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January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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The pattern on the 240 hrs GEFS and Euro ensemble means are not that bad. Both have low heights near nova scotia and higher heights over Greenland. The ridge position is along the west ocast is better. The only bad thing is the lack of a southern stream and the below normal heights over AK just north of the flat ridge. The latter may let more energy than we'd like get into western Canada with that energy digging towards the lakes where we could have northern stream clipper type lows going to our north. Still it's not a bad look to smaller sneak up events. Pretty much a climo look in terms of snow chances, not great but not totally horrendous like this week.

attachicon.gifJan_10_240hr_2013.png

 

definitely not hostile...I think a 2-4" event would be celebrated..I just want to see .30" of QPF on run without temp issues....

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12z GFS has mitchnicks wintry mix for MRB

 

Been possible for several runs now.  Wide range of possibilities on the ens. members.  I don't think I'd give up on this one even in the cities.

 

Several GFS ens members try to get the cold in here a bit faster than the op. seems to bleed in from the north moreso than a nw-w cold front type trajectory. They also have some partially interesting setups in the 156-180 range. I think it was the Euro 0z that had a similar "near miss" type storm with the cold pushing in in this manner?

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Been possible for several runs now.  Wide range of possibilities on the ens. members.  I don't think I'd give up on this one even in the cities.

 

you have a curious love for individual ensemble members .. what is the upside for the cities in your opinion? I see very little myself.

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A question in my mind for next week is how deep the cold air can get into our area with that initial cold push.  It looks like normally-cold places like Chicago are around 30 for a high temp on Monday but then go up to 40/low 40s by next Wed before coming back down to L-M30s for late next week, when snow chances go up for them.

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So, it seems we get a couple cold blasts, pattern retreats a few days and as the pattern reloads, we are looking for something positive? 

 

I dont think we need to make assumptions about 300+ hours out....but it certainly would make sense that we snap back into a RNA pattern...who knows...the evidence for day 9-12 or so is piling up that it may be good...we just need a storm

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There is none.

 

If I lived where he did, I'd be optimistic.  But there is almost zero reason for us to hold out any hope.  

 

even out there the op is warmer than it was last night at least at 850

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I dont think we need to make assumptions about 300+ hours out....but it certainly would make sense that we snap back into a RNA pattern...who knows...the evidence for day 9-12 or so is piling up that it may be good...we just need a storm

 

It seems like we've got two options--

 

1. Hope a pinwheel sw comes around that strong vortex. Very possible--

 

 

I also think that second Fropa may have some snow showers in front of it as those stronger artic pushes tend to wring out all the moisture. that's be a tracker special- >1 inch. ( really like .5)

 

2. Some marks of  a sw later in the second cold snap, as the cold "may" be lifting out. Ugg? 

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gets snow to southern burbs, but the usual BS with the southern stream this year...weak pathetic 1012 low ambles off the southeast coast....

 

still pretty qpf loaded for now. of course it will probably dry but it brings 1" liquid to the nc/va border

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