burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Well 6z squashed the heck out of our southern energy and just had it dry for us next week basically. What a difference a day of runs make. On a good note the 6z NAM looks very close to something big @84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 You are correct sir. As you can see at at 114, it never makes the turn and heads OTS... Well 6z squashed the heck out of our southern energy and just had it dry for us next week basically. What a difference a day of runs make. On a good note the 6z NAM looks very close to something big @84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The 0z Euro is crazy, day 5 it has a 4 contour cutoff just west of TN and a closed low over west Tx and another cut-off coming into northern Cali. The concerning issue is how much warmer the models are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 models will have hard time until gets closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 What I can tell from Frank Strait , he thinks the precip gets as far north as maybe North Va on Thursday even though the gfs shows va nc line. He said he isn't to believe the gfs. he thinks the moisture comes more north and east than its showing, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 If the SE ridge weren't there, this would be a slam dunk. But it's there, it's been modeled to be there for a few days now, and failure of any wave swinging out of its positive tilt is a direct effect from this. The s/w in the STJ must be much stronger to counteract this feature.. or all of the models are wrong with regard to the strength of the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 models will have hard time until gets closer Agree, but you can't deny that they are all starting to show some agreement. Positive tilt, shearing out, losing the 1030 plus HP to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Agree, but you can't deny that they are all starting to show some agreement. Positive tilt, shearing out, losing the 1030 plus HP to the north. Yes, that has been the most consistent solution, even though I don't think any of us want that. It would be nice to see the 12z runs come back to yesterday's general idea, though I don't think that is likely. There is a LOT in the flow though so anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Past few runs of the CFS have really backed off on a cold January...the anomalies still show cooler than normal for January though.... Anomalies...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20121230.201301.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 It has backed off of the extreme cold that was painted but I sure could deal with what it is showing. Looks normal to slightly below ... Past few runs of the CFS have really backed off on a cold January...the anomalies still show cooler than normal for January though.... Anomalies...http://www.cpc.ncep....1230.201301.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 If the SE ridge weren't there, this would be a slam dunk. But it's there, it's been modeled to be there for a few days now, and failure of any wave swinging out of its positive tilt is a direct effect from this. The s/w in the STJ must be much stronger to counteract this feature.. or all of the models are wrong with regard to the strength of the SE ridge. Several 6z GFS members had more precip and definitely a CAD signature, not sure I am really hoping for an ice storm though. But yes, let's hope the SE ridge is being overplayed...by every model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 It has backed off of the extreme cold that was painted but I sure could deal with what it is showing. Looks normal to slightly below ... When looking at the CFS weeklies it loos like it has Jan 5-9 very cold from the NE down to NC and than Jan 7-13 cool in the SE, which leads to thinking about Jan 10th as a turning point to warm. Than weeks 3 and 4 are warm. It does keep the SE wet the entire run, so it looks like atleast this will improve our drought conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Several 6z GFS members had more precip and definitely a CAD signature, not sure I am really hoping for an ice storm though. But yes, let's hope the SE ridge is being overplayed...by every model. I was about to post the same thing when I just looked at the 6z ensembles. A lot more moisture showing up on the ensembles further north. I think we are just at the period where the models often "lose" the storm only to bring it back in a similar fashion. I'm more worried that the precip will be here but the temps may not cool enough. Although, at this point I will take a good moderate sleet, frz rain event as long as the power stays on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 HAH! That's why we need to cash in this week with something, anything frozen :-) Yep, this is probably one of the best shots we will have this winter. I would hate to see it go to waste. The energy diving down just off the coast of California needs to be stronger to survive the meat grinder and the SE ridge needs to move on out quicker than modeled. The high is not all that strong and I can see the moisture being farther north than currently shown. Question is......will it be cold enough now that the models have backed off of the cold great-lakes high that was forecasted a couple of days ago. A lot of things need to fall in place. Stay positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Yep, this is probably one of the best shots we will have this winter. I would hate to see it go to waste. The energy diving down just off the coast of California needs to be stronger to survive the meat grinder and the SE ridge needs to move on out quicker than modeled. The high is not all that strong and I can see the moisture being farther north than currently shown. Question is......will it be cold enough now that the models have backed off of the cold great-lakes high that was forecasted a couple of days ago. A lot of things need to fall in place. Stay positive. It's only out to 66 but this run might be better. Looks like that energy off the west coast is a little stronger and of course it's always pointless to guess but there may be more separation with the northern stream on this run. Like Andy said though you might as well be throwing darts at a dart board with random outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 This run "should" look a lot better. Out west our energy is holding together better than the 00z run had it. Also the energy up north appears to be weaker and more separation with the streams. We'll see where it goes, still time for the energy in the west to get torn to shreds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 This run sucks, we need that vort over MN to be over CO at hour 84 or earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 It has backed off of the extreme cold that was painted but I sure could deal with what it is showing. Looks normal to slightly below ... I for one dont want extreme cold. Equals cold and dry. We don't have to be real cold to get snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 This run sucks, we need that vort over MN to be over CO at hour 84 or earlier. I was hoping that vort out west in Mexico could hold together but @93 it's loosing steam fast. There is some weak energy in CO heading south @96 perhaps there are still some fun and games left, but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 This run basically has no moisture making it past Fl. Then it has a ULL in extreme sw TX @114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I was hoping that vort out west in Mexico could hold together but @93 it's loosing steam fast. There is some weak energy in CO heading south @96 perhaps there are still some fun and games left, but I doubt it. It's just going to be a cold front, bummer, the fact the models are going in the wrong direction isn't good, about time to put a nail in the coffin if the 12z Euro doesn't show some improvement, really any improvement, this GFS run was awful. I know we still have 4 days left but the changes we need to occur are happening at day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The 12z GFS and 0z Euro are very similar with the location of northern vort and southern low on day 4, except the Euro has both much stronger, neither model gives us what we want so it's not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 GFS gives snow to Mexico around the Big Bend area....probably like 4 - 8 inches. Gotta love the GFS. Takes our chances away and gives it to Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Sorry Charlotte. That is a rain sounding, even at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Past few runs of the CFS have really backed off on a cold January...the anomalies still show cooler than normal for January though.... Anomalies...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20121230.201301.gif I continue to watch Alaska. If it gets warmer than normal there, that is a better sign for us. In late November, the CFS2 was projecting a cold December in Alaska which correlates pretty well to warmth over the SE. The fact it, and most models, are now projecting relative warmth there seems to hint that the end of the month could get cold here or return to normal. Biggest problem is "wasting" a neg NAO if you can call it that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 12z GFS squashes everything there has to do with the Jan 3/4 storm but beyond that the pattern still looks favorable with Aleutian low, big block over Greenland, and the death of the SE Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Agree, but you can't deny that they are all starting to show some agreement. Positive tilt, shearing out, losing the 1030 plus HP to the north. True but models have not been consistent in three years. So i dont put faith in any especially the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I continue to watch Alaska. If it gets warmer than normal there, that is a better sign for us. In late November, the CFS2 was projecting a cold December in Alaska which correlates pretty well to warmth over the SE. The fact it, and most models, are now projecting relative warmth there seems to hint that the end of the month could get cold here or return to normal. Biggest problem is "wasting" a neg NAO if you can call it that. Check out Fairbanks' departures for December - unreal. That, according to the models, is about to change. That should at least give us a chance as Wow was alluding to. However, it has been my experience that when Alaska has extreme cold it is pretty much the opposite here in TN. So, getting that anomaly out of the way is at least a step. By no means is it a guarantee it gets colder...but like I said, it's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Anyone got the Canadian for 12z today. waiting on Allan site t update. Canadian was a huge hit at 12 z yesterday (snow) in NC and 0z last night still put down snow in NC, not as amped as Sat 12z. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Canadian doesn’t have a storm. However, FWIW, the 12z Ukmet holds the northern stream energy back and allows it to phase with the southern stream which winds up sending a low pressure through the ohio valley on day 6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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