phlwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 euro ens are not as close as the op...but would probably bring some snows to the region. not surprising...my guess is they trend in a bit as we close in on the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Clownin'...but SV maps are very similar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 a 50 mile difference in snow swath 72 hours out is not bad...nudge the differences and you pretty put the snow swath right over 95. () Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 a 50 mile difference in snow swath 72 hours out is not bad...nudge the differences and you pretty put the snow swath right over 95. ( ) lolz, im pretty much sold on a 1-3 2-4...im not yet sold on the coastal. I think a scenario like the gfs/ggem/ukie blend is likely. You get the 2-4 with the northern stream and the coast gets scraped by the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 lolz, im pretty much sold on a 1-3 2-4...im not yet sold on the coastal. I think a scenario like the gfs/ggem/ukie blend is likely. You get the 2-4 with the northern stream and the coast gets scraped by the coastal. If the GFS is right, there'll be some dry slotting in South Jersey. The Euro is definitely their best hope for good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 fwiw here is the 6z rgem...definitely amped up than the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 would like to see some more omega from the gfs. But its in a solid location for decent snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 here is the clown map off the 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 here's the 0z Euro ens compared to the 12z ones. (timing is 12hr difference, due to lack of 10000's of dollars to access of ensembles. lol) The overall point it you can see how much more amp'd there are down south/west. 0z left, 12z right. Would like to see the GFS come around more amp'd to garner support for the 12z euro solution. also, NAM and SREF's came in pretty flat fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 fwiw here is the 6z rgem...definitely amped up than the 0z The 00Z/06Z NOGAPS remain a miss but are basically what the NAM is doing, I'd like to start seeing the NOGAPS catch on. I'm not totally sold yet the 00Z Euro run was not a fluke. The old ETA by the way, at least the 03Z run of it was about as close to Euro like as anything, 09Z run not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 72-hr precip on the 06 GEFS. Good support for a moderate snow with a few heavy hitters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 here is the clown map off the 6z gfs Beat you to it an hour plus ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Beat you to it an hour plus ago. mine has the counties though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 mine has the counties though I was going to post a twister map, but its not of that quality. Wes on the main page has a good explanation of how you can have an "index" positive nao that isn't really positive for us. The fact that he even started a thread is a great sign. The last two sounding runs make much more sense with the pna becoming more positive and if today's sounding run stays the course, I won't even have to golf for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I was going to post a twister map, but its not of that quality. Wes on the main page has a good explanation of how youcan have an "index" positive nao that isn't really. The fact that he even started a thread is a great sign. The last two sounding runs make much more sense with the pna becoming more positive and if today's sounding run stays the course, I won't even have to golf for it. Yea this is a textbook case of when it says positive and its not. It all depends on the block. I'm pretty sure those numbers are computed over greenland. When you have a west based block the warmest anomalies are south of green land in the davis straits while greenland region is neutral to negative this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 HPC snow discussion. Increasing probability of 4" snow. Ensembles indicate a larger evnt is possible. MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST... A LOT OF SPREAD TO CONSIDER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SNOW STORM TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM WAS RULED OUT DUE TO POOR CLUSTERING WITH OTHER GUIDANCE WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WHILE THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET AND THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS CLUSTERED FAIRLY WELL. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD IS ABOUT 4 TO 5 TIMES AS LARGE IN DIAMETER AS THE DETERMINISTIC CLUSTER...THUS SUPPORTING LOW CONFIDENCE AS A WHOLE. THE 00Z ECMWF IS EVEN CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH ITS LOW TRACK THAN ITS PRIOR RUN...SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THIS IS JUST 1 ONE OF MANY SOLUTIONS TO CONSIDER. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE MULTIPLE STREAMS COMPRISING THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN...HAVE CHOSEN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTIONS TO DERIVE THE SNOW PRO ABILITIES WHILE ADDING SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF 8 AND 12 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST COAST...WHERE THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE MOST SUPPORTIVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Thanks for your input Tony. Appreciate it! Alwyas a pleasure having our local mets chime in. Tell Mike nice job on the Long term disco today too. He must of been bored, longest "long term" i've read in a while. Lol. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Wxsim has snow arriving by 8am over by 5pm on Saturday with 4' to 5" temps in the 20's.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yea this is a textbook case of when it says positive and its not. It all depends on the block. I'm pretty sure those numbers are computed over greenland. When you have a west based block the warmest anomalies are south of green land in the davis straits while greenland region is neutral to negative this case. Yup, what do they say about a picture telling a thousand words. There have been winter storm snows in the past at Philly with positive NAO(s), its just not as common and I bet some were like this. Thank-you Allan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Wxsim has snow arriving by 8am over by 5pm on Saturday with 4' to 5" temps in the 20's.... helluva forecast range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Thanks for your input Tony. Appreciate it! Alwyas a pleasure having our local mets chime in. Tell Mike nice job on the Long term disco today too. He must of been bored, longest "long term" i've read in a while. Lol. http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off Yes I will. Youth, I would need an I V or hear the words "clear" after writing that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 here's the 0z Euro ens compared to the 12z ones. (timing is 12hr difference, due to lack of 10000's of dollars to access of ensembles. lol) The overall point it you can see how much more amp'd there are down south/west. 0z left, 12z right. Would like to see the GFS come around more amp'd to garner support for the 12z euro solution. also, NAM and SREF's came in pretty flat fwiw. The NAM nearly always follows this MO. Beyond 48 hours its miserly with pcpn and flat with the system itself, by the night run on Friday night it will have more qpf than any other model for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 finally checked out gfs, euro. looking good for some inches , not 4' as Chesco depicted . PS. Thanks mets . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 oops...more coffee please! helluva forecast range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Very good stuff on the models overnight. I'd gladly take a low to moderate ALL SNOW event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 9z srefs are wetter, now get .5 line into immediate nw burbs of phl with .25-.5 for everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 So GFS has nada, but the EURO has 6" or so if I read correctly. What's a half a foot among friends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 10:1 ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The vort on the 12z nam is digging a good bit deeper on this run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 So GFS has nada, but the EURO has 6" or so if I read correctly. What's a half a foot among friends? gfs has precip, its just its borderline for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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