Rest of SE winter: Best by far yet to come per warm Dec/Jan analogs

[GaWx]

Jan.-Mar. 14 Analogs for KATL when prior Dec.'s coldest was 29-31 at KATL
- 1882: warm Jan. but major ZR on 1/30
- 1890: warm Jan. and Feb. but Mar. was coldest of Nov-Mar!; winter's coldest 17 F on 3/2 (high of only 30); wintry mix 3/6-7; winter's 2nd coldest 18 F 3/16!
- 1901: 4.4" S on 2/23 (S wasn't even forecasted); LaGrange 10"!; 19 F 2/24; winter's coldest 17 F on 3/6!; three highs 32 or lower 2/20-3/6!
- 1909: mild Jan. and Feb. but coldest of winter 1/30-2/1 8-14 F
- 1922: 1" S/IP in Jan. (date unknown); S/IP mix 2/15; winter's coldest 20 sometime in Feb. (my guess 2/17)
- 1923: warm Jan. but major ZR (with some IP) 1/23-4; winter's coldest 13 F on 2/18; 17 F on 3/20 (3rd latest teen on record);
- 1924: winter's coldest 0 F on 1/6 ; 19 F on 2/22; 4.0" S on 3/14
- 1932: warm Jan. and Feb. but Mar. was coldest of Nov-Mar!; 0.3" S/IP 3/9 and high of only 28F; winter's coldest 15 F on 3/10; 19F on 3/13
- 1937: warm Jan. but winter's coldest 20 F on 2/26; Cold rain Atl. 2/27-8 but snow in Chattanooga 2/27
- 1957: mild Jan. but winter's coldest 16 F on 1/17
- 1987: 3.6" S/IP 1/22 (5" N burbs); winter's coldest 16 F on 1/27; 1.2" S 3/11-2; T of S 4/3 with ~2" Marietta; ~6-7" BHM; Blairsville ~12"; southern NC mtns ~18"!
- 1993: mild Jan. but 19 F on 2/19; Storm of Cent.'s 4.2" S on 3/13 with 8-18" Dunwoody, Marietta, Rome, BHM, Ash; winter's coldest 18 F 3/14
- 1995: mild Jan. but 17 F on 1/5, 0.4" S on 2/6-7; 18 F on 2/6; winter's coldest of 14 F on 2/9
- 2012: warm Jan.-Mar. but still had winter's coldest of 19 F on 2/12
 
Note the bolded dates in each year. So, the winter highlights (cold/wintry precip. there or nearby) at KATL for the 14 analogs were during these dates (major winter storms underlined):
1/5, 1/6, 1/17, 1/22, 1/23-4, 1/27, 1/30, 1/30-2/1, 2/6-7, 2/9, 2/12, 2/15, 2/17, 2/18, 2/19, 2/22, 2/23, 2/24, 2/26, 2/27, 3/2, 3/6, 3/6-7, 3/9, 3/10, 3/11-2, 3/13, 3/13, 3/14, 3/14, 3/16, 3/20, 4/3
 
 Look at how incredibly backended were these 14 winters as a whole! Only 1/5 and 1/6, just 2 of the 33 noted dates, are even in forecast sight. Those two were during El Ninos and both of those seasons had more cold in Feb. with one having had a major S in Mar. Note that all seven MAJOR winter storms were 1/22 or later (all of these dates still well outside of medium range models)! What really sticks out is how active it still is during the period 3/6-16 with a whopping ten notable events and two major snows!
Also, note that 10 of these 14 analogs had a mild to warm Jan. That didn't stop those winters from having winter wx, even in some cases in Jan. though generally late in the month.
 
 
Conclusion:
 
 Despite being a winter wx enthusiast like most posters, I'm not the least bit worried about a warm Jan. when I see stats like what is listed for the analogs. Let's face it: a mild to warm Jan. in the SE US is likely based on these analogs, especially when considering that three of the four near normal or colder Jan.'s were during El Ninos, and that the model hints including the Euro weeklies (fwiw) suggest coming warmth into the medium range. IMO, it would relieve a lot of stress if readers would go ahead and accept that Jan. of 2013 is very likely not going to be a cold month as a whole but at the same time know that wintry prospects for some points during the period late Jan. through March look quite promising.

[jburns]

Jan.-Mar. 13 Analogs for KATL when prior Dec. coldest 29-31 at KATL

- 1882: warm Jan. but major ZR on 1/30

- 1890: warm Jan. and Feb. but Mar. was coldest of Nov-Mar!; winter's coldest 17 F on 3/2 (high of only 30); wintry mix 3/6-7; winter's 2nd coldest 18 F 3/16!

- 1901: 4.4" S on 2/23 (S wasn't even forecasted); LaGrange 10"!; 19 F 2/24; winter's coldest 17 F on 3/6!; three highs 32 or lower 2/20-3/6!

- 1909: mild Jan. and Feb. but coldest of winter 1/30-2/1 8-14 F

- 1922: 1" S/IP in Jan. (date unknown); S/IP mix 2/15; winter's coldest 20 sometime in Feb. (my guess 2/17)

- 1923: warm Jan. but major ZR (with some IP) 1/23-4; winter's coldest 13 F on 2/18; 17 F on 3/20 (3rd latest teen on record);

- 1924: winter's coldest 0 F on 1/6 ; 19 F on 2/22; 4.0" S on 3/14

- 1932: warm Jan. and Feb. but 0.3" S/IP 3/9 and high of only 28F; winter's coldest 15 F on 3/10; 19F on 3/13

- 1937: warm Jan. but winter's coldest 20 F on 2/26; Cold rain Atl. 2/27-8 but snow in Chattanooga 2/27

- 1987: 3.6" S/IP 1/22 (5" N burbs); winter's coldest 16 F on 1/27; 1.2" S 3/11-2; T of S 4/3 with ~2" Marietta; ~6-7" BHM; Blairsville ~12"; southern NC mtns ~18"!

- 1993: mild Jan. but 19 F on 2/19; Storm of Cent.'s 4.2" S on 3/13 with 8-18" Dunwoody, Marietta, Rome, BHM, Ash; winter's coldest 18 F 3/14

- 1995: mild Jan. but 17 F on 1/5, 0.4" S on 2/6-7; 18 F on 2/6; winter's coldest of 14 F on 2/9

- 2012: warm Jan.-Mar. but still had 19 F on 2/12

 

Note the bolded dates in each year. So, the winter highlights (cold/wintry precip. there or nearby) at KATL for the 13 analogs were during these dates (major winter storms underlined):

1/5, 1/6, 1/22, 1/23-4, 1/27, 1/30, 1/30-2/1, 2/6-7, 2/9, 2/12, 2/15, 2/17, 2/18, 2/19, 2/22, 2/23, 2/24, 2/26, 2/27, 3/2, 3/6, 3/6-7, 3/9, 3/10, 3/11-2, 3/13, 3/13, 3/14, 3/14, 3/16, 3/20, 4/3

 

 Look at how incredibly backended were these 13 winters as a whole! Only 1/5 and 1/6, just 2 of the 32 noted dates, are even in forecast sight. Those two were during El Ninos and both of those seasons had more cold in Feb. with one having had a major S in Mar. Note that all seven MAJOR winter storms were 1/22 or later (all of these dates still well outside of medium range models)! What really sticks out is how active it still is during the period 3/6-16 with a whopping ten notable events and two major snows!

Also, note that 9 of these 13 analogs had a mild to warm Jan. That didn't stop those winters from having winter wx, even in some cases in Jan. though generally late in the month.

 

 

Conclusion:

 

 Despite being a winter wx enthusiast like most posters, I'm not the least bit worried about a warm Jan. when I see stats like what is listed for the analogs. Let's face it: a mild to warm Jan. in the SE US is likely based on these analogs, especially when considering that three of the four near normal or colder Jan.'s were during El Ninos, and that the model hints including the Euro weeklies (fwiw) suggest coming warmth into the medium range. IMO, it would relieve a lot of stress if readers would go ahead and accept that Jan. of 2013 is very likely not going to be a cold month as a whole but at the same time know that wintry prospects for some points during the period late Jan. through March look quite promising.

 

 

You are an amazing treasure trove of stats.  I'm not sure anything causal is in there but it's damn interesting.  How about checking on how many good events followed posts like this made in early January?  

[GaWx]

You are an amazing treasure trove of stats.  I'm not sure anything causal is in there but it's damn interesting.  How about checking on how many good events followed posts like this made in early January?  

 

 

 

 Thanks! Haha, you're a funny guy! Seriously, for those who aren't too familiar with my posting tendencies, keep in mind that I'm not afraid to put pessimistic posts out there as I've done that in the past. Examples: recent posts about model cold biases. So, I don't consider myself an eternal optimist by any means. I place a lot of importance on being deemed to be pretty objective rather than being either a cheerleader or a downer. Moreover, even here I'm saying I think Jan. will be mild and Feb. probably not cold as a whole. Also, I posted all of the relevant data so the readers could see for themselves about what I'm basing my feelings and also to allow them to make their own judgements. 

[Psalm 148:8]

Thanks for the reminders.....you are awesome at stats....hope you can add another stat to your treasure trove after this winter......One thing I did notice......what about 1938-1986??  that's quite a long stretch for not one year to fit in your analog?

[jburns]

.....what about 1938-1986??  

 

 

First they share three numbers...1, 9 and 8

 

The numbers not shared are 3 and 6.

 

Adding the shared numbers together you get 18.

 

The unshared numbers total 9.

 

9 is exactly 1/2 of 18.

 

Coincidence?  I think not.

 

[dsaur]

What struck me is the lack of brutal lows.  We're talking mid to upper teens for the most part.  I've always contended you don't need what I consider "cold" air.  Under 12 or 13 is "cold" air.  Upper teens is "nice" winter air, and not hard to get, even in a mild winter.  Most great storms I've seen  had a waa that warmed things up when the precip fell, and shed it's heat, and then the next night was when the hammer fell.  I always wait until the second night to hit the streets because that's when whats left freezes.  So it takes a good storm to stick around while all the crazies go out driving in the snow (yeah, me too ) then the cold comes in.  A normal, or somewhat above normal winter can, and often does deliver the goods.  I bet Feb 01 was good here.  I wish I knew if LaGrange was on the southern, or northern edge.

  As usual your research brings some sanity.  I'm glad we have you in Ga.  Those danged Carolina folks get all the snow, but we got stats showing we can get our own,  and it doesn't have to be bone breaking cold, down here,  lol.  Thanks for keeping a steady head.  Tony

[tarheelwx]

You're supposed to multiply the unshared numbers to balance the equation. Multiply the unshared numbers and you get ........ 18!!!! Since this balances the equation, you take the 2 from 1/2 and the 18 to get 2/18 as a major winter storm date. Also since the multiplied unshared numbers yield a product of 18, you can also bank on 3/6 as a major winter storm date.

Tw

[jburns]

What struck me is the lack of brutal lows.  We're talking mid to upper teens for the most part.  I've always contended you don't need what I consider "cold" air.  Under 12 or 13 is "cold" air.  Upper teens is "nice" winter air, and not hard to get, even in a mild winter.  Most great storms I've seen  had a waa that warmed things up when the precip fell, and shed it's heat, and then the next night was when the hammer fell.  I always wait until the second night to hit the streets because that's when whats left freezes.  So it takes a good storm to stick around while all the crazies go out driving in the snow (yeah, me too ) then the cold comes in.  A normal, or somewhat above normal winter can, and often does deliver the goods.  I bet Feb 01 was good here.  I wish I knew if LaGrange was on the southern, or northern edge.

  As usual your research brings some sanity.  I'm glad we have you in Ga.  Those danged Carolina folks get all the snow, but we got stats showing we can get our own,  and it doesn't have to be bone breaking cold, down here,  lol.  Thanks for keeping a steady head.  Tony

 

 

I always go out driving in any big snow once all the people who can't drive have gotten home.  My favorite time is after midnight. Totally empty roads on which to slide and spin around.  My wife went with me.........once.  lol

[GaWx]

Thanks for the reminders.....you are awesome at stats....hope you can add another stat to your treasure trove after this winter......One thing I did notice......what about 1938-1986??  that's quite a long stretch for not one year to fit in your analog?

Psalm,

Thanks! I just rechecked all of the Decembers going back to 1879 having the coldest being 29-31 and especially during that long stretch of 1938-86. It turns out that I accidentally left off one, Dec. 1956. So, I just added Jan.-Mar 1957 to make my list complete (14 analogs instead of 13).

So, how was Jan.-Mar of 1957? With it not being El Nino, Jan. and Feb. fit the common non-Nino pattern of being mild to warm. March was near normal (coldest relative to normal of Dec.-Mar.) though it wasn't exciting since there was only a trace of S (on 3/8). Actually, there was no measurable wintry precip. for KATL at all that winter. Despite the mild Jan., the winter's coldest was on 1/17 with a low of 16. This is still just beyond the medium range forecasting models' range though not as late as the other years' highlights for the most part.

[WilkesboroDude]

I agree the long term does look promising. Most if not all agree I think?

[GaWx]

 Taking the warm Dec. analogs a step further

 

  I now want to analyze the non-El Nino warm Dec. analogs with the warmest respective 1/1-20  follow-up periods. I’m doing this because I now feel pretty confident that KATL will not get down to 25 F or colder by 1/20/13. The years that stayed above 25 F for the period 1/1-20 were 1890, 1909, 1923, 1932, 1937, and 1993.

 

-1890: warm Jan. and  Feb.; Mar. was below normal and coldest of Nov-Mar!; winter's coldest 17 F on 3/2 (high of only 30); wintry mix 3/6-7; winter's 2nd coldest 18 F 3/16!

 

-1909: mild Jan. and Feb. but coldest of winter 1/30-2/1 8-14 F; Mar near normal temp.’s

 

-1923: warm Jan. but below normal  Feb.. and near normal March; major ZR (with some IP) 1/23-4; winter's coldest 13 F on 2/18; 17 F on 3/20 (3rd latest teen on record);

 

-1932: warm Jan. and Feb.; below normal Mar. and Mar. coldest of Nov-Mar!.; 0.3" S/IP 3/9 and high of only 28F; winter's coldest 15 F on 3/10; 19F on 3/13

 

-1937: warm Jan., near normal Feb., and below normal March; March colder than Jan.; winter's coldest 20 F on 2/26; Cold rain Atl. 2/27-8 but snow in Chattanooga 2/27

 

-1993: mild Jan but near normal Feb. and March.; 19 F on 2/19; Storm of Cent.'s 4.2" S on 3/13 with 8-18" Dunwoody, Marietta, Rome, BHM, Ash; winter's coldest 18 F 3/14

 

 What do these six analogs tell me about the upcoming weather?

 

-Jan.: warm to mild

-Feb.: up for grabs temp.'s

-Mar.: near or colder than normal very likely; pretty good chance to be colder than Jan. if Jan. ends up warmer than 50 (~ 7 above normal) even though Mar. normal is ~53 F. The way things look now, Jan. being warmer than 50 is a realistic possibility.

-Decent shot (~50%?) that early to mid March will have coldest temp. of winter!

-Decent shot (~50%?) that best shot at significant snow late Feb. to mid-Mar

-Some chance for major ZR late Jan. to early Feb.

 

 Bottom line: The lack of cold through 1/20 means an increased and pretty good chance that March will be the best winter month.

[GaWx]

 The big question I have is whether or not KATL will average 50+ for Jan. 2013 as a whole. A 50+ for Jan. would make it a top ten warm Jan. going back to 1879. The last one was the 53.2 of 1974. Based on actual 1/1-11 data as well as current forecasts out through 1/25, KATL looks to be near 49F through 1/25. So, obviously, a 50+ is in play as a realistic possibility, especially if 1/26-31 end up warm. IF that were to occur, it would be only the fourth time since 1878-9 for both Dec. and Jan. to be 50+. The only other times were 1931-2, 1889-90, and 1879-80. In all three cases, Feb. also exceeded 50 F. However, in two of the three cases, March was below 50 F, which is solidly below normal, and was the coldest month of the entire cold season. Three is a very small sample, but my overall 14 warm Dec. analog set does suggest a good chance for some March winter excitement (especially if Jan. is very warm), even if March doesn't end up being the coldest month of the season as a whole.

 

 If March were to end up averaging below 50 F, it would be the coldest KATL March since all of the way back to 1971. The last time March was the coldest month of the season at KATL was way back in 1960. The only other times were 1932 and 1890, two of the warm Dec. analog years.

[GaWx]

 The big question I have is whether or not KATL will average 50+ for Jan. 2013 as a whole. A 50+ for Jan. would make it a top ten warm Jan. going back to 1879. The last one was the 53.2 of 1974. Based on actual 1/1-11 data as well as current forecasts out through 1/25, KATL looks to be near 49F through 1/25. So, obviously, a 50+ is in play as a realistic possibility, especially if 1/26-31 end up warm. IF that were to occur, it would be only the fourth time since 1878-9 for both Dec. and Jan. to be 50+. The only other times were 1931-2, 1889-90, and 1879-80. In all three cases, Feb. also exceeded 50 F. However, in two of the three cases, March was below 50 F, which is solidly below normal, and was the coldest month of the entire cold season. Three is a very small sample, but my overall 14 warm Dec. analog set does suggest a good chance for some March winter excitement (especially if Jan. is very warm), even if March doesn't end up being the coldest month of the season as a whole.

 

 If March were to end up averaging below 50 F, it would be the coldest KATL March since all of the way back to 1971. The last time March was the coldest month of the season at KATL was way back in 1960. The only other times were 1932 and 1890, two of the warm Dec. analog years.

 

 Well, based on the underlined, 1/1-25 was projected to be near 49F at KATL. Now, 1/1-25 is projected to be near 50F. This certainly means a better chance for Jan. as a whole to end up near 50 F vs. the normal of ~43.3 F. It now looks quite likely that Jan. will end at least at 49 F. Even a 49 F for Jan. would be warm enough to make Dec./Jan. avg. 50 F. A 50 F would actually be barely warmer than last winter's Dec./Jan, which was at 49.8 F.

 

 The coldest to date (through 1/21) at KATL this heating season is still only down to 30 F. That is a new record as the old record longest in the heating season to not get below 30 F had been January 9 (in 1932).

 

  It may seem counterintuitive, but all of this bodes pretty well for a decent shot at some March excitement this year. We'll see.

[GaWx]

 Taking the warm Dec. analogs a step further

 

  I now want to analyze the non-El Nino warm Dec. analogs with the warmest respective 1/1-20  follow-up periods. I’m doing this because I now feel pretty confident that KATL will not get down to 25 F or colder by 1/20/13. The years that stayed above 25 F for the period 1/1-20 were 1890, 1909, 1923, 1932, 1937, and 1993.

 

-1890: warm Jan. and  Feb.; Mar. was below normal and coldest of Nov-Mar!; winter's coldest 17 F on 3/2 (high of only 30); wintry mix 3/6-7; winter's 2nd coldest 18 F 3/16!

 

-1909: mild Jan. and Feb. but coldest of winter 1/30-2/1 8-14 F; Mar near normal temp.’s

 

-1923: warm Jan. but below normal  Feb.. and near normal March; major ZR (with some IP) 1/23-4; winter's coldest 13 F on 2/18; 17 F on 3/20 (3rd latest teen on record);

 

-1932: warm Jan. and Feb.; below normal Mar. and Mar. coldest of Jan.-Mar.; 0.3" S/IP 3/9 and high of only 28F; winter's coldest 15 F on 3/10; 19F on 3/13

 

-1937: warm Jan., near normal Feb., and below normal March; March colder than Jan.; winter's coldest 20 F on 2/26; Cold rain Atl. 2/27-8 but snow in Chattanooga 2/27

 

-1993: mild Jan but near normal Feb. and March.; 19 F on 2/19; Storm of Cent.'s 4.2" S on 3/13 with 8-18" Dunwoody, Marietta, Rome, BHM, Ash; winter's coldest 18 F 3/14

 

 What do these six analogs tell me about the upcoming weather?

 

-Jan.: warm to mild

-Feb.: up for grabs temp.'s

-Mar.: near or colder than normal very likely; pretty good chance to be colder than Jan. if Jan. ends up warmer than 50 (~ 7 above normal) even though Mar. normal is ~53 F. The way things look now, Jan. being warmer than 50 is a realistic possibility.

-Decent shot (~50%?) that early to mid March will have coldest temp. of winter!

-Decent shot (~50%?) that best shot at significant snow late Feb. to mid-Mar

-Some chance for major ZR late Jan. to early Feb.

 

 Bottom line: The lack of cold through 1/20 means an increased and pretty good chance that March will be the best winter month.

 

 **KATL finally got down below 30 F..to 29F. However, that leaves only 1992-3 as the only other winter since 1878-79 not having gotten colder than 29 F by 1/25.**

 

 1. Jan. will verify as a warm month for KATL. It now looks to verify close to 50F! If it is 49.9+, it will be the warmest since 1974 and the 8th warmest since 1879! It would also make Dec./Jan. the warmest since at least 1949-50 and at least the fifth warmest on record. The only ones at least as warm would be: 1949-50 (2012-13 still has a shot at being barely warmer than this), 1931-2, 1889-90, and 1879-80. What happened in those four winters after Jan. at KATL?

 

-1879-80: warm Feb. and mild Mar. but this isn't as good of an analog since Dec. got as cold as 17F despite the month being warm overall

-1889-90: warm Feb. but Mar. was solidly below normal and coldest of Nov-Mar!; winter's coldest 17 F on 3/2 (high of only 30); wintry mix 3/6-7; winter's 2nd coldest 18 F 3/16!

-1931-2:  warm Feb. but Mar. was solidly below normal and coldest of Nov-Mar!; 0.3" S/IP 3/9 and high of only 28F; winter's coldest 15 F on 3/10; 19F on 3/13

-1949-50: warm Feb. but Mar. was solidly below normal and coldest of Jan.-Mar.; only trace of S/IP of entire winter on 3/30; freezes 3/31, 4/7, 4/14, and 4/15 (last two records); tie for coldest high of winter on 3/4 of 38 with cold rain; not as good an analog since Dec. not warm and got down to 25 F

 

 

 So, what do these four analogs suggest going forward?

 

- Warm Feb.; I'm not thinking this is set in stone but these analogs sure make it seem likely it will be warm

- Mar. colder than normal and quite possibly (say ~50%) coldest month of winter

- good shot at a SE US wintry precip. event, possibly sig., early to mid Mar

- good shot at one or two very cold airmasses early to mid Mar., possibly coldest of season

 

 

2. How is Jan. verifying vs. what I said earlier based on analogs?

 

- warm, which matches what warm Dec. analogs had suggested was most likely

- I had said, "Some chance for major ZR late Jan. to early Feb" Well, KATL didn't get any ZR and the SE didn't get a major ZR, but there was some ZR and the first ZR of note in a good while for many in NC, upstate SC, and NE GA.

[GaWx]

 KATL got down to 27 F on 2/2, the coldest of the winter to date. Whereas i'm not trying to minimize this cold, 27 F is still relatively mild for the coldest as of 2/4. Things appear to remain favorable for a mild most of  Feb. for much of the SE US That means that the analogs are continuing to do well, which gives me added encouragement since these same analogs favor a chilly Mar. for much of the SE US. These same analogs suggest that March quite possibly will turn out to be the coldest month of the winter for many. At KATL, this would give KATL its coldest March since 1971 and the first time March is the coldest month of the winter since 1960.  The only other winters with March being the coldest were 1931-2 and 1889-90. Several decent wintry precip. events at some points between late Feb. and mid-March would also be suggested and would quite possibly include something major.

[jburns]

If I ever get a terminal disease, I want you to counsel me.

[franklin NCwx]

Don't look now but the CFSv2 is cold for the month of March!

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Don't look now but the CFSv2 is cold for the month of March!

Cold is relative of course. A cold March could still end up being warmer than January and February. A high of around 50 in the middle of March in Georgia would be brutally cold relative to our normal high of 65.

[franklin NCwx]

Cold is relative of course. A cold March could still end up being warmer than January and February. A high of around 50 in the middle of March in Georgia would be brutally cold relative to our normal high of 65.

I should have typed my post better. The cfsv2 has some much below normal temps for the southeast for March. Of course it has been horrible so.......

[GaWx]

Cold is relative of course. A cold March could still end up being warmer than January and February. A high of around 50 in the middle of March in Georgia would be brutally cold relative to our normal high of 65.

 

Snowstorm,

 Of course, normals are a good bit higher at KATL by March. March's normal is ~10 warmer than Jan. and ~7 warmer than Feb. However, one of the points of this thread is to not assume we can't still have our best wintry stretch in March. If Feb. comes in, say, near 49-50 at KATL  as appears is quite possible right now, a cold enough March (normal is near 53) could certainly end up making March the coldest month of this winter there. Though it has been since 1971 when KATL last had a sub-50 March, analogs suggest we have a good bit better chance at a sub-50 March than normal. Typically, when KATL has had a sub-50 March, there has been a very nice 1-2 week plus cold dominated period that would be colder than any such 1-2 week period so far this winter. I mean a 1-2 week period with many of highs only in 30's to 40's/one or more teen lows and with even a decent shot at a subfreezing high. Actually, 1890 and 1932, two of the best fitting analogs to this point, both had a sub-32 high in the first half of March! That possibility of a good stretch would be mainly during 3/1-20. I'm trying to tell you not to minimize the potential for early to mid March based on history. Believe me that the analogs are saying there could easily still be a solid 1-2+ week wintry period that would please many here, especially in relation to what we've had so far this winter.

 

 Edit: KATL has had only 9 highs of 49 or lower this winter to date with the coldest at 43. If the best analogs have their way: March of 2013 could easily have 9+ highs of 49 or lower over just a two week period and which would likely include some highs in the 30's as well as a shot at a sub-32 high and a good shot at at least one teen low.

[GaStorm]

Larry, do you know what kind of winter Atlanta had in 1983? I believe that year had a pretty decent winter storm in March as well.

 

I found an interesting article on the winter of 1960. That year was very good to the Southeast late in the winter as well!

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/Review_Feb-Mar_1960.pdf

 

March 1960 stats from the link above:

Georgia
“March 1960 was the coldest month of the winter in Georgia and the coldest March since statewide records were begun more than 70 years ago.”
“The ice and snow storms that hit north Georgia during the first half of March were of much greater importance, economically, than the cold weather.”
“Clayton measured 22 inches during the month and the observer at Hartwell reported snow on his housetop from the 2nd to the 29th of the month.”

[GaWx]

Larry, do you know what kind of winter Atlanta had in 1983? I believe that year had a pretty decent winter storm in March as well.

 

I found an interesting article on the winter of 1960. That year was very good to the Southeast late in the winter as well!

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/Review_Feb-Mar_1960.pdf

 

March 1960 stats from the link above:

Georgia

“March 1960 was the coldest month of the winter in Georgia and the coldest March since statewide records were begun more than 70 years ago.”

“The ice and snow storms that hit north Georgia during the first half of March were of much greater importance, economically, than the cold weather.”

“Clayton measured 22 inches during the month and the observer at Hartwell reported snow on his housetop from the 2nd to the 29th of the month.”

 

GAStorm,

 1983 had a fabulous snowstorm on 3/24. Nearly 8" at KATL! I don't like to use that winter as a good analog because it was El Nino, which, itself, tends to increase the chances for good late winter action. Regardless, it isn't a good analog, anyway, since Jan. was solidly below normal and Feb. was a little below normal. March of 1983 ended up at 51.3 F, which was a little below normal.

 Whereas 1960 wasn't El Nino and was actually neutral negative ENSO like the current time, even it isn't really an analog because none of Dec.-Feb. was warm. 3/1960 was incredible as you noted. Even with Feb. 1960 coming in colder than normal, 3/1960 was 2 F colder than 2/1960 and was even more than a degree below the normal for Jan!!! That was the last time that March came in as the coldest month of the winter. The prior two times, 1931-2 and 1889-90, were two of the best analog winters.

 Regardless, 1983 and 1960 at least show what can happen in the sometimes wild month of March even if they aren't analogs.

[GaStorm]

GAStorm,

 1983 had a fabulous snowstorm on 3/24. Nearly 8" at KATL! I don't like to use that winter as a good analog because it was El Nino, which, itself, tends to increase the chances for good late winter action. Regardless, it isn't a good analog, anyway, since Jan. was solidly below normal and Feb. was a little below normal. March of 1983 ended up at 51.3 F, which was a little below normal.

 Whereas 1960 wasn't El Nino and was actually neutral negative ENSO like the current time, even it isn't really an analog because none of Dec.-Feb. was warm. 3/1960 was incredible as you noted. Even with Feb. 1960 coming in colder than normal, 3/1960 was 2 F colder than 2/1960 and was even more than a degree below the normal for Jan!!!

 Regardless, 1983 and 1960 at least show what can happen in the sometimes wild month of March even if they aren't analogs.

Wow. Wish one of those years was an analog! Thanks for all the good info!

[GaWx]

Wow. Wish one of those years was an analog! Thanks for all the good info!

 

 You're welcome. The incredible thing about 3/1960 at KATL is that it was ~11 below normal. Since 1879, only the Jan.'s of 1940 and 1977 were colder in relation to normal (~13-14 below normal) and these were both weak El Nino months (weak El Nino most favors cold). 3/1960 was neutral negative ENSOwise. The only other comparably cold month was Feb. of 1895, which was also ~11 below normal (weak Nina winter). The coldest Dec., 12/1963, was ~10 below normal and that was during a borderline weak/moderate Nino. No single April-Nov. month was even close to 10 below normal.

 

 So, when one considers that the largest variance is in mid-winter, March of 1960's 11 below normal is quite historic!

[FoothillsNC]

Snowstorm,

 Of course, normals are a good bit higher at KATL by March. March's normal is ~10 warmer than Jan. and ~7 warmer than Feb. However, one of the points of this thread is to not assume we can't still have our best wintry stretch in March. If Feb. comes in, say, near 49-50 at KATL  as appears is quite possible right now, a cold enough March (normal is near 53) could certainly end up making March the coldest month of this winter there. Though it has been since 1971 when KATL last had a sub-50 March, analogs suggest we have a good bit better chance at a sub-50 March than normal. Typically, when KATL has had a sub-50 March, there has been a very nice 1-2 week plus cold dominated period that would be colder than any such 1-2 week period so far this winter. I mean a 1-2 week period with many of highs only in 30's to 40's/one or more teen lows and with even a decent shot at a subfreezing high. Actually, 1890 and 1932, two of the best fitting analogs to this point, both had a sub-32 high in the first half of March! That possibility of a good stretch would be mainly during 3/1-20. I'm trying to tell you not to minimize the potential for early to mid March based on history. Believe me that the analogs are saying there could easily still be a solid 1-2+ week wintry period that would please many here, especially in relation to what we've had so far this winter.

 

 Edit: KATL has had only 9 highs of 49 or lower this winter to date with the coldest at 43. If the best analogs have their way: March of 2013 could easily have 9+ highs of 49 or lower over just a two week period and which would likely include some highs in the 30's as well as a shot at a sub-32 high and a good shot at at least one teen low.

the Winter of 1959/60 began warm and ended extremely cold in all the Southeast. January featured a blazing period with 75° here, which beats even the warmth preceding last week before the thunderstorms/GA tornadoes.  Then double blocking in 2 perfectly placed spots ended up giving the upper Southeast it's best Winter period in a lifetime, and hasn't been matched yet (except maybe the high mtns of NC and VA with Jan 1996/ Winter 87 being close).

For the lower elevations, piedmont and interior Southeast March was much, much colder than Jan and Feb on average with the prevailing closed trough centered right over the Southern Apps from mid Feb to mid March.  I'm not sure how much Atlanta proper got, I've got a pic somewhere with the railway snowcovered, but just north of the city had 10" to 20" of snow and the GA mountains 25" + inches in just that month period of mid Feb to mid March.  If I recall Nashville  had one or 2 of it's biggest snows on record during this timeframe as well, then bulk of the interior Southeast was treated with weekly Winter weather events, and the closer you got to the mountains and foothills (both sides of the Apps) the deeper and colder it got. Many people actually died in the mountains. There was atleast a  couple NESIS snowstorms in TN, NC, VA and GA .  By official measurements, the NWS has me at 27" that Winter, but some other accounts from NCDC has me closer to 30" to 35". Doesnt' matter , as it blows away any other season by a long shot here, and for the entire Southeast it was pretty good, maybe tops in all years for quite a few.  The cold was continuous from the mid Feb to mid March period everywhere with such low heights forced southward right toward us....I guess it will be a while before we get sustained cold like that again, but actually the Winter 10/11 got close, in Dec/Jan period thanks to extreme Greenland blocking, but to have it in March is incredible. And March ended up colder on average in actual temps than January of that year, which is pretty bizzarre (unless January was a roastfest like this one and last year was). In my opinion, I think everyone would love to see that pattern repeat again at some point, but it was so rare who knows if we'll ever see it again.

( I dont' think this map includes the February storm that started the pattern --a record snow in its own right in some areas)

 

March 1960 snowfall totals:

 

Elvis in Memphis snow, March 7 1960:

 

Record January heat in NC January 1960:

 

Interestingly, the Weather Bureau (as it was called back then) saw the pattern coming in mid February. Also, the last time we saw a really cold pattern coming to the Southeast was Dec 10/ Jan 11, thanks to that extreme Greenland Block.

[MarvelMountain]

the Winter of 1959/60 began warm and ended extremely cold in all the Southeast. January featured a blazing period with 75° here, which beats even the warmth preceding last week before the thunderstorms/GA tornadoes.  Then double blocking in 2 perfectly placed spots ended up giving the upper Southeast it's best Winter period in a lifetime, and hasn't been matched yet (except maybe the high mtns of NC and VA with Jan 1996/ Winter 87 being close).

For the lower elevations, piedmont and interior Southeast March was much, much colder than Jan and Feb on average with the prevailing closed trough centered right over the Southern Apps from mid Feb to mid March.  I'm not sure how much Atlanta proper got, I've got a pic somewhere with the railway snowcovered, but just north of the city had 10" to 20" of snow and the GA mountains 25" + inches in just that month period of mid Feb to mid March.  If I recall Nashville  had one or 2 of it's biggest snows on record during this timeframe as well, then bulk of the interior Southeast was treated with weekly Winter weather events, and the closer you got to the mountains and foothills (both sides of the Apps) the deeper and colder it got. Many people actually died in the mountains. There was atleast a  couple NESIS snowstorms in TN, NC, VA and GA .  By official measurements, the NWS has me at 27" that Winter, but some other accounts from NCDC has me closer to 30" to 35". Doesnt' matter , as it blows away any other season by a long shot here, and for the entire Southeast it was pretty good, maybe tops in all years for quite a few.  The cold was continuous from the mid Feb to mid March period everywhere with such low heights forced southward right toward us....I guess it will be a while before we get sustained cold like that again, but actually the Winter 10/11 got close, in Dec/Jan period thanks to extreme Greenland blocking, but to have it in March is incredible. And March ended up colder on average in actual temps than January of that year, which is pretty bizzarre (unless January was a roastfest like this one and last year was). In my opinion, I think everyone would love to see that pattern repeat again at some point, but it was so rare who knows if we'll ever see it again.

( I dont' think this map includes the February storm that started the pattern --a record snow in its own right in some areas)

 

March 1960 snowfall totals:

march1960snow.png

 

Elvis in Memphis snow, March 7 1960:

Mar07_1960_ElvisInMemphisSnow.jpg

 

Record January heat in NC January 1960:

ShelbyDailyStarJan14_1960_recordhigh.png

 

Interestingly, the Weather Bureau (as it was called back then) saw the pattern coming in mid February. Also, the last time we saw a really cold pattern coming to the Southeast was Dec 10/ Jan 11, thanks to that extreme Greenland Block.

ShelbyDailyStarThurFeb18_1960_30dayoutlook.png

Thanks so much Robert for your thorough research into the events of Feb./Mar. 1960.  I was living in Miami, but I remember my relatives in Charlotte making many long-distance calls about all the snow they were getting.  

[GaWx]

 Regarding the threat for strong cold for the SE US for ~2/17 (based on some GFS and Euro runs showing 850's at KATL down to -10 to -16 C), do the original 14 analogs from here give me a clue about the chances for it to actually occur this time despite a good number of false alarms this winter on the GFS (some on the Euro) and despite some waffling still occuring from run to run about the strength of the cold? Let's see:

 

 Of the 14 warm KATL Dec. analogs, an impressive nearly half (6) had a low at KATL that was 20 F or lower within one week of 2/17, the date for which the cold GFS/Euro runs have been centering the upcoming projected cold:

 

- 1901: 19 F on 2/24

- 1922: 20 F on 2/17

- 1923: 13 F on 2/18

- 1924: 19 F on 2/22

- 1993: 19 F on 2/19

- 2012: 19 F on 2/12

 

 So, whereas I'm not yet confident that KATL will get down to 20 F or lower (still a week away and models have had false cold shots), it is a very believable possibility based on these analogs. If it occurs, I'm currently guessing that KATL would get down to ~17-20 F for the coldest around 2/17.

 

 Should it get this cold at KATL around 2/17, does that mean I'd then be giving up on the chance for teens in March? Absolutely not. Let's look at just these six winters going into March:

 

- 1901 went on to have an even colder low of 17 F on 3/6

- 1923 went on to have a 17 F on 3/20

- 1993 went on to have an even colder low of 18 F on 3/14

 

So, an impressive half of these six winters went on to have upper teens in March.

[FoothillsNC]

 Regarding the threat for strong cold for the SE US for ~2/17 (based on some GFS and Euro runs showing 850's at KATL down to -10 to -16 C), do the original 14 analogs from here give me a clue about the chances for it to actually occur this time despite a good number of false alarms this winter on the GFS (some on the Euro) and despite some waffling still occuring from run to run about the strength of the cold? Let's see:

 

 Of the 14 warm KATL Dec. analogs, an impressive nearly half (6) had a low at KATL that was 20 F or lower within one week of 2/17, the date for which the cold GFS/Euro runs have been centering the upcoming projected cold:

 

- 1901: 19 F on 2/24

- 1922: 20 F on 2/17

- 1923: 13 F on 2/18

- 1924: 19 F on 2/22

- 1993: 19 F on 2/19

- 2012: 19 F on 2/12

 

 So, whereas I'm not yet confident that KATL will get down to 20 F or lower (still a week away and models have had false cold shots), it is a very believable possibility based on these analogs. If it occurs, I'm currently guessing that KATL would get down to ~17-20 F for the coldest around 2/17.

 

 Should it get this cold at KATL around 2/17, does that mean I'm giving up on teens in March? Absolutely not. Let's look at just these six winters going into March:

 

- 1901 went on to have an even colder low of 17 F on 3/6

- 1923 went on to have a 17 F on 3/20

- 1993 went on to have an even colder low of 18 F on 3/14

 

So, an impressive half of these six winters went on to have upper teens in March.

 

I wouldn't be surprised (in fact now I'd be shocked ) if some areas really far south of Atlanta probably don't have their actual coldest numbers come in either this upcoming come spell next weekend or even in March this year.  This has been a really, really warm Winter again. You can probably tell by the tulips, daffodils, lady bugs and fire ant swarms everywhere in the Southeast, esp. in GA, NC, SC regions.

I've been thinking of this a couple of weeks now strongly, how everytime I'm outside and have to swat at yellow jackets  (!) and all the ladybugs inside this year (wasn't last year though)..what in the world is really going on here?  And I'm guilty myself of thinking that cold is coming within ten days several times, but then again I said mostly for TN/NC north , basically north of I-40, as every single cold shot has gotten closer we saw that it would really be nothing in most of the South.

I just looked at the official numbers from NOAA and the maps at NCDC so far this Winter.....not shocking. It just confirms what most of us already know, and that we are having another wildly warm Winter, but I guess we do have a couple 1 or 2 day cold shots here and there esp. in the upper Southeast. But its interesting how we forget how things used to be in "normal" winters.  I am astutely observant of things like nature, having to work outside all the time and noticing things, even if they go unreported. Like the ladybugs, the yellow jackets the fireant mounds growing like crazy and yet this Winter actually "seems" on par with the last one. I have seen one winter-like day, a couple weeks ago on Friday when there wasa  little sleet and freezing rain, and a high of 27.  That has been the island in really a sea of warmth for the last 2 years plus now.  No real flakes have fallen here since over 2 years, which is a record itself..not really counting a few minutes of slush that occurred in the upper low.

Looking back at late December's various models the JMA, Korean, Beijing, CFS and some others were wrong in showing the cold coming . I have the CFS maps saved, but am too embarrassed to show them.  Even 1 week out, they were mostly wrong and in a huge way for the Southeast (really the whole country, but to be honest the northern Plains and Northeast has had some cold).  For the Southern Plains to Southeast, they all were wrong.  The indices this Winter have been very weird, and the duels always end up with a fleeting cold here, only to be replaced with warmth and tornado watches.  This makes 3 straight months of tornado watches in the South, and I don't recall ever seeing that in the Winter.  What little bit of snow has been was with the upper low that favored northern Ms, Al, TN, southern VA and northwest NC, east KY.  This upcoming system once again looks the same so in this one stream pattern all Winter if you live in GA SC most of NC youre out of the chances.  The storm track continues to be mostly northwest through the TN valley , and occasionally the Upper Midwest, and eastern Canada, which is having a wild year with all the cold and snow focussing there like it did last Winter in Alaska.    When we lost the weak nino back in late October, I thought it would be a death knell for most. So, we have to rely on perfect timing of a feature to dig or an upper low...and these type storms will still probably aim for eastern TN, KY, sw VA regions or nearby, but now we're entering a very active pattern so things could change extremely quickly. Atleast we're not stuck in permanent southeast ridge mode.

So I'm in wait and see mode if the AO study will pan out for more folks. One things for sure, we won't have sustained cold, so beware of any model that shows that unless there is a southern Greenland Block..something we had a few times last Spring and Summer and early Fall (but can't buy one this Winter).  All the blocking is too far away to do us any good, so we have to rely strictly on western ridging, which can work for a few areas sometimes, but still wont' bring sustained cold. We always see a warm up and thunderstorms after the cold spell.

After last years really warm Winter, I thought  I'd never see another quite like it. But this one was slightly different but still its been about the same on the bottom line....really, REALLY warm in the South...straight from Texas to the Carolinas. I wont' get into the global warming thing because this is unique only to the US..I've seen the temps composite last 3 years for China, Europe and Eurasia and they have been Cold, and mostly Canada too....only we have been super warm....going on 25 months now.

Here's some maps (the weekly composite temp anomalies going back to start of meteorological Winter)

 

End Dec 8:

 

End Dec 15:

 

End Dec 22:

 

End Dec 29:

 

End Jan 5:

 

End Jan 12:

 

End Jan 19:

 

End Jan 26:

 

End Feb 2:

 

Not a single one of these Weeklies of actual temperatures had a cold week in the Southeast.  We are most definitely still feeling the vestiges of the super warm 2012....and yet I see some forecasters north of the Mason-Dixon portraying a cold pattern or a rumor of cold patterns. If you use actual statistics and view things scientifically and empirically, then there is no agenda or conspiracy. It's been amazingly warm for a while now, and that fact can't be disputed around here.   If you bet the streak, you'd be right in using persistence all this Winter.  The last place to get cold seems to be Texas, Georgia, Alabama and the Carolinas, as the maps bear out. Keep in mind these anomalies are for compared against the "new " normals, which in fact, are much warmer than the previous normals, because the period of 1980 to 2010 was warmer than the period 1970 to 2000....so we are truly living in historically never before seen warmth for a 2 year stretch now. I wonder how many of the younger crowd remembers how much colder it "used " to be.

 

All that negative warm stuff being said, I still say this Winter has some decent potential and is loaded with potential here at the back end...even here in the Southeast. We could end up with  a one hit wonder that blows records. I won't be surprised to see a deep south or southeast coastal cutoff, with plenty of cold on its west side, like March 1980 or a super storm like March 93. I'm not forecasting that, but the volatile pattern could produce that, and we might not have much warning. Otherwise, expect the warmth to continue....until late March and April...similar to Oct/Nov when we have a slightly cooler than normal look

If a widespread region does get snow in the Southeast, it probably won't come from a Gulf low with cold air in place...instead it would be a screaming neg. tilt system that goes from rain to snow, or an upper low. Who knows though. The pattern looks active thats for sure.

[superjames1992]

Great read, Robert.  Thanks for the post.

[WilkesboroDude]

Conclusion:

 

 Despite being a winter wx enthusiast like most posters, I'm not the least bit worried about a warm Jan. when I see stats like what is listed for the analogs. Let's face it: a mild to warm Jan. in the SE US is likely based on these analogs, especially when considering that three of the four near normal or colder Jan.'s were during El Ninos, and that the model hints including the Euro weeklies (fwiw) suggest coming warmth into the medium range. IMO, it would relieve a lot of stress if readers would go ahead and accept that Jan. of 2013 is very likely not going to be a cold month as a whole but at the same time know that wintry prospects for some points during the period late Jan. through March look quite promising.

 

So are we just looking at early March through mid March now maybe? Do you have any analogs that would match winter weather late March into April?