Snow_Miser Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 To separate the forecast discussion from the banter in the other thread, here is a discussion thread for the upcoming events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Thanks. I was wondering when this was going to be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 84hr NAM looks to be building weak high pressure over Maine thus the h850 dips down into central Jersey despite the southeast ridge flexing its muscle. Could be a nice little SWF event for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 The 3z SREFs have somewhat decent snow probabilities for the Tuesday-Wednesday system for NJ, but FWIW it's their long range so take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 The 00z ECMWF last night focused on the Wave coming in on Tuesday like the GFS. The CMC and the UKMET focus on the second wave. The 00z ECMWF also popped up a storm around the 20th, which has been a date many have been talking about on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 You have to wonder about the UKMET solution, which would appear to be a snowy one for our area. It is currently performing best of all the models in the 5-6 day range, although this is a 4-5 day threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 84 hr NAM appears very similar to the 96 hr UKMET from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 84 hr NAM appears very similar to the 96 hr UKMET from last night. Looks like instead of the first wave, it's focusing on the second wave now like the CMC and the UKMET. It was focusing on the first wave yesterday like the GFS and the ECMWF. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Thanks. I was wondering when this was going to be made. You're welcome. I was wondering the same thing myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Gfs looks pretty good for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Gfs looks pretty good for Tuesday. Yeah, actually a surprisingly decent amount of precipitation with this when it's all set and done. Around 0.5" of precipitation for TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 The 12z CMC is more suppressed than the 00z run this morning and the 12z run yesterday. I think we see a middle solution form that is between the 12z CMC from yesterday and the 12z GFS from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Hr 66 12z euro has .05 to NYC. 850's at 0. But surface is warm. Looks to be light rain at this hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Hr 72 NYC north is all frozen. But total preciep is very light .05. Hr 78 all over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 It's kind of hard to tell with regard to what the 12z UKMET has as a solution. Here at hour 96 it has a weak low in the SE, and on the next frame at hour 120 it has a strong Low by Nova Scotia. Hard to tell what exactly happened between frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Hr 72 NYC north is all frozen. But total preciep is very light .05. Hr 78 all over its the event coming after that between 90 and 102 that holds more promise. That event had some nice QPF on the GFS. Euro looks slightly wetter and further north as of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 indeed gets precip up to central NJ by 90. Further north than 00z Edit: and south shore of LI by 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 indeed gets precip up to central NJ by 90. Further north than 00z Edit: and south shore of LI by 96 Yes gets light snow up to NYC. Phl does well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Yes gets light snow up to NYC. Phl does well I think this is our shot for a nice 1-3in storm with cold air already established (as opposed to initial overrunning where cold air is incoming as precip begins). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 its the event coming after that between 90 and 102 that holds more promise. That event had some nice QPF on the GFS. Euro looks slightly wetter and further north as of 84 It did come north, and gives CNJ-S NJ some light snow. Not a bad trend. Like I said, I expect the final outcome to be somewhere between a completely suppressed solution and the CMC solution from yesterday, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Euro looks to get some pretty good cold in here by 138. -16 850's nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Euro looks to get some pretty good cold in here by 138. -16 850's nearby Edit: gets down to about -17 or -18 at 144. Wouldn't be bone chilling but a high in the mid 20's type a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Euro is more north with the precip. Not bad this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 The ECMWF has a very very strong cold shot after hour 192. Thicknesses get below 504 in the city, and close to 498. Very very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 JMA at 96 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 JMA at 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The 12z ECM has two very impressive cold shots. The first cold shot at Day 6 has 850s of -16C to -18C in the area. Places with snow cover in the northwest suburbs would not make it much past 20F for highs with lows in the single digits. Here is the frame: The second cold shot is when the PV comes south, and it brings the coldest airmass our area has seen in years....definitely the coldest since January 2004 and maybe since January 1994. I wouldn't be surprised if the City finally hits 0F sometime around this frame: \ As others have pointed out, the eastern US is due for a major arctic outbreak. With the renewed blocking since Winter 08-09, many places in the mid-latitudes have seen periods of record cold: NNE in Jan 2009, Western Europe and the Southeast U.S in December 2010, Eastern Europe and Northern Africa in February 2012, and China/Russia in December 2012. I think it is finally our turn for some serious cold with the MJO moving towards Phase 7 and the stratospheric warming causing a -EPO/-NAO/-AO look in the hemisphere. I wouldn't be surprised if another shot of severe cold arrives at Day 15, as the models seem to have a shot of -25C air brewing in the Canadian Prairies on the east side of a -EPO ridge axis after the PV descends and provides the second, most extreme shot. To summarize, I expect very cold air around January 18th, an arctic outbreak around January 23rd, and a renewed shot of arctic air around January 27th. Could be a very exciting 3-4 weeks around here... The ECMWF has a very very strong cold shot after hour 192. Thicknesses get below 504 in the city, and close to 498. Very very cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Nam at 66 is phasing. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 DT is on board for serious cold and potential snow chances - let's hope he and the models are correct - I'd love to see some winter... http://www.facebook.com/#!/notes/wxriskcom/big-jake-severe-maybe-historic-cold-for-much-of-the-country-increasingly-likely-/469588983088365 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The cold could rival February 1996 or January 1994.. Now that's some incredible cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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