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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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He is already in full weenie mode.

i think pretty much all the skeptics except maybe psuhoff are on board to some degree. he seems to think it will never snow again... which means he's getting about 8-10 from this one.

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i think pretty much all the skeptics except maybe psuhoff are on board to some degree. he seems to think it will never snow again... which means he's getting about 8-10 from this one.

Meh. I'll believe it when I see it actually snow

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Might not be horrid but accu never usually turns down a 95 hit.

 

At the end it may be correct, but after looking at the 12z model runs how can he put us in the mix area. He could have at least put us in the C-3" that would have been more sane. Anyway any sane forecaster would never put out a snow map 4 days in advance.

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ADDITIONALLY...A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD WEDGE FROM ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE

ORIGINATING IN ONTARIO PENETRATES THE MID ATLANTIC AND HOLDS ON

MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES SW TO NE

ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO A POSITION NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE

EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE

COLD WEDGE...PRODCUING A MIX OF WINTER WEATHER PTYPES FOR THE

REGION. LOOKS TO BE MAINLY A SLEET-FZRA EVENT ATTM AS H85-H7

THICKNESS VALUES ARE ABOVE 1540M WHILE THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS

FALLING DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI...WHILE 1000-850MB THICKNESS IS

UNDER 1300M. EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NW 1/3RD OF CWA WHERE THE COLUMN

IS COOLER THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE STORM. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN LOW

TRACK ATTM TO PROVIDE ANY FINER DETAILS.

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LOL, it did.

Reading some of the model diagnostic stuff, they don't seem to have much faith in the NAM

 

actually, it didn't.  It was the 1st model to forecast the watch criteria storm while the euro had zilch.  Later, it jumped south while the Eruo still had little. Only in the last 12 hours did it win when the euro somehow decided to go wet. 

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In my previous post< I'm not trying to say the NAm solution is wrong. It may not be but it was not that good in the longer time ranges last storm.  Right now the spread of possible tracks is between the NAM and Euro with the two most skillful models on the southern end.  The lack of a real negative NAO leaves me feeling a little uneasy.  In all likelhood the models will probably continue to waffle back and forth for another couple of days

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Like Wes said, "the models will probably continue to waffle back and forth for another couple of days". By Wed we will know a lot more on this event. You would think by now the majority of us would built calluses on the brain with the consistent let downs. I for sure have not built them yet but missing out on Fridays event sure could do it in for many. Lol

Good Luck everyone!!!

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Like Wes said, "the models will probably continue to waffle back and forth for another couple of days". By Wed we will know a lot more on this event. You would think by now the majority of us would built calluses on the brain with the consistent let downs. I for sure have not built them yet but missing out on Fridays event sure could do it in for many. Lol

Good Luck everyone!!!

I think all of your posts you just take what somebody else has said and say it in a slightly different way ;)  :sun:

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