NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 if thats the case wouldn't that argue for a rebirth of the southern stream? Absolutely. HM has it covered pretty good in his last few posts. It's prob Probably why were seeing the mjo advance into phase 8-2 on the roundy product and now the operational models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Absolutely. HM has it covered pretty good in his last few posts. It's prob Probably why were seeing the mjo advance into phase 8-2 on the roundy product and now the operational models. So to sum it up the stratospheric warming is causing the equatorial tropics to cool allowing the eastward progression of the MJO impulse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 So to sum it up the stratospheric warming is causing the equatorial tropics to cool allowing the eastward progression of the MJO impulse? From my untrained eye, that's my understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 From my untrained eye, that's my understanding. My head hurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 FWIW, jma has .25-.5 from SEPA to boston for tuesdays event... hr 72-96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Nothing has changed from yesterday as far as I'm concerned. This clipper will continue to trend a little bit stronger Monday, possibly enough to bring light snow or snow showers to the area. Next week is definitely a wintry threat, even down here into the Delaware Valley. I'd like to see the ECMWF give us some love on today's 12z. After the "relaxation" we should go right back to a PNA...but this time with a STJ. Mwhaha Like your thoughts a lot here. ive been knocked out by a stomache virus the past few days so just getting back into things..great to see the 12z trends today very much in line with what you layed out yesterday (south trends with next weeks system) Check this out: at the 600k level, watch the dying PV on our side of the pole produce an anticyclonic wave breaker across the West-Based NAO regions / northern Canada. http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ecpv.php?alert=1&level=600&forecast=all&lng=eng The ECMWF attempts to congeal both PVs toward the end of the run but the one on our side dies, allowing the Alaskan High to build south and eastward. These are very promising signs today to get the NAO more favorable going into Feb. 12z does it again. Preliminary GWO numbers are pretty freakin' awesome: 358 2013 1 9 -0.07 1.98 20 4.5 2.0 359 2013 1 10 0.17 1.47 20 4.5 1.5 360 2013 1 11 0.29 0.65 25 5.5 0.7 361 2013 1 12 0.36 0.70 25 5.5 0.8 362 2013 1 13 0.48 0.76 25 5.5 0.9 363 2013 1 14 0.55 0.69 25 5.5 0.9 364 2013 1 15 0.64 0.27 25 5.5 0.7 365 2013 1 16 0.64 0.02 30 6.5 0.6 366 2013 1 17 0.79 3.04 20 4.5 3.1 Strong strong +AAM tendency on prelim stuff. Saw that today. You think this correlates well to another PNA spike around a week from today, timing nicely with the late week system? never was quite sure about the timing of AAM spikes and the eventual pattern inlfuences in NA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 fwiw the euro ens still like the track north of us with redevelop south of LI. Though i would assume their is a wide spread in the mean from the south to the north since is has 850 temps in the -4 to -8 range over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 fwiw the euro ens still like the track north of us with redevelop south of LI. Though i would assume their is a wide spread in the mean from the south to the north since is has 850 temps in the -4 to -8 range over the area. Without looking at the individual members, its hard to say. Its like the previous "event" where a couple of SREF members were giving ACY around 10" of snow. Mitch found a message about Pacific dropsondes planned for the 00z run. Obviously there are a couple of players to watch out for, one being how quickly does the PV exit, but also on the Pacific side as one of the reasons the Euro went south today was because the wavelength flattened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 18z GFS was a pretty drastic change overall compared to its 12z counterpart. 168 hrs actually looks like a pretty good winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I like next Friday's event...think we see a bit more nudging south that as we approach. Might be an issue with ptype in Southern DE but locally I'm not too worried (as of now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I like next Friday's event...think we see a bit more nudging south that as we approach. Might be an issue with ptype in Southern DE but locally I'm not too worried (as of now). You might have to dust the snowfall map off. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 You might have to dust the snowfall map off. Lol I did the other day for Southern DE and I failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Fantastic run and thanks for the snipit. A perfect system on a fitting day. I may be able to reach and finally exceed my 11/6-7 total! What, is that your birthday or some anniversary or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 06 GEFS have a brief warm-up after the D7 storm. Then west coast ridge rebuilds by D12 with hints of a southern jet undercutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 06 GEFS have a brief warm-up after the D7 storm. Then west coast ridge rebuilds by D12 with hints of a southern jet undercutting. Yea pretty much all the models have a slight relaxation, could see a cutter in that time frame around day 10-11 before a relaod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looks like many of the MJO models are reacting to the stratospheric warming HM was talking about pushing it into Phase 8. Example - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yea pretty much all the models have a slight relaxation, could see a cutter in that time frame around day 10-11 before a relaod. Forget about it getting colder again, our own personal Facebook troll (its not Nick Stefano, I'm good friends with Nick and I know Nick hates long range hyping) pretty much told us we cant forecast our way out of a paper bag. . Its dark in here. (BTW, everyone please dont respond). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looks like many of the MJO models are reacting to the stratospheric warming HM was talking about pushing it into Phase 8. Example - Is it that the models are picking up on a the SSW event, or is it that they are problematic at predicting the eastward propagation of tropical convection? On the other hand, it could be a combination of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 The long range gFS says what torch? Very MJO phase 8'ish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Is it that the models are picking up on a the SSW event, or is it that they are problematic at predicting the eastward propagation of tropical convection? On the other hand, it could be a combination of the two. ^^^^^this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It's looking like the MJO is going to win over the Nina/-PDO base state. I'd expect this pulse to last a full orbit, which means wintry weather through early/mid-Feb, then we should go back to a torchy looking back half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Models have been slowly reducing the degree of warm-up after friday's storm and then reloading. Last nights D10 Euro Ensembles show a potentially cold and stormy split flow pattern developing by D10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It's looking like the MJO is going to win over the Nina/-PDO base state. I'd expect this pulse to last a full orbit, which means wintry weather through early/mid-Feb, then we should go back to a torchy looking back half of the month. You know I have to go out and buy a Captain Obvious shirt for work now because I said this to a couple of our staff on the weekend. "The second half of February will be warmer than the first half of February". BTW the sun did rise in the east today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 You know I have to go out and buy a Captain Obvious shirt for work now because I said this to a couple of our staff on the weekend. "The second half of February will be warmer than the first half of February". BTW the sun did rise in the east today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Tom or Adam...on today's 12z GFS run looked like there were 3 legit threats in the offing between Friday and 2/6/13. One of the more significant threats was around 1/31/13 with a low cutting right across the Philly metro as it intensified putting 1.00+ precip in area. However, the 850 line straddled a Portsmouth NH line to central PA suggesting a big wet cold rain event. Some previous commentary here suggested that a warm up might not be in the cards and that the PV was going to reload and act as a block. Also the Euro D8-D10 was looking a bit more promising for continued cold. Do you think there will be a significant warm up from D7-D15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think there will be a significant warmup D7-D10, as we get a-EPO/-PNA combo, where the cold dumps into the West initially. Then the whole system will progress eastward and another big cold shot comes down D11-D15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think there will be a significant warmup D7-D10, as we get a-EPO/-PNA combo, where the cold dumps into the West initially. Then the whole system will progress eastward and another big cold shot comes down D11-D15. Yeah im not sure just how warm it gets in the Northeast between the next Tuesday-Friday time frame when the cold relaxes..but id guess there is at least one significant warm day in there ahead of a cutter/next cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Yeah im not sure just how warm it gets in the Northeast between the next Tuesday-Friday time frame when the cold relaxes..but id guess there is at least one significant warm day in there ahead of a cutter/next cold shot. Yeah, I certainly don't mean +20 or anything silly like that, but a couple three days of +2-+5? Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Yeah, I certainly don't mean +20 or anything silly like that, but a couple three days of +2-+5? Sure. There is a disconnect developing between the NAEFS and what looks like should happen, its still holding onto week 2 warmth which even with a warm start to that week might be a stretch. The Canadian MJO outlook doesnt go to phase 8 and I'm assuming those members are pulling the NAEFS warmer as the GEFS certainly doesnt. The NAEFS should have had a cold week here too even dollar cost averaging Sunday's warmth (it had near normal), so maybe some of its teflon is chipping or is the next cold snap delayed a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Canadian ensemble is out to lunch imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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