NaoPos Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 this seems like a pretty legit MJO wave into phase 8-1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 this seems like a pretty legit MJO wave into phase 8-1? I dont see why not, the models have been underselling this wave nearly from its inception. The strongest correlation for NE cold in DJF is with phase 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I dont see why not, the models have been underselling this wave nearly from its inception. The strongest correlation for NE cold in DJF is with phase 8. Seriously. Since the new year they've been garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Seriously. Since the new year they've been garbage Do you mean the MJO models or the global models like the Euro and the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The global dynamical model forecasts of the MJO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Monday may feature some light precip as well. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Monday may feature some light precip as well. We'll see. yea posted it in the friday threat thread. Euro has like an inch or so of snow mainly northern del and 295 north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 yea posted it in the friday threat thread. Euro has like an inch or so of snow mainly northern del and 295 north and west Time to give that event potential its own thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Time to give that event potential its own thread lock it up ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Wow, some impressive numbers here on the official data: 20104 2013 1 15 0.41 0.29 25 5.5 0.520105 2013 1 16 0.48 1.39 20 4.5 1.520106 2013 1 17 0.74 1.89 20 4.5 2.020107 2013 1 18 0.93 1.48 25 5.5 1.720108 2013 1 19 1.16 2.56 25 5.5 2.820109 2013 1 20 1.56 2.72 25 5.5 3.120110 2013 1 21 1.82 1.62 25 5.5 2.420111 2013 1 22 2.09 3.35 25 5.5 3.9 Feb 2-4 arrival of Pac STJ to the West? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Wow, some impressive numbers here on the official data: 20104 2013 1 15 0.41 0.29 25 5.5 0.5 20105 2013 1 16 0.48 1.39 20 4.5 1.5 20106 2013 1 17 0.74 1.89 20 4.5 2.0 20107 2013 1 18 0.93 1.48 25 5.5 1.7 20108 2013 1 19 1.16 2.56 25 5.5 2.8 20109 2013 1 20 1.56 2.72 25 5.5 3.1 20110 2013 1 21 1.82 1.62 25 5.5 2.4 20111 2013 1 22 2.09 3.35 25 5.5 3.9 Feb 2-4 arrival of Pac STJ to the West? #climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 #climo Wow, some impressive numbers here on the official data: 20104 2013 1 15 0.41 0.29 25 5.5 0.5 20105 2013 1 16 0.48 1.39 20 4.5 1.5 20106 2013 1 17 0.74 1.89 20 4.5 2.0 20107 2013 1 18 0.93 1.48 25 5.5 1.7 20108 2013 1 19 1.16 2.56 25 5.5 2.8 20109 2013 1 20 1.56 2.72 25 5.5 3.1 20110 2013 1 21 1.82 1.62 25 5.5 2.4 20111 2013 1 22 2.09 3.35 25 5.5 3.9 Feb 2-4 arrival of Pac STJ to the West? someone posted in this thread that of the last like 10 years or so the feb 5-9 period has had snow on it like 8 or 9 of those 10 years. With the way things are shaping up it could work out again. If we can just get the stj alive, with this cold, it could be fun for a lot of us minus adam. It looks liek for feruary atleast half the month should have a favorable MJO phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Mt Holly THE TELECONNECTION PATTERNS ARE ALL OUTLOOKED TO BECOMEMILDER NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT THIS APPEARS TO BE A LULL ON THECOLD ROAD AS THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION IS OUTLOOKED TO BEENTERING THE COLDEST AND STRONGEST CORRELATION PHASE (FOR COLD) TOSTART FEBRUARY. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 yeah we know, cold will return after warm up but will we get a decent snow cover in feb.? that is the question that remains unknown as we head into our last full month of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 30th anniversary encore of the Megalopolitan Snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The HM storm around feb 4 is alive and well on the euro at hr 240. As of right now its a nc southern va snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z euro almost had some magic for s 200+hours out( hence, im posting in the banter thread)... has a closed ULL hitting SOCAL racing eastward, meanwhie, a shortwave coming in over top of the ridge dropping south. However, the STJ shortwave races east out ahead of it and the northern SW cant catch up with it. you get a southern slider. Its moisture loaded though. Just showing the potential here, especially with the STJ starting to make an appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 OT but the long range EURO is much different, it created a rex block and boosted the PNA, minimizes the warm up and shows a potential E.C. snowstorm for day 8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 OT but the long range EURO is much different, it created a rex block and boosted the PNA, minimizes the warm up and shows a potential E.C. snowstorm for day 8-10. Looks like its taking into account the strength of the MJO forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Looks like its taking into account the strength of the MJO forecast. I'm sure I'm being semantic, but the MJO forecast isn't in any way independent of the modeled results over North America. It's not like there is an MJO parameterization in the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm sure I'm being semantic, but the MJO forecast isn't in any way independent of the modeled results over North America. It's not like there is an MJO parameterization in the model. You do get my point though as it correlates well with the current MJO forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The Euro model now has the wave peaking just before entering Phase 1, just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 the gefs 6-14 day outlooks should make adam pretty happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 You do get my point though as it correlates well with the current MJO forecast. Yeah, I kinda figured that's what you meant - I just wanted to clear up any possible misconceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yeah, I kinda figured that's what you meant - I just wanted to clear up any possible misconceptions. Thank you, your right I didn't mean to word it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm sure I'm being semantic, but the MJO forecast isn't in any way independent of the modeled results over North America. It's not like there is an MJO parameterization in the model. Actually, I'm glad you cleared that up. I think I asked that very question a few months ago, but I worded it so poorly that I never really got a clear answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Things aligning for February? At least climate is on our side. I'm curious as to how long it takes the MJO to force the pattern? In other words, once it enters Phase 8, how long does it take for cold to enter North America? Or perhaps I'm confused as to how that works haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Gotta love those 1994 dates. Maybe we can get some epic ice......gulp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Things aligning for February? At least climate is on our side. I'm curious as to how long it takes the MJO to force the pattern? In other words, once it enters Phase 8, how long does it take for cold to enter North America? Or perhaps I'm confused as to how that works haha. Phase 8 is a cold phase, there is no lag. MJO just one piece of the puzzle though, events in the mid latitudes and or arctic can either work in concert or against the forcing. Right now I dont see anything with the latter, but its not my forte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.