packbacker Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Uggghhhh...It's like hitting brick wall to get over to 8-1-2.... Euro... GEFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 neutral PNA, -NAO, -AO would produce a decent pattern for us...depending on how strongly negative those features are, it might just overwhelm the neutral PNA and get rid of that pesky pacific that many believe has been getting in our way so far....so neutral is good, IMO, anything other than +PNA. If this works out there would be no SE ridge but a nice trough conducive of storms. This was my understanding as well, if we truely have a +PNA (or neutralish) and a -NAO, it would bring the west coast ridge closer to the west coast - inland and the trough to the east. The trough would push the SE ridge either down or east and out of the way making the storm track just where it needs to be for us. The +PNA/-NAO seems to be the key pattern for us, or an acceptable neutral blend of the two; one real strong negative, the other neutral, etc. But yes, I think a -PNA thus a big SE ridge/warm could crush all our late January weenie dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I've been predicting an above normal January for KATL since I analyzed the Jan.'s following the 14 warm Decembers because almost all of the non-El Nino Jan.'s verified to be above normal (2+) and several were even well above normal (5+). I'd say that forecast is looking real good right now. My confidence is now up to about 80-90%. Why? For the period 1/1-1/21, incorporating actual MTD as well as the 15 day forecast, KATL should be in the general vicinity of a cumulative 135 degrees above normal. That would mean that assuming a pretty accurate 15 day forecast, the last 10 days of Jan. would need to average a whopping ~7 degrees below normal just to get January down to near 2 degrees above normal for the entire month. Even if we finally get some decent winter wx then, January would still likely verify warmer than two above normal since 1/1-21 will very likely be so much warmer than normal as a whole. James Spann is saying a major cool down is possible around Tues of next week with highs in the 40s and possibly some ice in parts of the south. You don't agree with this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 James Spann is saying a major cool down is possible around Tues of next week with highs in the 40s and possibly some ice in parts of the south. You don't agree with this ? Googled him....he did mention ice, next Tuesday the 15th it's probably 25F colder in Alabama than in central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 James Spann is saying a major cool down is possible around Tues of next week with highs in the 40s and possibly some ice in parts of the south. You don't agree with this ? No ice anywhere close. I'm looking for highs near 62 and lows near 50 in our general vicinity (~13 above normal) on 1/15. Of course, this is eight days out and is subject to change quite a bit. (warmer or cooler). Regardless, there's no reason to suspect anything close to a sig. wintry threat around midmonth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 James Spann is saying a major cool down is possible around Tues of next week with highs in the 40s and possibly some ice in parts of the south. You don't agree with this ? That is incorrect actually. He said for the period of 1/16-1/17. See his comments below. "The 06Z GFS shows some rain in the cold air by Wednesday January 16, maybe even with some ice potential just north of here, and even colder air to follow around January 17-19. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details and graphics." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 That is incorrect actually. He said for the period of 1/16-1/17. See his comments below. "The 06Z GFS shows some rain in the cold air by Wednesday January 16, maybe even with some ice potential just north of here, and even colder air to follow around January 17-19. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details and graphics." Yeah, you're right. He did say possible ice on the 16th, but also said highs in the 40s is possible on the 15th which would be a major cooldown. Also, highs in the 50s on Monday which would get us closer to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 when the se ridge is strong,the arctic fronts alot of times drop down and hit the ridge and orient themselves from sw to ne.and Ark. and W Tenn.,and N MS,and N AL can be supercold (highs in 20s) and rest of the se is way above normal.looks like what might set up next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Yeah, you're right. He did say possible ice on the 16th, but also said highs in the 40s is possible on the 15th which would be a major cooldown. Also, highs in the 50s on Monday which would get us closer to normal. Well we would wait longer than Alabama since they are closer to the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 12z GFS OP run say's what blocking...I am sure the Ens will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Well we would wait longer than Alabama since they are closer to the cold air. Yeah, and in my case, 15 miles closer to the cold air since i'm right on the AL border ! I don't think i'd have to wait much longer than them. Unless the cold literally hits a brick wall at the GA/AL border, which I suppose is possible.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The GFS ENS Mean looks colder than the GFS run. Also has a better look for blocking. It's model madness right now. Right now we'll have to rely on teleconnection indices and just be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The GFS ENS Mean looks colder than the GFS run. Also has a better look for blocking. It's model madness right now. Right now we'll have to rely on teleconnection indices and just be patient. The MJO looks like a sprial into the circle of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Yeah, and in my case, 15 miles closer to the cold air since i'm right on the AL border ! I don't think i'd have to wait much longer than them. Unless the cold literally hits a brick wall at the GA/AL border, which I suppose is possible.... ONe of my all time favorite weather events (that I was not a part of, in any way) was a weeks long ice storm, sleet storm fron N W Ala. back through Ark and into Texas. The cold air banked up against the southern end of the Apps, lined up along that axis, and never made it across. Those folks got sleet storms, or zr everyday, or every other, and I got squat and 50's in Atl. Believe me it's possible. Just another one of the ways Mother Nature likes to torture me, and she has tried thousands of ways. Get a good south east ridge, and the rest of the country could be in 10 feet of snow while we wander around stunned in shorts. Notice anything regular about the maps for weeks and weeks now? Beside the not much cold? SE ridge. That's ma nature working you. Look at the snow maps..it's close across the country, but so far away. That's ma natures pig ridge sticking it to ya, lol. And don't worry...come summer it will still be there. Instead of highs in the upper 80's, we'll get upper nineties. Ma nature loves the south, she gives us the ridge whenever she can. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2013 Author Share Posted January 7, 2013 The MJO looks like a sprial into the circle of death. I *think* the models have had a tendency to kill it too quickly, but I might not be remembering that accurately. Somebody correct me, if that hasn't been the case so far this year. Either way, not one thing looks good right now with the exception of the fact that the SSW is not 10 days out....it appears to be underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I also agree that I see absolutely no reason to get excited at this point. In fact, I'm discouraged. The trends in the MJO are not good, and so we'll have to wait and see on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The MJO looks like a sprial into the circle of death. IIRC we were at around the same spot with the MJO last year were we not? Just can't seem to catch any breaks even when there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Bet the streak ....... The MJO looks like a sprial into the circle of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Euro is not looking good in the LR...well unless you prefer temps in the 50's to 60's in most of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Euro is not looking good in the LR...well unless you prefer temps in the 50's to 60's in most of the SE. I honestly believe we're seeing the models catching up to what is happening with the MJO cycle - not saying that is the only thing going on, but I think it's a big factor, and I think the much ballyhooed pattern change was all for naught most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I also agree that I see absolutely no reason to get excited at this point. In fact, I'm discouraged. The trends in the MJO are not good, and so we'll have to wait and see on that one. No reason? Here's donsutherland's post from the main board... "Some morning thoughts... 1. A renewed period of blocking (AO-) appears increasingly likely. Blocking analogs cited in #6 and the larger pool in #25 indicated a high probability that the January AO would average < 0. The main winter blocking analogs I cited were 1966-67, 1981-82, 2002-03, 2009-10. There has been a stratospheric warming event. Sometimes those events reflect a bottom-up response to a blocking regime (one just ended) and sometimes they reflect a top-down situation that would lead to renewed blocking. The stratospheric warming has gone down to about 10 mb. Personally, I'd like to see it propagate further down beyond 30 mb as happened during the 2009-10 winter. The GFS ensembles are in good agreement about the AO's going negative, possibly even tanking down the road. 2. There is good consensus on the ensembles that the EPO will go negative. 3. We are now in the transition to a period of moderation. Temperatures will likely peak in the East on Sunday-Tuesday (1/13-15). As noted previously, this is a temporary period of warmth. It is not the end of winter so to speak. Around 1/20 +/- a few days, the changes in the AO and EPO should produce a colder pattern and that pattern is likely to be of longer duration and greater magnitude than the one that is ending. The Plains States will likely see the cold occur first and they could also experience the largest cold anomalies." Last year don was all over the patterns. Even when everyone thought cold was coming, no dice....he was right. And he would post his verification score from time to time which really rubbed salt in the wound, but I'm not bitter. If he's calling for cold toward the end of the month I'm listening pretty closely. Potential -AO, -EPO, Strat warming underway. I think we have a few nuggets for optimism. Who's to say the MJO doesn't trend better in the next few weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 No reason? Here's donsutherland's post from the main board... "Some morning thoughts... 1. A renewed period of blocking (AO-) appears increasingly likely. Blocking analogs cited in #6 and the larger pool in #25 indicated a high probability that the January AO would average < 0. The main winter blocking analogs I cited were 1966-67, 1981-82, 2002-03, 2009-10. There has been a stratospheric warming event. Sometimes those events reflect a bottom-up response to a blocking regime (one just ended) and sometimes they reflect a top-down situation that would lead to renewed blocking. The stratospheric warming has gone down to about 10 mb. Personally, I'd like to see it propagate further down beyond 30 mb as happened during the 2009-10 winter. The GFS ensembles are in good agreement about the AO's going negative, possibly even tanking down the road. 2. There is good consensus on the ensembles that the EPO will go negative. 3. We are now in the transition to a period of moderation. Temperatures will likely peak in the East on Sunday-Tuesday (1/13-15). As noted previously, this is a temporary period of warmth. It is not the end of winter so to speak. Around 1/20 +/- a few days, the changes in the AO and EPO should produce a colder pattern and that pattern is likely to be of longer duration and greater magnitude than the one that is ending. The Plains States will likely see the cold occur first and they could also experience the largest cold anomalies." Last year don was all over the patterns. Even when everyone thought cold was coming, no dice....he was right. And he would post his verification score from time to time which really rubbed salt in the wound, but I'm not bitter. If he's calling for cold toward the end of the month I'm listening pretty closely. Potential -AO, -EPO, Strat warming underway. I think we have a few nuggets for optimism. Who's to say the MJO doesn't trend better in the next few weeks? No reason, indeed. We had a negative AO for two months now, and where's our winter weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Yeah, Euro is ugly. All that nice blocking it has been showing in the Day 9-10 range is gone and even the -AO is fading. Little ridge popping up off west coast, but probably too far west. Delay, delay, delay on the cold -- bet the streak. No reason, indeed. We had a negative AO for two months now, and where's our winter weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 No reason, indeed. We had a negative AO for two months now, and where's our winter weather? That's true. But I think most of the time the EPO has been positive, which has caused the cold to stay bottled up in Alaska. I could be wrong on that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Seriously, we have been hearing since the beginning of December about how things are looking up for this winter and things are good, but nothing to show for it. It's really hard to see how someone could be optimistic about the end of the month when it's so far away. Maybe the end of the month will be good. But right now it's more grasping at straws than being optimistic and if it does turn out to be good, it's more luck than anything. If you keep saying it looks good then you're bound to get it right sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Euro is not looking good in the LR...well unless you prefer temps in the 50's to 60's in most of the SE. While I certainly would prefer snow, when temps go above 60 in Jan. I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 bet the streak. Never bet against Don Sutherland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 That's true. But I think most of the time the EPO has been positive, which has caused the cold to stay bottled up in Alaska. I could be wrong on that though. The cold has stayed bottled up north because we have very rarely had any sort of western U.S. ridging. I think some times we all (myself included) get too consumed in looking at all of the teleconnection indices. The MJO phase would have a real impact on the pattern if it were to progress into the favorable phases, but if it dies out then it loses it's impact. Then we're back to the same drivers of the pattern we've been having, so what would logically cause us to get a different result? A negative AO alone won't do it, so unless we can get a good, west-based neg. NAO and some ridging out west, we're probably going to be stuck with what we've seen. Furthermore, we continue to see cooling in the ENSO region, so that doesn't bode well for February either. I'm just having a hard time finding a lot to be positive about in regards to a sustained cold pattern this winter. That's not to say a perfect-timing situation can't develop and still give some of us a great winter storm, because that is always a possibility. I'm just saying that a prolonged cold, winter weather pattern is looking less and less likely for the foreseeable future (and the winter clock is already ticking away on us). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Post from HM (Met Poster) on the MJO - "Well, I will look more into things later today and get back to you but I think we do orbit around phase 8-1-2 after the looping is over. Even if it is less amplified, I do think a legitimate pulse goes through there and affects the pattern. The orbiting phase 6-7 convection and Mid Latitude pattern will ultimately force the convection east and then that will begin to feedback on the pattern as it relaxes from its amplified state. A classic +PNA / -NAO pattern would then be able to setup, esp. if the vortex breaks down entirely." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 There's going to be a lot of cliff diving going on during the next 10 days. I'm fairly confident we'll see a return to a prolonged period of winter temps later this month into Feb....now whether or not we can get a storm is another question. Getting to that point is going to be hard to swallow with winter lovers between now and then and there will be numerous posts stating such. I fully trust Don S who mainly posts on the main board. Please read his posts...they are informing! In the meantime, I plan to enjoy the warmer weather because I know it's not going last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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