 wetter ones that looked close to the CMC/NoGaps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 From WxSouth. Sounds like the most of the models are closer to the Euro than the GFS. I think the bolded part is key. Looking at all the new models coming in now, and only one remains to be seen: ECMWF (european). The new UKMET model also leans toward ECMWF and Canadian runs in a significant system. In fact UKMET digs the energy so far west that it taps a lot of moisture and would be a MAJOR Winter storm from Upstate SC northward through Interior NC and almost all of Virginia with strong damming and a lot of moi...sture falling in the subfreezing air. Here's a look at UKMET model for Friday morning at the jetstream level (this is much more intense and dynamic than GFS). The energy to create this storm isn't on the West Coast yet, so when that feature gets sampled well in the models, we'll start to see all of them come into better agreement one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Even if the GFS is dry, a tenth of an inch of freezing rain given the antecedent conditions, is a high impact event in CLT. I'd imagine all the flyover ramps would freeze over quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Nogaps ticked ever so slightly south and the Canadian, eh, was south also. That's a powerhouse combo right there, I'm tellin ya. Anyway good trends continue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Even if the GFS is dry, a tenth of an inch of freezing rain given the antecedent conditions, is a high impact event in CLT. I'd imagine all the flyover ramps would freeze over quickly. Same for RDU. People would be wrecking all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Even if the GFS is dry, a tenth of an inch of freezing rain given the antecedent conditions, is a high impact event in CLT. I'd imagine all the flyover ramps would freeze over quickly. Ditto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Uh Oh on the Euro, you can already tell at hour 66 it's not going to be like the 0z run, looks very GFS like.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 @72 Euro is colder and further south not as juicy though Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 @90 euro is snow for I40 NC ZR for CLT area Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Caving is sending it into the ohio valley, not cutting down precip one or two tenths of an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wow, on the Euro, very similar to the GFS, but a little further south and a little wetter, probably a nice 1-3" for majority of NC, outside of far south/east part of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Caving is sending it into the ohio valley, not cutting down precip one or two tenths of an inch With the HP the runs are not going to punch it through the arctic air and into the OH valley. Guess I was looking for the EURO to show something more positive toward the other global models. Hey Burger do you have QPF output as of yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Nice event for southern VA and NC on the Euro. Probably 0.25-0.40" precip for majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Nice event for southern VA and NC on the Euro. Probably 0.25-0.40" precip for majority. Better than 10;1 ratios maybe some 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 With the HP the runs are not going to punch it through the arctic air and into the OH valley. Guess I was looking for the EURO to show something more positive toward the other global models. Hey Burger do you have QPF output as of yet? I would say 2 - 4 of snow for central and northern NC probably W-S north and in to VA. Hard to say what something like CLT would get. Looks like ZR to snow maybe an inch or so? Also I agree that this did not cave at all the GFS...just a little colder and lighter with the precip...if anything it went a hair south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 850 line on the Euro runs roughly from the norther part of Cleveland county up to Mooresville and then across the state. It could be that the ZR is minimal given the temps. Like this trend though on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I would say 2 - 4 of snow for central and northern NC probably W-S north and in to VA. Hard to say what something like CLT would get. Looks like ZR to snow maybe an inch or so? Also I agree that this did not cave at all the GFS...just a little colder and lighter with the precip...if anything it went a hair south. From what you describe, it doesn't sound like anything for TN, but eastern KY and southwest VA have been looking good with prior model runs. What does it show for those areas Burger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Better than 10;1 ratios maybe some 15:1 That's nice to hear. We don't need anymore wet snow and with higher ratios you don't need huge amounts of precip to get a decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wow, on the Euro, very similar to the GFS, but a little further south and a little wetter, probably a nice 1-3" for majority of NC, outside of far south/east part of NC. Is that just for snow? What about the icing issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 All snow below, unless noted. RDU - 0.3" RWI - 0.34" INT - 0.24" GSO - 0.25" HKY - 0.20" CLT - 0.21" ( looks like would mix some some, all frozen though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Can someone please describe EURO QPF from ATL northward in GA? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So, the Euro shows all snow this time for RDU? No ice at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Guess I jumped the gun a little bit guys sorry about that. Just frustrated this winter. Looking at the EURO def. agree with Burger and NCSnow not as bad at first glance. Would def. prefer a more southern colder track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 All snow below, unless noted. RDU - 0.3" RWI - 0.34" INT - 0.24" GSO - 0.25" HKY - 0.20" CLT - 0.21" ( looks like would mix some some, all frozen though) AVL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 From what you describe, it doesn't sound like anything for TN, but eastern KY and southwest VA have been looking good with prior model runs. What does it show for those areas Burger? NE sections of TN would be snow per the Euro roughly from Knoxville north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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