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December 27/28 Storm Threat


Baroclinic Zone

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that worked out well lol

Yeah, lol...trying to keep it in perspective on how much can change with this. We used to rarely follow events that were outside of 5 days on the models. This year it seems we've been doing it from day 8 and day 9.

I understand that we are coming off a really dud winter with very few storms (even rain storms), so everyone is craving storms to follow...but its easy to set expectations way too high when you follow systems that far out.

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No Spiking!!!

I really want to snowmobile before Jan 3. We probably need close to 2 feet to make that happen...not impossible if we get a good one next week and a couple followup events. It really piles up fast up here as you know. It will also help us max out cold temps, particularly when the artic comes down in a couple weeks. I hope you have been reading Don S in the main thread.

I stick my head in there on occasion and read Don and Wes, They are already riding up here after this week, Grooming from Jackman to the County

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Right.

...The flip side being if he's right by even the slightest of chances, he will go from zero to hero in 2 seconds flat.

Amateur version of JB...keep calling for the big event and eventually you'll be right after 10 busts.

On the flip side, we have some posters too who will downplay every event as well...even when it shouldn't be.

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Yeah, lol...trying to keep it in perspective on how much can change with this. We used to rarely follow events that were outside of 5 days on the models. This year it seems we've been doing it from day 8 and day 9.

I understand that we are coming off a really dud winter with very few storms (even rain storms), so everyone is craving storms to follow...but its easy to set expectations way too high when you follow systems that far out.

this winter has been a dud so far for some of us. I have 0.3" so far this month lol.

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yep garbage pattern. We might be able to somewhat save December in the last 10 days though.

I hope so man because this was a downright failure for a -AO and subtle SE ridge. In any other December, this should have delivered a gradient pattern to you guys. Failure!

This will be one of the warmest Decembers ever and the scary part is: it will be one of the most -AO Decembers ever.

Something is wrong here.

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I hope so man because this was a downright failure for a -AO and subtle SE ridge. In any other December, this should have delivered a gradient pattern to you guys. Failure!

This will be one of the warmest Decembers ever and the scary part is: it will be one of the most -AO Decembers ever.

Something is wrong here.

PAC jet

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I hope so man because this was a downright failure for a -AO and subtle SE ridge. In any other December, this should have delivered a gradient pattern to you guys. Failure!

This will be one of the warmest Decembers ever and the scary part is: it will be one of the most -AO Decembers ever.

Something is wrong here.

is this going to change?

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PAC jet

Well I meant, something is wrong with how we calculate our teleconnections. I have said it before, but I don't like the way the CPC calculates this stuff and I think the loading patterns should use zonal winds.

Why is the AO so negative with a giant PV sitting near the North Pole?

http://www.meteo.psu...0/5dayloop.html

Edit: And with a raging Pacific jet, the westerlies are obviously strong, right? Isn't this something we should expect with a +AO?

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I hope so man because this was a downright failure for a -AO and subtle SE ridge. In any other December, this should have delivered a gradient pattern to you guys. Failure!

This will be one of the warmest Decembers ever and the scary part is: it will be one of the most -AO Decembers ever.

Something is wrong here.

GW? And not the bridge
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Well I meant, something is wrong with how we calculate our teleconnections. I have said it before, but I don't like the way the CPC calculates this stuff and I think the loading patterns should use zonal winds.

Why is the AO so negative with a giant PV sitting near the North Pole?

http://www.meteo.psu...0/5dayloop.html

Edit: And with a raging Pacific jet, the westerlies are obviously strong, right? Isn't this something we should expect with a +AO?

Yes, thanks for saying this. I mentioned several times that you have to look at the pattern and the H5 anomalies, not just the index text values.

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is this going to change?

The Aleutian Low, Split Flow, +PNA is a real possibility developing by 1/4. Certainly you know about all the potentials from now until then. It could lead to something widespread after 1/4, if it materializes.

Gee we would have ACTUAL Arctic Air. I don't give a crap about an AO number if it doesn't represent the actual pattern. Record warmth in December and a fast Pacific Jet are not products of a -AO hemispheric circulation.

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The Aleutian Low, Split Flow, +PNA is a real possibility developing by 1/4. Certainly you know about all the potentials from now until then. It could lead to something widespread after 1/4, if it materializes.

Gee we would have ACTUAL Arctic Air. I don't give a crap about an AO number if it doesn't represent the actual pattern. Record warmth in December and a fast Pacific Jet are not products of a -AO hemispheric circulation.

Someone tell Sultan this.

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Another great example of a funrace during a very -AO month was January 1953. The common theme seems to be cross polar flow is cut off and we have a very -PNA to go with it.

Months like this aren't that common since the regions we want high heights in make up a chunk of the AO domian...but you can find them searching through the tables.

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The good thing is at least we have a stormy pattern. We just need the storm track to shift in our favor when there is cold air in place.. I'll take my chances with a "warm" and stormy pattern over a "warm" and dry pattern. The early returns so far haven't been good at all. I think the next 2 weeks tells the tale for the winter.

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Dec 2001 and Dec 1996 were big torches with a pretty solidly -AO. Dec 1952 as well.

December 2001 had a stratospheric warming (and another in February) and kind of similar to this year. In fact, it was a stratospheric analog but the active sun put it on the bottom of the list. The active sun created the segregated warmings and late second one, so it cannot be used this year.

But anyway, 1952, 1996 and 2001 all have 1 thing in common: a giant low anomaly in the GOA-Alaska-BC sector. Plot 500mb zonal wind anomalies for 2009, as a good example, and then plot these 3 years. If zonal winds were incorporated into the calculations, it would reduce these fraudulent years' number somewhat.

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Another great example of a funrace during a very -AO month was January 1953. The common theme seems to be cross polar flow is cut off and we have a very -PNA to go with it.

Months like this aren't that common since the regions we want high heights in make up a chunk of the AO domian...but you can find them searching through the tables.

I think HM brings up a good point on how it's calculated. Why aren't there strong positive anomalies over the Pole if the AO is this negative?

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The Aleutian Low, Split Flow, +PNA is a real possibility developing by 1/4. Certainly you know about all the potentials from now until then. It could lead to something widespread after 1/4, if it materializes.

Gee we would have ACTUAL Arctic Air. I don't give a crap about an AO number if it doesn't represent the actual pattern. Record warmth in December and a fast Pacific Jet are not products of a -AO hemispheric circulation.

any general feelings on the dec. 27th threat?

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I think HM brings up a good point on how it's calculated. Why aren't there strong positive anomalies over the Pole if the AO is this negative?

Well a lot of spots near the pole have positive anomalies.

Looks where the negative ones have been...worst possible spot for the CONUS. Luckily, it looks like that is going to end.

compday1922501752535584.gif

As a result, they are getting the brutal cold in Asia/Northern Europe while we have baked...the one plus is we've kept Canada pretty cold. I think that should be good going forward when we finally rebuild the heights near AK.

compday1922501752535584.gif

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The AO is all about the entire northern hemisphere basically from 20°N up and is calculated using 1000mb anomalies. So if my Hadley Cell is more poleward, the NH is warmer and anomalies for warmth develop close to the Arctic Circle, now suddenly I have a -AO? This is not how it should work. The cold anomalies so far are basically 60°N and up from Scand-Siberia and again in Alaska.

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any general feelings on the dec. 27th threat?

It is looking good for a heavy, wet snow in the elevations / interior Northeast while a changeover/mostly rain scenario is most favored ATTM for coastal southern New England into the Mid Atlantic. We just don't have a sufficient cold air source for the coastal plain and the bootleg blocking has to position absolutely perfect to allow the CAA to be sufficient. Given the Pacific Jet / setup, I'm just not feeling that potential. There is no way someone can look at the pattern and say, "it must snow in the I-95 corridor" because of whatever...if it is a pure snowstorm there, it is because of absolute lucky timing of features.

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It is looking good for a heavy, wet snow in the elevations / interior Northeast while a changeover/mostly rain scenario is most favored ATTM for coastal southern New England into the Mid Atlantic. We just don't have a sufficient cold air source for the coastal plain and the bootleg blocking has to position absolutely perfect to allow the CAA to be sufficient. Given the Pacific Jet / setup, I'm just not feeling that potential. There is no way someone can look at the pattern and say, "it must snow in the I-95 corridor" because of whatever...if it is a pure snowstorm there, it is because of absolute lucky timing of features.

Agree....just have to hope for a decent front end dump.

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