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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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New thread, so I'll post the last days of the current snow pack in here too:

 

 

 

 

 

Came home to still very good snow pack, but there is quite the gradient developing between 495 and here and elevation too...crapp cell phone pics so no flash FTL. Still nearly 8" at the stick

 

 

6p1c1k.jpg

 

 

 

35izqxf.jpg

 

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Also I'd hit the 11-15 Euro ensembles any day....that's pretty nice. A bit of relaxation but still plenty good enough for lots of storm threats. It manages to establish the NAO block over Greenland to hold that PV in SE Canada for a while...and let it slowly die there and maybe retrograde a bit back NW...but looks good for NE.

 

 

Weeklies looked awesome too.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Still plenty of snow here. Sunday will be tough.

 

Yeah I keep thinking we might survive with decent cover...because the pack is really tough and high water content, but its going to get absolutely shredded and assaulted for a long time on Sunday/Sunday night...hopefully not Saturday though.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Also I'd hit the 11-15 Euro ensembles any day....that's pretty nice. A bit of relaxation but still plenty good enough for lots of storm threats. It manages to establish the NAO block over Greenland to hold that PV in SE Canada for a while...and let it slowly die there and maybe retrograde a bit back NW...but looks good for NE.

Weeklies looked awesome too.

Sounds fantastic. Meow this Scooter scaredity cat. Lol.
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Sounds fantastic. Meow this Scooter scaredity cat. Lol.

 

If the Euro ensembles and its weeklies are correct, we will be having a lot of fun over the next month. But as always, you have to wait and see how the pattern evolves over the next week...its volatile so we can see models shift a lot. That's always the case in an absolute sense, but even more so than usual right now. Especially with the MJO uncertainty.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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If the Euro ensembles and its weeklies are correct, we will be having a lot of fun over the next month. But as always, you have to wait and see how the pattern evolves over the next week...its volatile so we can see models shift a lot. That's always the case in an absolute sense, but even more so than usual right now. Especially with the MJO uncertainty.

the cold is firmly established not far from here, sh it I saw soundings today for next week in Ontario province not far from Toronto of -35 at the surface. The cold is expansive and expanding. I love the look and agree totally with how the Euro plays the 5 H features out. Throw any type of STJ into the mix and powder kegs explode. Give me some MOJO MJO
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weathafella

weathafella

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Also I'd hit the 11-15 Euro ensembles any day....that's pretty nice. A bit of relaxation but still plenty good enough for lots of storm threats. It manages to establish the NAO block over Greenland to hold that PV in SE Canada for a while...and let it slowly die there and maybe retrograde a bit back NW...but looks good for NE.

Weeklies looked awesome too.

Pray tell....

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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The modeling indeed does remind me of January 1961

 

It's been so long since we've had a really strong February.  Remember when Todd Gross was in Boston, he and Harv always talked about the first week in February being the week for big snows.  Been many years.

 

Maybe what we're seeing is the first cold shot spins down, we ease for a bit and then we really do get the full dump.  Let's hope.

 

Jerry can you check your PMs I have a non-weather question for you.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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It's been so long since we've had a really strong February.  Remember when Todd Gross was in Boston, he and Harv always talked about the first week in February being the week for big snows.  Been many years.

 

Maybe what we're seeing is the first cold shot spins down, we ease for a bit and then we really do get the full dump.  Let's hope.

 

Jerry can you check your PMs I have a non-weather question for you.

 

Last great February was 2005...though maybe even Feb 2003....Feb 2005 might just be classified as "good" and not great. 2007 was quite good in the interior.

 

First week of Feb 2011 produced, but the torch soured the month in the middle and then it was dry for a long stretch there too despite the month being below average for temps.

 

We are def "due" for a great February. The weeklies say February is going to rock at least through the first half. But that is week 4 at the end and we know how reliable that is.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Yeah cpick...BOS blew its load in Feb 2003 having their snowiest Feb on record with 41.6" and then have paid the price since then, lol. Climo's a b**ch sometimes. They did have 15" in Feb '08, 20" in Feb '06, and 18.5" in Feb '11, but those were a bit of a paper tiger.

 

Still nothing compared to the stretch of total dud Februarys from '84-'92.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Yeah cpick...BOS blew its load in Feb 2003 having their snowiest Feb on record with 41.6" and then have paid the price since then, lol. Climo's a b**ch sometimes. They did have 15" in Feb '08, 20" in Feb '06, and 18.5" in Feb '11, but those were a bit of a paper tiger.

Still nothing compared to the stretch of total dud Februarys from '84-'92.

1993 march was great, 2005 and 2011 had epic January's, 2003 February. We've lived well the past 20 years and we may be paying.

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

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Yeah cpick...BOS blew its load in Feb 2003 having their snowiest Feb on record with 41.6" and then have paid the price since then, lol. Climo's a b**ch sometimes. They did have 15" in Feb '08, 20" in Feb '06, and 18.5" in Feb '11, but those were a bit of a paper tiger.

 

Still nothing compared to the stretch of total dud Februarys from '84-'92.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe I got the goose egg (0.0") last FEB.  

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
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Nick what does that mean potentially for us? Similiar to what the buff disco was implying the other day

 

yeah I think so.  I mean we had one in the winter last year as you can see on the chart...but all the cold and storminess was shoved into Eurasia...that doesn't appear to be happening but it's not some magic bullet, either.

I'm just beginning to look at this stuff, so my understand is rather rudimentary...

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