wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Since we are under 144 hours and both the GFS and Euro are showing a decent system ushering in a potential warmup with a smorgasbord of precip types, it is worth opening a thread for this next system which looks to have more juice with it...for now anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Oh my, the Euro looks good for those in C and S Illinois for a few inches with this system, but finds yet another way to screw Chicago and Milwaukee. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Oh my, the Euro looks good for those in C and S Illinois for a few inches with this system, but finds yet another way to screw Chicago and Milwaukee. Unreal. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Clipper thread = fail Thu-Fri storm thread = fail This thread = ??? (although I have a hunch) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Clipper thread = fail Thu-Fri storm thread = fail This thread = ??? (although I have a hunch) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Looking at soundings north of I-80 is would be snow to some sleet or freezing rain right at the end near 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Lol...it is either rain or way to the south. That is what happens a lot with these split jet patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'll believe it when I see it on the ground.... until then.............................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Last night's Euro had 3-4" around here. Weird little wave that the models are trying to get going with a slug of moisture coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro pretty much back to its 0z look, though temps more marginal than that run. Verbatim, looks pretty darn solid for S Wisconsin at the start of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro spitting out 4-5" of snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Almost definitely too bullish, but the 12z GEM is going bonkers with this system in C and S Wisconsin; has nearly 20 mm (about 0.8" QPF) of snow from La Crosse to Sheboygan essentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 looking good for north of here. DAB on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12z Euro still likes this. Might even get a little mix in LAF, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 12z Euro still likes this. Might even get a little mix in LAF, verbatim. Yep, seems to show a general 2-4" in the DVN, MSN, MKE, ORD quadrangle (with 850s between 0 and -4C it should be mostly snow for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12z Euro still likes this. Might even get a little mix in LAF, verbatim. There should be enough residual cold air to give us something wintry at the beginning. The warm air won't be denied though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 There should be enough residual cold air to give us something wintry at the beginning. The warm air won't be denied though. Of course it won't. But need to get the precip in here first. Something to watch anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks like Euro drops about 3-4" here before changing over to some sleet and mid levels warm a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If only we had all of those looks like inches of snow we'd be doing fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If only we had all of those looks like inches of snow we'd be doing fine. toss in the verbatims and I'm sitting at over 60" on the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 toss in the verbatims and I'm sitting at over 60" on the year. and it looks like we continue this pattern in to feb for some time. Would think something has to give and we get at least a low end warning event yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Kind of an interesting event if current model forecasts hold. Wouldn't be a pure snow event here, but would be a pretty rare 4-phase event starting with snow. Taking the new 00z GEM verbatim we would have a few hours of decent snowfall, followed by a few hours of sleet, then a few hours of freezing rain, and then finally end as non-freezing rain. That type of event is pretty unusual, so I remain skeptical. More than likely it will end up being a very brief period of wet flakes followed by sleet, and then a brief period of freezing rain before going over to a predominately rain system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Euro looks pretty similar to the 12z. The biggest issue to me is similar to the event a couple weeks ago, the sneaky warm layer potential that could be the difference between a 3-5" snow event and a half inch to an inch of sleet. The 850s look solid around here on most of the models at this early point, but the GFS runs have shown a small warm layer somewhere between 500 and 850 mb sneaking in based on the Wxcaster maps I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Euro looks pretty similar to the 12z. The biggest issue to me is similar to the event a couple weeks ago, the sneaky warm layer potential that could be the difference between a 3-5" snow event and a half inch to an inch of sleet. The 850s look solid around here on most of the models at this early point, but the GFS runs have shown a small warm layer somewhere between 500 and 850 mb sneaking in based on the Wxcaster maps I have seen. The GFS bufkit soundings show the 800-900mb layer above freezing so we would probably transition from snow to freezing rain and then rain at the very end as surface temps climb above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS would be almost all snow this far north until after 102 hours. Twisterdata. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The GFS bufkit soundings show the 800-900mb layer above freezing so we would probably transition from snow to freezing rain and possibly rain at the very end as surface temps climb above freezing. Even you guys up there having to deal with precip issues weakens confidence in the quantity of wintry precip here prior to the inevitable changeover. Wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being a 90% rain event down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 The GFS bufkit soundings show the 800-900mb layer above freezing so we would probably transition from snow to freezing rain and then rain at the very end as surface temps climb above freezing. Oh, I thought sleet was likely just by having a warm layer somewhere between 500 and say 850 to 900mb. Is 800-900 mb the standard layer for warmth that would indicate fzra? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Oh, I thought sleet was likely just by having a warm layer somewhere between 500 and say 850 to 900mb. Is 800-900 mb the standard layer for warmth that would indicate fzra? Usually with sleet you want your warm layer to be around 850mb or higher. The lower the warm layer is to the surface the less time the water droplet has to refreeze. The depth of the warm layer also makes a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS would be almost all snow this far north until after 102 hours. Twisterdata. Why do you only use the 1000-850mb line to determine the all snow line? If there's one thing I learned from the recent sleet storm, it's that none of the lines, even the 850-500mb 0C line, can be north of your location if you are to be confident of receiving snow in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Why do you only use the 1000-850mb line to determine the all snow line? If there's one thing I learned from the recent sleet storm, it's that none of the lines, even the 850-500mb 0C line, can be north of your location if you are to be confident of receiving snow in that period. I looked at the soundings. Sounding for this location at 96 hours. All snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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