hudsonvalley21 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 12z NAM showing 5.0" for KSWF. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kswf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 its another nowcast event for us up here...nws has a wwa up but they playing this event as a rain/snow/mix with some icing. the coldest guidance spits out a decent all snow 3-5" event while the warmest guidance spits out an all slop event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Upton: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 12z NAM: MGJ -- .66" (6") ends as zr SWF -- .65" (5") ends as zr DXR -- .61" (4") ends as ra FWN -- .69" (5") ends as zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 12z RGEM is warmer and ends most of us in a mix.. .39-.59" for the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Somoeone up here is going to be getting a significant ice storm. Probably in about a 20 mile swath north of I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 so upton thinks the r/s line sets up around I84 in SW CT then from the I684/I84 junction, SW to the I287/I87 junction in SE NY. that or....they have a pre schooler coloring their maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 so upton thinks the r/s line sets up around I84 in SW CT then from the I684/I84 junction, SW to the I287/I87 junction in SE NY. that or....they have a pre schooler coloring their maps. Mt. Holly disagrees. Keep in mind they were generated before the 12z guidance came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 FWIW, Upton has 0.25"+ of ice for the far NE corner of Morris County and extreme south west Passaic County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 That transition zone is gonna be nasty.. 1-2" of snow followed by .25" of ice. ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 trending icy? well lets put some sleet down on top of 1-2 inches of snow; lock in a new snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 trending icy? well lets put some sleet down on top of 1-2 inches of snow; lock in a new snowpack Yeah southern areas of the NW zones probably will have 1-2" followed by a nice icy layer. The northern part of the NW zones look to be more snowy (3-5") ending as some zr perhaps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 FWIW, a lof of the NWS offices over Arkansas and Mississippi have ice storm warnings in place. Expecting 0.25-0.4" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 enjoy snywx hope you stay all snow hoping we can tick colder here; fingers crossed euro holds serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I wouldn't mind a little zr/ip on top.. Does wonders with preserving a snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This may sound selfish but I'd rather get a big ice storm up this way rather than another 2-3" of slop. I've already gotten 3 or 4 small storms this year. Go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This may sound selfish but I'd rather get a big ice storm up this way rather than another 2-3" of slop. I've already gotten 3 or 4 small storms this year. Go big or go home. Well most guidance is giving your area a nice ice storm so your wish may come true.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 hows the euro looking temp wise for NNJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Well most guidance is giving your area a nice ice storm so your wish may come true.. I know ice storms aren't fun. They are just another aspect of extreme weather so i'll take it. I'll still have to make the trip into work in the morning no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 That transition zone is gonna be nasty.. 1-2" of snow followed by .25" of ice. ouch! Will have to see where the ZR line sets up. Could be some heavy slop tomorrow morn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This may sound selfish but I'd rather get a big ice storm up this way rather than another 2-3" of slop. I kinda got that impression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I kinda got that impression Yeah I guess I'm not defined as normal. I like extreme weather. A big ice storm would certainly fit the bill. Of course in the morning when I'm sleding to work I'll be cursing myself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 That transition zone is gonna be nasty.. 1-2" of snow followed by .25" of ice. ouch! Hi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 34 dpt27 looks like its going to be a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Started a obs thread for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY.* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS IN NEW YORK.* HAZARDS...MODERATE SNOW. SNOW COULD OCCASIONALLY MIX WITH SLEET...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF SCRANTON...WILKES-BARRE... HONESDALE...AND MONTICELLO.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.* TIMING...STEADY SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE POCONOS...AS WELL AS THE WILKES-BARRE SCRANTON METRO AREA...BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE NORTHWARD...REACHING THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY...BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4 AND 10 AM...WITH AGAIN A SNOW SLEET MIX POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 84. BY LATER IN THE MORNING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF.* TEMPERATURES...BETWEEN 25 AND 30 OVERNIGHT...RISING INTO THE LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.* WINDS...VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Upton bumped up their totals big time at 5:30. Last update had Danbury at 0.8"...now has them at 3.1". Swath of 4+ Must be going with the colder guidance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Upton bumped up their totals big time at 5:30. Last update had Danbury at 0.8"...now has them at 3.1". Swath of 4+ Must be going with the colder guidance... I am in the Mt Holly zone, but I do review both forecast zones. That maps seems to indicate I should get around 3 to max 5 inches. Tomorrow mornings commute down to Bergen county will long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Upton bumped again... Close to 5" throughout Orange County now.. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Upton bumped again... Close to 5" throughout Orange County now.. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php 18z NAM for KSWF is 4.6" then 6 hours of ZR but only 0.05 of QPF with the ZR. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 643 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS AHEAD OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WAVE WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COASTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THAT STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH...EVOLVING AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASING BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT. WITH INCREASING ISOENTROPIC LIFT...ONSET OF PRECIP LIKELY 3-6Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER NOTING REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS BY HRRR AND PRECIP FIELDS OF NAM...GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC. THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION INCREASES TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THE REGION GETS CLOSER TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 160-180 KT JET AROUND 250MB. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FOCUSED MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH ABRUPT CUTOFFS TO THE GFS AND NAM SNOWFALL BUT LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND LAYERS ENOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR WET BULB COOLING ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET. CONCERNING PRECIP TYPE...A COMPLEX FORECAST. GENERALLY THOUGH EXPECTING SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS...MIXING WITH SLEET TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH RAIN AND SLEET AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT...SOME WARMING IN THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 900 AND 700 HPA...WILL PRESENT A LARGE ENOUGH LAYER TO REDUCE THE HYDROMETEORS TO SLEET ESPECIALLY WITH ANY HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION. SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ACROSS A PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AREAS BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF WET BULB COOLING AND TEMPERATURES ARE RIGHT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. SOME CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WITH THE RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW LINES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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