When Will NYC See The Next 5 Degrees Or Lower Annual Minimum Temperature?

[bluewave]

Year....Annual Minimum Temperature

2012...13
2011...6
2010..13
2009...6
2008..10
2007...8
2006...15
2005...5
2004...1
2003..7
2002..19
2001...16
2000...3
1999...9
1998...14
1997...4
1996...5
1995...6
1994...-2
1993...7
1992...11
1991...10
1990...7
1989...6
1988...5
1987...4
1986...8
1985...-2
1984...8
1983..4
1982...0
1981...2
1980...-1
1979...0
1978...10
1977...-2
1976...-1
1975...15
1974...6
1973...7
1972...5
1971...4
1970...3
1969...11
1968...-1
1967...4
1966...8
1965...9
1964...9
1963...-2
1962....4
1961...-2
1960...8
1959...7
1958...3
1957...0
1956...14
1955...0
1954...7
1953...14
1952...8
1951...8
1950...5


Maps showing the warming of Canada since 1950:

[uncle W]

the winter minimums have gone up in a hurry the last few decades...Five degrees used to happen almost every year...since 1980 the average winter low temp is seven...Since 1880 it's four...

ten yr. ave...

1880's.....-0.5

1890's......2.3

1900's......3.7

1910's......1.4

1920's......3.8

1930's......4.9

1940's......4.7

1950's......6.0

1960's......4.1

1970's......5.4

1980's......4.1

1990's......6.7

2000's......9.7

2010's......9.5

1870-

2009........4.3

1980-

2009........6.8

[bluewave]

the winter minimums have gone up in a hurry the last few decades...Five degrees used to happen almost every year...since 1980 the average winter low temp is seven...Since 1880 it's four...

ten yr. ave...

1880's.....-0.5

1890's......2.3

1900's......3.7

1910's......1.4

1920's......3.8

1930's......4.9

1940's......4.7

1950's......6.0

1960's......4.1

1970's......5.4

1980's......4.1

1990's......6.7

2000's......9.7

2010's......9.5

1870-

2009........4.3

1980-

2009........6.8

Thanks for adding those stats, Uncle.

[tamarack]

It still puzzles me that NYC only made it down to 6 in Jan 2009, when there were widespread -30s and -40s in NNE, and on consecutive days (and in 2 separate cold waves), so it wasn't just one-and-done HPs that had no chance to influence points to the south.

[JBG]

It still puzzles me that NYC only made it down to 6 in Jan 2009, when there were widespread -30s and -40s in NNE, and on consecutive days (and in 2 separate cold waves), so it wasn't just one-and-done HPs that had no chance to influence points to the south.

Probably some UHI if that is the case. But even some notable cold spells such as December 24-25, 1969 had widespread -30s and -40s in NNE and upstate New York only produced +13 in NYC.

[Guest Pamela]

It still puzzles me that NYC only made it down to 6 in Jan 2009, when there were widespread -30s and -40s in NNE, and on consecutive days (and in 2 separate cold waves), so it wasn't just one-and-done HPs that had no chance to influence points to the south.

On those consecutive days in January 2009, Westhampton Beach, L.I. saw -15 F and -16 F so UHI is a factor, IMO.

[tamarack]

Probably some UHI if that is the case. But even some notable cold spells such as December 24-25, 1969 had widespread -30s and -40s in NNE and upstate New York only produced +13 in NYC.

 

Just got back to this thread.  That 12/69 cold may have been -30s/-40s in NNY, but I've not found it in NNE, though lots of minus teens/20s.  Also looks like the 2009 cold was far more severe in Maine/NNH than in the rest of NNE, probably another reason why it failed to reach NYC.  CAR must be almost 3 times as far from NYC as is SLK.

[JBG]

Just got back to this thread.  That 12/69 cold may have been -30s/-40s in NNY, but I've not found it in NNE, though lots of minus teens/20s.  Also looks like the 2009 cold was far more severe in Maine/NNH than in the rest of NNE, probably another reason why it failed to reach NYC.  CAR must be almost 3 times as far from NYC as is SLK.

It is actually a multiple further.  I was using 12/69 as an example.  Other similar examples, if I remember correctly, were 1/70 and 1/71. KNYC dipped below 5 but not below zero, and upstate NY had -30's - -40's.  NNE didn't do that well in 12/60 either; east of the Connecticut River went to fairly warm rain (ZR in NH though) during the uber-storm of 12/25-27/1969.

[CIK62]

The answer to your question is that as soon as I finish reading every word of the Encylopedia Britanica and its annual supplements, I will check my maxi-mini digital thermometer (you know the one with a perpetual calendar) and let you know.    Something should turn up by then.    Right now I am concerned that since Dec. 01 only 4 days have been below normal   in NYC.    Models keep 'proging' single digits long range but always take them back.      If we are lucky 5 of the next 8 days will be below normal but warmer than predicted a week ago for the same period.    Apparently 5 degs. is still a possibilty into the first week of March in CPK but those records are well over 100 years old.

[uncle W]

the last time we had single digits in February was 2007...eight degrees...The last time we had them in March was  1967...eight degrees...This could be the sixth winter in the last eight without single digit temperatures...

The list of arctic outbreaks since the 1870's with zero or lower temps...2004 was added...It had two one degree days...

NYC's Arctic outbreaks...
Max..Min...dates
17.....09.....1/14-16/2004
18.....02
24.....01
....................................................................
29.....06.....1/9-11/2004
15.....01
27.....07
........................................................................
42.....32.....1/25-27/1994
32.....05
31.....00
.........................................................................
35.....04.....1/18-20/1994
10......-2
15.....00
.......................................................................
23.....04.....1/20-22/1985
09......-2
31.....09
..........................................
............................................................................
35.....19.....1/16-18/1982
19.....00
15.....00
..........................................................................
37.....20.....12/24-26/1980
20......-1
23.....08
.............................................................................
13.....04.....2/17-19/1979
17.....00
28.....17
.............................................................................
26.....07.....1/16-18/1977
12......-2
13.....02
..........................................................................
28.....05.....1/22-24/1976
15......-1
22.....14
.............................................................................
12.....02.....1/8-10/1968
14......-1
17.....03
............................................................................
44.....25.....2/7-9/1963
25......-2
34.....11
.........................................................................
24.....03.....2/1-3/1961
20......-2
28.....07
..........................................................................
23.....06.....1/14-16/1957
12.....00
25.....11
........................................................................
28.....10.....2/2-4/1955
17.....00
37.....08
........................................................................
24.....04.....1/30-2/1/1948
20.....00
26.....09
.........................................................................
30.....05.....2/14-16/1943
08......-8
22.....04
..........................................................................
25.....08.....12/19-21/1942
08......-4
21......-1
...........................................................................
24......-3.....1/23-25/1936
16.....04
20.....08
...........................................................................
18.....02.....1/27-29/1935
25......-1
34.....16
..........................................................................
21......-7.....2/8-10/1934
08....-15
26......-2
..........................................................................
12......-3.....12/29-31/1933
15......-6
42.....15
........................................................................
36.....03.....1/25-27/1927
25......-1
44.....22
.........................................................................
42.....04.....1/27-29/1925
14......-2
34.....13
.........................................................................
30.....05.....2/16-18/1922
17......-2
34.....08
........................................................................
26......-1.....1/31-2/2/1920
24......-2
40.....22
...........................................................................
21.....01.....12/17-19/1919
11......-1
20.....10
...........................................................................
31.....00.....2/4-6/1918
04......-6
38.....01
...........................................................................
08......-6.....12/29-1/4 1917-18
02.....-13
06......-7
10......-4
10.....02
12.....00
18......-3
.............................................
23.....08.....2/11-13/1917
12.....03
24.....00
............................................
21.....02.....2/11-13/1914
10......-3
26......-1
...............................................
33.....09.....1/12-14/1914
09......-3
18......-5
............................................
19.....05.....1/12-14/1912
08......-3..
23.....02
..............................................
19.....05.....1/12-14/1912
08......-3..
23.....02
..............................................
11......-2.....2/9-13/1899
07......-6
09......-2
09.....04
11.....06
..............................................
44.....06.....2/16-18/1896
07......-5
26.....01
.....................................................................

18.....06.....1/5-7/1896
12......-2
25.....06
...............................................
11.....00.....2/5-8/1895
10......-4
13.....06
08.....02
...............................................
16.....01.....1/21-23/1888
14.....00
24.....07
.............................................
12.....00.....2/4-6/1886
07......-4.....
20.....03.....
...............................................
16.....07.....1/11-13/1886
08.....02.....
14.....02.....
...............................................
16......-1.....12/19-21/1884
07......-3
36.....07.....
...................................................
25.....10.....12/22-24/1883
10......-1.....
31.....07.....
..............................................
13.....00.....1/23-25/1882
06......-6.....
29.....03
..........................................
21.....03.....2/1-3/1881
09......-3.....
18.....01
.......................................
21.....10.....12/28-1/1/1880-81
10.....04.....
04......-6.....
10.....03.....
16.....01
..........................................
33.....03.....1/2-4/1879
07......-4.....
26.....06.....
..............................................

[tamarack]

   Apparently 5 degs. is still a possibilty into the first week of March in CPK but those records are well over 100 years old.

 

Just for grins, I looked at NYC temps 1960 onward (picked as a "convenient" date that provided 50+ yr), looking for single-digit minima Feb. 15 and later - 2nd half Feb plus March.  In 53 yr that happened just 13 times, 4 in the 60s, 5 in the 70s, 2 in the 80s, once in 1990 and once in 2003.  For 5 and lower, just 4X, in 68, 79 (twice, including zero on 2/19), and 87.  Exactly one of those 13 was in March, 3/19/67 with 8, and the only one over the past 22 yr was the 8 minimum on 2/16/03, the day PDII arrived.  Latest 5 or below was 2/21/68.

[tamarack]

Interesting graphs, though the data points appear 1-2F lower than what I have (from multiple sources) for Central Park - consistently so, thus the trends shown should be valid. The warming of Feb relative to Jan is quite significant; whether it points to a warming climate eating away at the shoulders of winter is uncertain. However, the the fairly consistent period of Feb colder than Jan 1901-50 is also a bit odd. Generally it's only extreme maritime influence that results in Feb colder than Jan, so Battery Place would've been less of a surprise than Central Park, and SSTs have also warmed, though less so than the land temps.

Below are 10-yr averages for the differences between Jan and Feb temps, beginning in 1871. The decades run 01-10, etc, to conform to the 30-yr intervals used for "normal". Negative numbers indicate that Feb averaged warmer than Jan. (Note: 1991 is not included, as temp record is missing for 2/91. At EWR, Feb was 5.1F milder than Jan; using that for NYC would boost the 1991-00 avg to 2.20.))

1871-80...-0.93

1881-90...-2.39

1891-00....0.02

1901-10....2.76

1911-20....1.38

1921-30...-1.46

1931-40....1.76

1941-50....0.23

1951-60...-2.55

1961-70...-1.31

1971-80...-0.93

1981-90...-4.24

1991-00...-1.88

2001-10...-1.53

14 decades avg: -0.84

Avg 1871-1950..0.17 The 1871-90 decades run counter to the trend.

Avg 1951-2010.-2.17

[bluewave]

Interesting graphs, though the data points appear 1-2F lower than what I have (from multiple sources) for Central Park - consistently so, thus the trends shown should be valid. The warming of Feb relative to Jan is quite significant; whether it points to a warming climate eating away at the shoulders of winter is uncertain. However, the the fairly consistent period of Feb colder than Jan 1901-50 is also a bit odd. Generally it's only extreme maritime influence that results in Feb colder than Jan, so Battery Place would've been less of a surprise than Central Park, and SSTs have also warmed, though less so than the land temps.

Below are 10-yr averages for the differences between Jan and Feb temps, beginning in 1871. The decades run 01-10, etc, to conform to the 30-yr intervals used for "normal". Negative numbers indicate that Feb averaged warmer than Jan. (Note: 1991 is not included, as temp record is missing for 2/91. At EWR, Feb was 5.1F milder than Jan; using that for NYC would boost the 1991-00 avg to 2.20.))

1871-80...-0.93

1881-90...-2.39

1891-00....0.02

1901-10....2.76

1911-20....1.38

1921-30...-1.46

1931-40....1.76

1941-50....0.23

1951-60...-2.55

1961-70...-1.31

1971-80...-0.93

1981-90...-4.24

1991-00...-1.88

2001-10...-1.53

14 decades avg: -0.84

Avg 1871-1950..0.17 The 1871-90 decades run counter to the trend.

Avg 1951-2010.-2.17

 

Thanks for posting those numbers for each decade. We have to go all the way back to 1990 to see a daily

record ow temperature during  February in NYC.

 

[bluewave]

the last time we had single digits in February was 2007...eight degrees...The last time we had them in March was  1967...eight degrees...This could be the sixth winter in the last eight without single digit temperatures...

The list of arctic outbreaks since the 1870's with zero or lower temps...2004 was added...It had two one degree days...

NYC's Arctic outbreaks...

Max..Min...dates

17.....09.....1/14-16/2004

18.....02

24.....01

....................................................................

29.....06.....1/9-11/2004

15.....01

27.....07

........................................................................

42.....32.....1/25-27/1994

32.....05

31.....00

.........................................................................

35.....04.....1/18-20/1994

10......-2

15.....00

.......................................................................

23.....04.....1/20-22/1985

09......-2

31.....09

..........................................

............................................................................

35.....19.....1/16-18/1982

19.....00

15.....00

..........................................................................

37.....20.....12/24-26/1980

20......-1

23.....08

.............................................................................

13.....04.....2/17-19/1979

17.....00

28.....17

.............................................................................

26.....07.....1/16-18/1977

12......-2

13.....02

..........................................................................

28.....05.....1/22-24/1976

15......-1

22.....14

.............................................................................

12.....02.....1/8-10/1968

14......-1

17.....03

............................................................................

44.....25.....2/7-9/1963

25......-2

34.....11

.........................................................................

24.....03.....2/1-3/1961

20......-2

28.....07

..........................................................................

23.....06.....1/14-16/1957

12.....00

25.....11

........................................................................

28.....10.....2/2-4/1955

17.....00

37.....08

........................................................................

24.....04.....1/30-2/1/1948

20.....00

26.....09

.........................................................................

30.....05.....2/14-16/1943

08......-8

22.....04

..........................................................................

25.....08.....12/19-21/1942

08......-4

21......-1

...........................................................................

24......-3.....1/23-25/1936

16.....04

20.....08

...........................................................................

18.....02.....1/27-29/1935

25......-1

34.....16

..........................................................................

21......-7.....2/8-10/1934

08....-15

26......-2

..........................................................................

12......-3.....12/29-31/1933

15......-6

42.....15

........................................................................

36.....03.....1/25-27/1927

25......-1

44.....22

.........................................................................

42.....04.....1/27-29/1925

14......-2

34.....13

.........................................................................

30.....05.....2/16-18/1922

17......-2

34.....08

........................................................................

26......-1.....1/31-2/2/1920

24......-2

40.....22

...........................................................................

21.....01.....12/17-19/1919

11......-1

20.....10

...........................................................................

31.....00.....2/4-6/1918

04......-6

38.....01

...........................................................................

08......-6.....12/29-1/4 1917-18

02.....-13

06......-7

10......-4

10.....02

12.....00

18......-3

.............................................

23.....08.....2/11-13/1917

12.....03

24.....00

............................................

21.....02.....2/11-13/1914

10......-3

26......-1

...............................................

33.....09.....1/12-14/1914

09......-3

18......-5

............................................

19.....05.....1/12-14/1912

08......-3..

23.....02

..............................................

19.....05.....1/12-14/1912

08......-3..

23.....02

..............................................

11......-2.....2/9-13/1899

07......-6

09......-2

09.....04

11.....06

..............................................

44.....06.....2/16-18/1896

07......-5

26.....01

.....................................................................

18.....06.....1/5-7/1896

12......-2

25.....06

...............................................

11.....00.....2/5-8/1895

10......-4

13.....06

08.....02

...............................................

16.....01.....1/21-23/1888

14.....00

24.....07

.............................................

12.....00.....2/4-6/1886

07......-4.....

20.....03.....

...............................................

16.....07.....1/11-13/1886

08.....02.....

14.....02.....

...............................................

16......-1.....12/19-21/1884

07......-3

36.....07.....

...................................................

25.....10.....12/22-24/1883

10......-1.....

31.....07.....

..............................................

13.....00.....1/23-25/1882

06......-6.....

29.....03

..........................................

21.....03.....2/1-3/1881

09......-3.....

18.....01

.......................................

21.....10.....12/28-1/1/1880-81

10.....04.....

04......-6.....

10.....03.....

16.....01

..........................................

33.....03.....1/2-4/1879

07......-4.....

26.....06.....

..............................................

 

Great stuff as usual, Uncle. We were still able to get a 0 degree reading in February 1955 while the month finished

a bit above average. There was plenty of cold available to out north and west to get drawn down.

 

[bluewave]

Despite the much colder week this year than last, NYC was only able to make it down to 11 degrees.

 

January 2013

 

22  27  13  20 -12  45   0    T    T    0 10.6 20 290   M    M   3 8      29 29023  20  11  16 -16  49   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.8 17 280   M    M   2        26 28024  22  12  17 -15  48   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.4 20 300   M    M   2        31 32025  24  13  19 -13  46   0 0.07  1.5    0  6.6 15 280   M    M   4 18     23 29026  27  15  21 -12  44   0 0.00  0.0    2  6.8 17 300   M    M   1        27 290

 

 

Just 2 degrees colder for the coldest temperature than last January.

 

January 2012

 

 3  33  15  24  -9  41   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.6 20 290   M    M   2        30 280 4  27  13  20 -13  45   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.7 16 290   M    M   2        22 310 5  40  27  34   1  31   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.2 16 300   M    M   7        22 320 6  53  35  44  11  21   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.9 14 230   M    M   1        22 230 7  62  46  54  21  11   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.9 15 250   M    M   0        23 280

[JBG]

Despite the much colder week this year than last, NYC was only able to make it down to 11 degrees.

 

January 2013

 

22  27  13  20 -12  45   0    T    T    0 10.6 20 290   M    M   3 8      29 29023  20  11  16 -16  49   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.8 17 280   M    M   2        26 28024  22  12  17 -15  48   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.4 20 300   M    M   2        31 32025  24  13  19 -13  46   0 0.07  1.5    0  6.6 15 280   M    M   4 18     23 29026  27  15  21 -12  44   0 0.00  0.0    2  6.8 17 300   M    M   1        27 290

 

 

Just 2 degrees colder for the coldest temperature than last January.

 

January 2012

 

 3  33  15  24  -9  41   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.6 20 290   M    M   2        30 280 4  27  13  20 -13  45   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.7 16 290   M    M   2        22 310 5  40  27  34   1  31   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.2 16 300   M    M   7        22 320 6  53  35  44  11  21   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.9 14 230   M    M   1        22 230 7  62  46  54  21  11   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.9 15 250   M    M   0        23 280

Still, only one of those days in 2012 stayed subfreezing through the day and even then barely so.  This year has a far colder cast.

[JBG]

Edit last post to add that we would have made sub-5 temps if we had any snow cover at all in the area.

[bluewave]

Edit last post to add that we would have made sub-5 temps if we had any snow cover at all in the area.

 

Yeah,northerly winds and or snow cover would have most likely resulted in us seeing single digit readings

instead of 11 degrees. The air mass wasn't cold enough for a really strong westerly flow Arctic outbreak

like we had in 94 and 85.

 

Our last single digit readings here were in January 2011 with a northerly flow.

 

5:51 AM 7.0 °F -3.3 °F -6.0 °F 55% 30.45 in 10.0 mi North 5.8 mph

[JBG]

Our last single digit readings here were in January 2011 with a northerly flow.

 

5:51 AM 7.0 °F -3.3 °F -6.0 °F 55% 30.45 in 10.0 mi North 5.8 mph

Wasn't there snow cover then too? And you did forget about January 2004 and 2005.

[bluewave]

Wasn't there snow cover then too? And you did forget about January 2004 and 2005.

 

I said the last time, not the only time.

[nzucker]

Could we get close, or at least into the single digits, with the full latitude trough in mid-February? I'm seeing 850 temps near -18C with probable snow cover, maybe even a little colder possible. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Could we get close, or at least into the single digits, with the full latitude trough in mid-February? I'm seeing 850 temps near -18C with probable snow cover, maybe even a little colder possible. 

 

Getting tougher to do as we are getting late in the year. But if we have a chance it will be then. I think the urban heat island just gets stronger and stronger each year as more and larger building go up in in Manhattan (example the 1000 foot building on 57th on the west side.) The more and taller building act to insulate the park. It seems like the difference in temps between the city and burbs grows year after year. Super cooling West Hampton had no problem going below zero (-6) this winter. (not the best example but i love that station)

[pazzo83]

Could we get close, or at least into the single digits, with the full latitude trough in mid-February? I'm seeing 850 temps near -18C with probable snow cover, maybe even a little colder possible. 

 

-18C won't do it at 850 (as that is just around 0F).  We need -25 to -30C at 850 to get in the 5F range in Manhattan.

[uncle W]

two analogs that had late season cold were 1972 and 1980...1972 got down to nine on 2/23 while 1980 hit ten on 3/1...both those years started out mild but ended cold...so far the coldest temp for this winter is 11 set in January...1980 had its coldest temp of the winter on 3/1 while 1972 had a five degree morning in January...

[donsutherland1]

Odds of a 5° reading this winter are now remote.

 

Since 1950, there are only 5 dates on which NYC hit 5° or below on or after February 15:

 

February 18, 1958: 3° (following the February 15-17 blizzard)

February 21, 1968: 5°

February 17, 1979: 4°

February 18, 1979: 0°

February 15, 1987: 4°

 

None of the guidance is suggesting such severe cold is imminent.

[JBG]

two analogs that had late season cold were 1972 and 1980...1972 got down to nine on 2/23 while 1980 hit ten on 3/1...both those years started out mild but ended cold...so far the coldest temp for this winter is 11 set in January...1980 had its coldest temp of the winter on 3/1 while 1972 had a five degree morning in January...

1972 was a dieing La Niña.  Not sure about 1980.