Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[Superstorm93]

Here is a 2013 hurricane outlook from  Weatherundergroud.com

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/HurricaneDean07/comment.html?entrynum=39

 

Pretty sure that's just someones personal blog. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

A very talented local Long Beach photographer documented her experience with Hurricane Sandy

from her home near Lincoln Blvd and East Broadway in Long Beach.

 

 

Amazing all the years I as a surfer hoped for hurricanes and then it happened. They are fun to watch and suck to live through. I lived for 3 years a block from the canals house burn. My former apt was on the beach and a complete loss. (in the years I lived there i never thought it possible because it had made it through 38) So sad, those weren't right people who have/had the means to rebuild. I have and will always love hurricanes but when it hits home it hits home. Talk about a tear jerker. 2013 rip and roar but send the landfalls to unpopulated areas...

[icebreaker5221]

Klotzbach outlook comes Wednesday, I think.

 

 

Yup, surprised no one posted it yet, here it is:

 

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2013/apr2013/apr2013.pdf

 

 

Edit: They went 179% average seasonal ACE, with 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 majors. 

[Ed Lizard]

Yup, surprised no one posted it yet, here it is:

 

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2013/apr2013/apr2013.pdf

 

 

Edit: They went 179% average seasonal ACE, with 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 majors. 

 

 

I was just coming here to post that....  About a third above normal on all the landfall prospects.

[bluewave]

So do we continue or end the 96 named storm streak this season of no Atlantic category 5 hurricanes since Felix in 2007?

We went 72 named storms in the 90's between Andrew and Mitch.

[icebreaker5221]

So do we continue or end the 96 named storm streak this season of no Atlantic category 5 hurricanes since Felix in 2007?

We went 72 named storms in the 90's between Andrew and Mitch.

 

Two other impressive streaks:

 

There has not been a major hurricane landfall in the US since 2005.

 

There have been no hurricane landfalls - of any strength - in FL since 2005. 

[bluewave]

Two other impressive streaks:

 

There has not been a major hurricane landfall in the US since 2005.

 

There have been no hurricane landfalls - of any strength - in FL since 2005. 

 

I would never have made  that bet near the end of 2005. Anyone that came on here even suggesting

that we see that kind of streak back then probably wouldn't have been taken too seriously.

[HM]

 

HM, what are your thoughts re: why instability has been generally reduced since 2005, and especially since 2008, in the Atlantic? Is it related to the Arctic ozone layer and reduced summertime ice pack recently?

 

I would very much appreciate your input.

I'm sorry I missed this. I will try to give a more substantial answer in the future but clearly the 2010-2012 period has been notably drier in the mid-upper levels of the Tropical Atlantic than 2002-05. Instability is calculated here using theta-e. A combination of the Mid Latitude pattern for ASO (PDO-AMO-Drought-Polar related, producing a stronger anticyclone over 60W in Atlantic) and the explosion from the IO (an increase in tropical forcing here) strengthening the African-Indo Hadley Cell are the direct reasons. The Mid Latitude pattern is responsible for an increased flux of stability from the north and it is working in tandem with the strengthened Hadley Cell too (the combination has produced a large-scale deformation in the mid-upper levels over the Tropical Atlantic and widespread warmer than normal upper levels across the Atlantic). The enhancement here may seem counterintuitive but it has significantly increased the upper level easterly jet into South America, cirrus/outflow production into Atlantic (a warming agent) and general mass flux westward. So while the African waves may get beefier and the ITCZ may come substantially further north in our current regime, it becomes very sensitive to Mid Latitude influences and upper level exhaust. Someone needs to cool down the African-Indian Hadley Cell!  

 

It has been an interesting trend recently, but I wouldn't be too quick to generalize like that.  Three years of below average instability in the MDR does not yet make a trend on climate time scale.  Also, I see no reason for climate change to favor reduced instability in the Atlantic while the other basins have not been experiencing the same trend. 

While I agree that it is too early to relate this to climate change, it could work out this way that the Atlantic sees the strongest reduction in instability. See my post above.

[am19psu]

I know it's been observed, but I can't figure out the physical mechanism for the Hadley Cell strengthening over the last 3 years

[MJO812]

This is from Reuters

 

 

 

Top U.S. storm team sees above average Atlantic hurricane season

(Reuters) - The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season will be "above average" with 18 tropical storms, nine of which will intensify into hurricanes, forecasters at Colorado State University predicted on Wednesday.

Four of the hurricanes will be major with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour, the leading U.S. storm research team said.

An average season brings about 12 tropical storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, according to CSU. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

The prediction for a busier 2013 season was based on two factors, the researchers said. Hurricanes thrive on warm water and the Atlantic Ocean has warmed in recent months.

There is also little expectation of an El Nino effect this summer and fall.

El Nino is a warming of surface waters in the tropical Pacific that occurs every four to 12 years and has far-ranging effects around the globe. The weather phenomenon creates wind shear that makes it harder for storms to develop into hurricanes in the Atlantic-Caribbean basin.

The researchers said there was a 72 percent chance that a major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast this year, compared with a historical average of 52 percent.

There is a 48 percent chance a major hurricane will hit the U.S. East Coast, compared with a historical average of 31 percent, and a 47 percent chance one would hit the Gulf of Mexico coast, compared with an average of 30 percent.

The 2012 hurricane season spawned 19 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes, including Hurricane Sandy, which hit the northeastern United States in October after rampaging through the Caribbean.

Sandy killed more than 200 people and caused more than $71 billion of damage in New York and New Jersey.

 

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/10/us-usa-weather-hurricanes-idUSBRE9390SV20130410

[bluewave]

I know it's been observed, but I can't figure out the physical mechanism for the Hadley Cell strengthening over the last 3 years

 

Some of the information that I have seen suggests that they expect Indian Ocean convection to increase

along with a decrease around the Caribbean. The summer tropical rainfall patterns since around 

2006 compared to the previous 7 years match this general model projection. So I guess the next step

will be to do  studies that include the recent summers to see if it is natural variability or part of the long term

model expected change.

 

Projection

 

 

recent years

 

[HM]

 

I know it's been observed, but I can't figure out the physical mechanism for the Hadley Cell strengthening over the last 3 years

This is a bit multi-dimensional in terms of time scales and climatic scales. From a long-term, climate perspective, there is no doubt the Indian Ocean has been getting warmer and the western Pacific Warm Pool has strengthened. Global warming has caused thermal expansion and it has been accelerated in these areas. But this does not explain why the last 3 years were more anomalous than the 3 before that only.

On a seasonal-scale, with considerable lag, what goes on in the southern hemisphere over the southern IO is one of the most important processes. While the IOD gets most of the attention, it is the IOSD that should be getting, at the very least, equal attention. What happens in their winter and their summer affects what happens in our subsequent winter and summer. Not only can this area clue you in on what ENSO may potentially do, by the way, but it can clue you in on how the northern IO's monsoon season and Hadley Cell may fare. Hemispheric exchange through time lagged coupled ocean-atmospheric processes are some of the most confusing tools to implement in long range forecasting and the least talked about forces in our field. Despite their immediate effects on Australia, Africa etc., they affect the major players of the Tropics that ultimately affect us.

Maybe we can get into this more in-depth in a month or so.

http://www-aos.eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~yamagata/article04C001974.pdf

http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/prwaylen/matyas/3Ash_Matyas_2010.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subtropical_Indian_Ocean_Dipole

Check out her work, especially the last one listed in 2009:

http://www6.cityu.edu.hk/see/personal/Wen_Zhou.htm

[Eyewall2005]

Hmm.. :0( maybe not so active after all. Time will tell

 

European MSLP

 

Ensemble view

 

[Ed Lizard]

Hmm.. :0( maybe not so active after all. Time will tell

 

European MSLP

 

Ensemble view

 

This thread has kept me from irrational exuberance

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39826-2013-enso-mega-thread/

 

 

[Sunny and Warm]

This thread has kept me from irrational exuberance

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39826-2013-enso-mega-thread/

 

 

why?  It wouldn't be a strong Nino based on that chart, and the lag time for any effects would be at the end of the season.  Worse case IMHO is october onward.  I personally don't believe we see 19 storms again this year.  It seems forecasters are letting the recent past bias their predictions, or so it seems to me.  Just ask how many seasons produced back to back 19+ years.  How many would then predict this to be the first time that has occurred??  A little more continuity with regard to climatology may be in order here.

[phlwx]

we've had 19 three years in a row and the average since '95 is 15, with 11/18 years including 95 producing 15+

 

I also wouldn't look at anything prior to the 60's regarding full season statistics given the lack of satellite data...there are some storms we've likely not seen because they were out in the middle of the Atlantic or halfastorms that NHC would designate today that weren't designated in those days.

 

Getting 16-18 wouldn't surprise me one bit this year.

[MJO812]

Washington post

 

Four groups predicting very active season

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/04/16/four-groups-predict-very-active-hurricane-season/?wprss=rss_homepage

[AvantHiatus]

Potential subtropical activity going on in the Atlantic next week. GFS also shows a hybrid low pressure area in that general region.

 

[hurricaneman]

Potential subtropical activity going on in the Atlantic next week. GFS also shows a hybrid low pressure area in that general region.

 

 

I don't think it will be more than a strong nor'easter, but with the tropics anything can happen and has happened

[am19psu]

It's obviously frontal on both the euro and gfs

[bluewave]

Models hinting at first sub-tropical sloppygyre rainer of the season in the beginning of May.

 

[Srain]

^^

 

That sort of scenario tends to fit with the latest EUROSIP Seasonal trends. The Caribbean and Gulf are showing much lower pressures ~vs~ last year when above normal pressures were suggested most of the 2012 Season for those areas.

[icebreaker5221]

^^

 

That sort of scenario tends to fit with the latest EUROSIP Seasonal trends. The Caribbean and Gulf are showing much lower pressures ~vs~ last year when above normal pressures were suggested most of the 2012 Season for those areas.

 

 

Although the ensemble mean of the EUROSIP suggests slightly lower than average pressures, there's a huge variance in the Atlantic.  The ECMWF component to EUROSIP is actually forecasting higher than average pressures in the Atlantic (along with a developing El Nino), while I suspect the UKMET, MetFrance and NCEP are pulling the mean towards lower than average MSLP. 

[AvantHiatus]

12z GFS attempts to cook up a scenario that resembles Hurricane Sandy. A large cutoff low moves into the Ohio Valley while a coastal/subtropical system forms in the Western Atlantic. One of the more interesting model runs I have ever observed. However, the validity and tropical nature of the above solution remains up for debate.

 

May appears to have the potential to be active, will need to watch the situation.

[hurricaneman]

heres Hurricane Alleys landfall forecast and its another forecast for an active season for the Gulf Coast

 

http://www.hurricanealley.net/FORECASTS/2013FRCSTMAP.jpg

[Quincy]

The typically favored May/June area for tropical cyclogeneisis of the Caribbean and Bahama region are currently seeing above average SST anomalies. Interestingly, the western Gulf of Mexico is running slightly below average. It's early enough in the year for that to change though.

 

There's certainly a lot of heat content up the East Coast, so who knows...maybe there could be a 3rd year in a row with a tropical-type system threatening the mid-Atlantic and/or Northeast coast?

[Ed Lizard]

Models hinting at first sub-tropical sloppygyre rainer of the season in the beginning of May.

 

North32America_msl_228.gif

Euro may still be hinting at something.  Nothing too exciting, Gulf is chilly, but this Spring, I take what I can get.  Side note- ECMWF provides phase analysis data to FSU tropical site, but delayed 2 days?

 

[bluewave]

Euro may still be hinting at something.  Nothing too exciting, Gulf is chilly, but this Spring, I take what I can get.  Side note- ECMWF provides phase analysis data to FSU tropical site, but delayed 2 days?

 

 

I think it would mostly be an opportunity for Florida to pick up some much needed rainfall with

the potential subtropical low. Areas to the north could see some stronger winds as a result of

the gradient between the strong high to the north and the low.

 

 

 

[wxmx]

Next 2 weeks should see a boost in SSTAs for the MDR...No true -NAO or -AO, but a very strong and persistent Azores low, coupled with a NW Atlantic high that will morph into a  west -NAO  should keep low level westerly anomalies in the deep tropics.

[icebreaker5221]

I think it would mostly be an opportunity for Florida to pick up some much needed rainfall with

the potential subtropical low. Areas to the north could see some stronger winds as a result of

the gradient between the strong high to the north and the low.

 

 

I'm not at all surprised there hasn't been more discussion.  At best, it looks like a weaker, sloppier version of last year's Debby undergoing a purely subtropical genesis - and that's if all the ingredients come together at the right time.  Not nearly enough to entice the tight-core weenies. 

 

But I agree 100% that if FL can kill this dry spell it will have all been worth it.