Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 weenie dreams right here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 and FEB looks almost as cold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 And the Southern stream is modeled to be active to go along with that cold. January could be incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I don't really trust the CFS stuff, but I know Mitch keeps tabs. How's it done so far, Mitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 I don't really trust the CFS stuff, but I know Mitch keeps tabs. How's it done so far, Mitch? It has nailed both nov and dec from within 2 weeks of the new months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It has nailed both nov and dec from within 2 weeks of the new months We need a smiley of a guy scratching his chin. Because I'd use it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It has nailed both nov and dec from within 2 weeks of the new months yep, it's been surprisingly good this season don't get me wrong, it has waffled a bit too, but as you said, forecasts from mid to late prior forecast months and it's been very good here are some examples: DEC forecast from last 10 days of NOV is top map aqnd bottom map is NOV forecast from the 10 days ending 10/21/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yeah, I think it does well the last 10 days looking into the next month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This has a warmer than normal look over us starting around JAN 7 or 8 with lows again starting to track to our north. I don't like seeing a large area of above normal heights across the eastern third of the country. It doesn't look torchy however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 looks like a brief thaw aroudn the time wes mentioned. MJO supposedly will go into the crappy phases. Euro weeklikes have it getting cold again like jan 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The GFS pops a coastal on the 6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 So.....will any of the three major airports record high temps below freezing next weekend? That would include Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This has a warmer than normal look over us starting around JAN 7 or 8 with lows again starting to track to our north. I don't like seeing a large area of above normal heights across the eastern third of the country. It doesn't look torchy however. I know the MJO is going into phase 4/5 and that is warm/wet typically but the signal seems so weak that I don't see it impacting us as much as it would suggest. The phase 1/2 it has been in certainly didn't usher in the cold like normal. Keep it near the circle of death and I could see us still getting chances. I'm kinda a dummy tho so this post doesn't mean jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I know the MJO is going into phase 4/5 and that is warm/wet typically but the signal seems so weak that I don't see it impacting us as much as it would suggest. The phase 1/2 it has been in certainly didn't usher in the cold like normal. Keep it near the circle of death and I could see us still getting chances. I'm kinda a dummy tho so this post doesn't mean jack. It's not just the MJO, it's the pattern shown on the CPC superens D+11 (which admittedly is model based) which is suggesting that the Ao and NAO will probably be positive and won't have blocking in the place we need it for storms to go south once the Jan 6-7 event or non-event plays out. Note also on the mean that the ridge is off the west coast with below normal heights across the southwest. We've seen that before. having higher than normal heights over us and below normal over the southwest usually means we end up with above normal temps though the flow over canada might offer a cool shot behind and wave that finally comes out of the southwest. Plus the models have a positive epo......that usually offers warmer than normal temps. The good thing is all long range stuff is pretty much a WAG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 It's not just the MJO, it's the pattern shown on the CPC superens D+11 (which admittedly is model based) which is suggesting that the Ao and NAO will probably be positive and won't have blocking in the place we need it for storms to go south once the Jan 6-7 event or non-event plays out. Note also on the mean that the ridge is off the west coast with below normal heights across the southwest. We've seen that before. having higher than normal heights over us and below normal over the southwest usually means we end up with above normal temps though the flow over canada might offer a cool shot behind and wave that finally comes out of the southwest. Plus the models have a positive epo......that usually offers warmer than normal temps. The good thing is all long range stuff is pretty much a WAG. idk, Op Euro isn't really warm for us over the next 10 days don't know what the ens say yet here's day 10 which at least still has a +PNA http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012122912!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Good point Mitch. Here's the anoms for d10 Not perfect but it can easily allow for something sneaky. Of course it's d10 but I'd much rather see this than a big trough out west and + height anomaly west of that in the pac... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Good point Mitch. Here's the anoms for d10 Not perfect but it can easily allow for something sneaky. Of course it's d10 but I'd much rather see this than a big trough out west and + height anomaly west of that in the pac... The euro D+10 ens mean also does not look that warm but also look like it would have a steady stream of clipper probably going to our north which also isn't real cold despite the nice ridge over Western Canada. Remembr also, the D+11 isa 5 day centered mean so it will look different than a day 10 ens mean. The look of euro ens mean at least does not appear to be showing a positive epo to me. However, a big negative north of hudson bay is not usually a cold pattern for us as storms still track to our north. We'd be more in a roller coaster type pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Agree Wes. The Euro ensemble pattern would suggest a fairly dry and seasonable regime to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Agree Wes. The Euro ensemble pattern would suggest a fairly dry and seasonable regime to me. Yes. Unfortunately the well referenced Arctic onset will not occur. It's anecdotal(sp) somewhat but what gets me excited, via expereince, is when I can see Mongolian High pressure along with other favorable circumstances. For last 30 days and looking forward next 10 that region has been at or below pressure anomoly wise, we need it above. I have seen it get cold in DC without the referenced Mongolia High but the vast majority of lengthy, serious cold snaps around DC almost always have the plus pressure anomoly around Mongolia about 5 days before the onset of the cold around DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I'm sure this post will illicit a IDK from Mitch or Bob but the pattern continues to look like it is going downhill for the 1st half of January. The remains of the upper low that today's Nam has over the plains probably is our best shot at a storm and it looks like it will shear out as it come east keeping any low suppressed. Then the pattern really goes to pieces according to the cpc superens mean. Note the big negative anomaly that extends across much of Canada into the u.s west of us and the above normal heights over the east extending ene to nova scotia. That's a warm pattern for us. Not a torch as there is enough ridging over Ak to bring cold air into the plains and behind fronts we would see brief cold shots. However, lows would likely you to our north and lead to us averaging warmer than normal temps This warmer than normal look has been on the last couple of super ens means and is probalby the reason for the warm look on the CPC 8-14 day forecast. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ The Euro ens mean from last night also looks on the warm side with it's big vortex over northern Hudson Bay, above normal heights over most of the U.S. and lack of any ridging over AK. The suerens mean and Euro provide different looks but both are pattern that look warmer than normal for us, Both also suggest the the chances of snow for the Jan 7-13 period are probably below normal. The good news is not that I've said the pattern looks below normal for the Jan 7-13, it will probably snow like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 IDK Wes. LOL GFS brings back some nice blocking over gl in the lr. Pac doesn't give me a warm and fuzzy but still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I imagine the next few weeks will provide us more opportunities for 1-2" marginal events in the exurbs that give me 0.2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 fwiw, CFS2 monthly does not support Wes but weeklies for weeks 3 and 4 do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I imagine the next few weeks will provide us more opportunities for 1-2" marginal events in the exurbs that give me 0.2". Sure, and while I appreciate Bob and others trying to put a brave face on that, this isn't a whole lot better at this point than last year's fiasco. Its not helping to see Wes and others nuking the first 15-20 days or so of January at that point, either. Because right around January 20 the reminders will start that the effective period for snow in our area is down to a matter of weeks. Joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 fwiw, CFS2 monthly does not support Wes but weeklies for weeks 3 and 4 do Mitch, are there any stats that support that thing as being accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Mitch, are there any stats that support that thing as being accurate? selective memory > stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Mitch, are there any stats that support that thing as being accurate? they have prior month forecasts on the site, some months great, others ok, and others bad compared to other lr models, I don't know of any head-to-head comparisons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 selective memory > stats I said "fwiw" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Sure, and while I appreciate Bob and others trying to put a brave face on that, this isn't a whole lot better at this point than last year's fiasco. Its not helping to see Wes and others nuking the first 15-20 days or so of January at that point, either. Because right around January 20 the reminders will start that the effective period for snow in our area is down to a matter of weeks. Joy. The other day, I saw daffodils poking up near a neighbor's mailbox, and there are more than a few forsythias in bloom in my neighborhood. I'm looking forward to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The other day, I saw daffodils poking up near a neighbor's mailbox, and there are more than a few forsythias in bloom in my neighborhood. I'm looking forward to spring. Saw a fly on the front porch two days ago. Alive. And happily buzzing around. Yeah, been warm. Wes certainly right to note that even the "cold" airmasses have not been remotely cold so far this winter, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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