Lets Talk January...Pretty Please?

[HM]

uh oh..HM last week you said 2nd week in January, now late January early Feb?..I'm starting to get this 96-97 winter feeling..except this December has been much warmer..neutral winters after La Nina's are not good

Do you know how to read? In the very post you quoted, I told you things sped up from what I originally thought. The mid-January PV breakdown doesn't mean we go diving into a cold pattern, either. That would ultimately have an effect late in the month into February anyway.

I can't help someone who wants to continue to perpetuate this myth that a "pattern change" continues to get "pushed back." If you want to piss me off, keep it up. Go read a JB tweet for us.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Appreciate your thoughts HM on the 1/5 to 1/10 period. (you answered me last night)

[KEITH L.I]

Do you know how to read? In the very post you quoted, I told you things sped up from what I originally thought. The mid-January PV breakdown doesn't mean we go diving into a cold pattern, either. That would ultimately have an effect late in the month into February anyway.

I can't help someone who wants to continue to perpetuate this myth that a "pattern change" continues to get "pushed back." If you want to piss me off, keep it up. Go read a JB tweet for us.

wooo..sorry..I think your one of the best here..just asking a question,no way doubting your knowledge..it's cool..hey it's only weather..happy holidays

[HM]

wooo..sorry..I think your one of the best here..just asking a question,no way doubting your knowledge..it's cool..hey it's only weather..happy holidays

I don't like being misquoted and I don't like being lumped into some myth that isn't reality. If you respect me, then I would appreciate it if you would get the facts straight first before replying.

The idea of a La Niña-like finish to December transitioning into a cold period for January seems fine to me and I see no signs of that changing today.

[FEFD17]

HM,

PLEASE,please please do not take this wrong. I too to say this pattern has been the same as last year. To say anything is going to change is like watching storms on the models for 10+ days only to have them not show up, go rain or be some storm that ends as flurries is really pissing US off too. I myself-- I will not speak for anyone else here- am damn tired of hearing its going to be better, last month this month or any month we have yet to get into. I am not saying you are not extremely talented in your LR pattern findings and reports. I do not expect a light switch change to winter. I myself though do see any talk of a pattern change at this point misleading. We always hear what is going to change in 2-3-4+ weeks, only to have some reason it's delayed or incorrect. Last winter and the beginning of this winter are damn near the same in regard to lack of frozen ground( frost/ hard freeze ect ) and the amount of rain that we have had vs snow. The whole damn thing has been like a carrot tied to the end of a stick. I am not trying to piss you or anyone off, and I along with a lot of others respect your abilities. This whole winter/pattern change thing is like hearing the check is in the mail.

[nzucker]

HM,

PLEASE,please please do not take this wrong. I too to say this pattern has been the same as last year. To say anything is going to change is like watching storms on the models for 10+ days only to have them not show up, go rain or be some storm that ends as flurries is really pissing US off too. I myself-- I will not speak for anyone else here- am damn tired of hearing its going to be better, last month this month or any month we have yet to get into. I am not saying you are not extremely talented in your LR pattern findings and reports. I do not expect a light switch change to winter. I myself though do see any talk of a pattern change at this point misleading. We always hear what is going to change in 2-3-4+ weeks, only to have some reason it's delayed or incorrect. Last winter and the beginning of this winter are damn near the same in regard to lack of frozen ground( frost/ hard freeze ect ) and the amount of rain that we have had vs snow. The whole damn thing has been like a carrot tied to the end of a stick. I am not trying to piss you or anyone off, and I along with a lot of others respect your abilities. This whole winter/pattern change thing is like hearing the check is in the mail.

I think we have started a step-down to a more wintry pattern. Your area will likely score a significant snowfall from the 27th system, and the 12z ECM and 12z GFS show the first arctic blast with 850s nearing -20C around the New Year. That's better than the rest of the month. Down here, yesterday was the first day that Central Park stayed in the 30s in December. Entirely ridiculous, but better than the rest of the month. My area is supposed to get light snow from the XMAS storm and then a 1-3" front end dump for the 27th storm. Entirely ridiculous considering how much better the progs were, but better than the rest of the month.

In addition, early January looks like the real deal with a PNA/EPO ridge and several systems entering the Southwest. Definitely think that Jan 1-15 is a fruitful time on the coastal plain after the interior cleans up with the 12/27 and perhaps 12/29 storms.

[HM]

HM,

PLEASE,please please do not take this wrong. I too to say this pattern has been the same as last year. To say anything is going to change is like watching storms on the models for 10+ days only to have them not show up, go rain or be some storm that ends as flurries is really pissing US off too. I myself-- I will not speak for anyone else here- am damn tired of hearing its going to be better, last month this month or any month we have yet to get into. I am not saying you are not extremely talented in your LR pattern findings and reports. I do not expect a light switch change to winter. I myself though do see any talk of a pattern change at this point misleading. We always hear what is going to change in 2-3-4+ weeks, only to have some reason it's delayed or incorrect. Last winter and the beginning of this winter are damn near the same in regard to lack of frozen ground( frost/ hard freeze ect ) and the amount of rain that we have had vs snow. The whole damn thing has been like a carrot tied to the end of a stick. I am not trying to piss you or anyone off, and I along with a lot of others respect your abilities. This whole winter/pattern change thing is like hearing the check is in the mail.

You are not going to bait me into some snow fetish, irrational perspective debate on pattern changes just to suit your desire for snowfall. I don't know what more you want from me and others on this forum who have responsibly portrayed future patterns, for free, on here. Is it fair to us that you listen to jerk offs like JB etc. and think day 10+ fantasy storms are coming; but when they don't, you come here and post this nonsense to us?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

One of the problems with wild speculation is that it casts a wide net. FEF's post shows that. Most of the red taggers have been very cautious with their words and timetables.

The models keep trying to show deep penetration of the cold air in the 10 day range. There's a reason for that and eventually it'll happen.

EDITING: HM's response is on target. This is the problem with all the speculation that goes on here unchecked. People project what is said onto the red taggers thoughts and then blame them when they don't get the results.

It's 12/23!!! Some are talking as if it's 2/23 and we've been waiting on pattern changes. These types of changes are always delayed it seems.

[nzucker]

You are not going to bate me into some snow fetish, irrational perspective debate on pattern changes just to suit your desire for snowfall. I don't know what more you want from me and others on this forum who have responsibly portrayed future patterns, for free, on here. Is it fair to us that you listen to jerk offs like JB etc. and think day 10+ fantasy storms are coming; but when they don't, you come here and post this nonsense to us?

I do partially agree with him...some mets have been too aggressive on the pattern change, and the models have certainly taken away a lot of what they gave in the medium range. Two days ago, I was looking at 3-6" for the XMAS storm and 8-12" for the 27th system with brutally cold air coming in behind that. Now I'm looking at a dusting-inch for the XMAS storm, mostly rain after front-end slop for the 27th system, and then highs in the mid 30s following that with perhaps another cutter before the real cold gets in.

I'm frustrated too...frustrated that we could have this awesome November with -4 departure and two snow events, but then completely lose the pattern when it mattered in December. Frustrated that this is the second year of non-winter conditions...Central Park has a minimum of 29F for the month, for god's sakes. Yesterday was the first day with a high in the 30s. Frustrated that Asia always seems to get the lion's share of cold departures with the PV only occasionally visiting the North American side.

[weatherwiz]

HM,

PLEASE,please please do not take this wrong. I too to say this pattern has been the same as last year. To say anything is going to change is like watching storms on the models for 10+ days only to have them not show up, go rain or be some storm that ends as flurries is really pissing US off too. I myself-- I will not speak for anyone else here- am damn tired of hearing its going to be better, last month this month or any month we have yet to get into. I am not saying you are not extremely talented in your LR pattern findings and reports. I do not expect a light switch change to winter. I myself though do see any talk of a pattern change at this point misleading. We always hear what is going to change in 2-3-4+ weeks, only to have some reason it's delayed or incorrect. Last winter and the beginning of this winter are damn near the same in regard to lack of frozen ground( frost/ hard freeze ect ) and the amount of rain that we have had vs snow. The whole damn thing has been like a carrot tied to the end of a stick. I am not trying to piss you or anyone off, and I along with a lot of others respect your abilities. This whole winter/pattern change thing is like hearing the check is in the mail.

The pattern is NOT the same as last year...not even remotely close.

If you're one of those that look at storms on the models 10+ days out and get excited and get let down...that's you're own fault.

We have seen a pattern change occur too...just b/c we haven't seen snowstorms does not mean the pattern did not change. There is more to weather patterns than just snowfall.

[HM]

I do partially agree with him...some mets have been too aggressive on the pattern change, and the models have certainly taken away a lot of what they gave in the medium range. Two days ago, I was looking at 3-6" for the XMAS storm and 8-12" for the 27th system with brutally cold air coming in behind that. Now I'm looking at a dusting-inch for the XMAS storm, mostly rain after front-end slop for the 27th system, and then highs in the mid 30s following that with perhaps another cutter before the real cold gets in.

I'm frustrated too...frustrated that we could have this awesome November with -4 departure and two snow events, but then completely lose the pattern when it mattered in December. Frustrated that this is the second year of non-winter conditions...Central Park has a minimum of 29F for the month, for god's sakes. Yesterday was the first day with a high in the 30s. Frustrated that Asia always seems to get the lion's share of cold departures with the PV only occasionally visiting the North American side.

Okay, I get it...it's frustrating. But that doesn't mean that the more responsible folks should have to deal with being lumped into the category of ignorant forecasters, like what the first poster did to me. There were several mets on this forum who warned you about this bogus blocking setup. I'm not saying I, and others on the forum, have been stellar or bad. I'm just saying that good information has been posted; and if interpreted correctly by the reader, should keep your perspective more cautious than anything else.

I think your perspective has been good and tolerant. The step down process of getting actual cold air involved is usually an anxious time.

[weatherwiz]

Okay, I get it...it's frustrating. But that doesn't mean that the more responsible folks should have to deal with being lumped into the category of ignorant forecasters, like what the first poster did to me. There were several mets on this forum who warned you about this bogus blocking setup. I'm not saying I, and others on the forum, have been stellar or bad. I'm just saying that good information has been posted; and if interpreted correctly by the reader, should keep your perspective more cautious than anything else.

I think your perspective has been good and tolerant. The step down process of getting actual cold air involved is usually an anxious time.

And this is where people need to separate emotions from intelligence.

[nzucker]

Okay, I get it...it's frustrating. But that doesn't mean that the more responsible folks should have to deal with being lumped into the category of ignorant forecasters, like what the first poster did to me. There were several mets on this forum who warned you about this bogus blocking setup. I'm not saying I, and others on the forum, have been stellar or bad. I'm just saying that good information has been posted; and if interpreted correctly by the reader, should keep your perspective more cautious than anything else.

I think your perspective has been good and tolerant. The step down process of getting actual cold air involved is usually an anxious time.

I wish we could get a real -NAO high-latitude block like Feb 2010 or Dec 2010....this bootleg block over Canada is not getting it done. It's not really ascending to the arctic latitudes, and all the cold air is being forced out of Canada because the block is so far west. Sure it will ensure that we pick up some northerly flow and cooler air, but it won't allow arctic air into the picture which is what we need to keep these lows from cutting west and torching us.

[CoastalWx]

Even HM getting some **** lol.

[Ginx snewx]

Wth happened in here. HM nuking posters right and left, absolute carnage.

[CoastalWx]

Wth happened in here. HM nuking posters right and left, absolute carnage.

Ther are posters that need to be nuked.

[DavisStraight]

Okay, I get it...it's frustrating. But that doesn't mean that the more responsible folks should have to deal with being lumped into the category of ignorant forecasters, like what the first poster did to me. There were several mets on this forum who warned you about this bogus blocking setup. I'm not saying I, and others on the forum, have been stellar or bad. I'm just saying that good information has been posted; and if interpreted correctly by the reader, should keep your perspective more cautious than anything else.

I think your perspective has been good and tolerant. The step down process of getting actual cold air involved is usually an anxious time.

You and the other mets have been fantastic, no one should be taking out their frustrations on any of the mets becasuse a model showed a blizzard 10 days out and a blizzard doesnt happen, Will always emphasizes its too far out to get to excited.

It seems like the pattern has changed to me and even if we dont get feet of snow at least we have some interesting things to track. Much better than last year.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Here's my take. we are seeing the exact same evolution again longer term. Around 10 days the models show epic cold diving deep all the way to New Orleans time and time again behind storms. As we get to 8 days we are already seeing more NW to SE blunting of the cold, by days 6 and 7 the cold is mostly confined to where it's already been north of NJ. I think we can see this again today on the models happening.

Once again last nights 10 day Euro had brutal cold air diving to the Gulf. Today the Euro backed away again from that, it's now deflecting through New England around 1/2 and I suspect we will see over the next 2-3 days a pattern around 1/2 that features the meager cold that we've had, not the -10 to -25 8h temps of some of these 10 day runs. Not long ago the Euro/GFS had brutal cold air diving down after this next one. Now..not so much. Models want to dive cold air deep behind these storms 6-10 days away only to realize as they approach that isn't going to happen. As of the 23rd run at 12z we have -16 degree air at 8h over SNE for 1/2/13 at 12z. Let's see how that fairs in the coming runs.

Barring a change I think we're looking beyond 1/8, probably 1/10ish to see any meaningful change. that's my rough opinion. Groundhog Day pattern.

[FEFD17]

HM, my intent was NOT to flame or "lump together" or anything of the sort. There is no "bait" or dragging you or any other person red tag or not into any climate/pattern battle of any sort. I will say, I am very surprised and honestly disgusted with your response. I have always honestly read your posts with interest and desire to learn. I am very disappointed with you. This has been like getting kicked in the stones by a hero.

To the other Red taggers/ mods and otherwise, I thought this was a place to discuss pattern change. I posted that it looks from at least an enthusiasts disappointment.

[mulen]

oy vay the barndoor to canada is just cracked open we've been down this road before D.T logic trend is your friend doesn't look forgiants. Eli lost his house and the team got whacked by sandy amongst other things my cousin is good friends with him.effects performance not an excuse but a diversion.

[FEFD17]

Here's my take. we are seeing the exact same evolution again longer term. Around 10 days the models show epic cold diving deep all the way to New Orleans time and time again behind storms. As we get to 8 days we are already seeing more NW to SE blunting of the cold, by days 6 and 7 the cold is mostly confined to where it's already been north of NJ. I think we can see this again today on the models happening.

Once again last nights 10 day Euro had brutal cold air diving to the Gulf. Today the Euro backed away again from that, it's now deflecting through New England around 1/2 and I suspect we will see over the next 2-3 days a pattern around 1/2 that features the meager cold that we've had, not the -10 to -25 8h temps of some of these 10 day runs. Not long ago the Euro/GFS had brutal cold air diving down after this next one. Now..not so much. Models want to dive cold air deep behind these storms 6-10 days away only to realize as they approach that isn't going to happen. As of the 23rd run at 12z we have -16 degree air at 8h over SNE for 1/2/13 at 12z. Let's see how that fairs in the coming runs.

Barring a change I think we're looking beyond 1/8, probably 1/10ish to see any meaningful change. that's my rough opinion. Groundhog Day pattern.

Exactly. THIS is what I was trying to say

[weathafella]

And this is where people need to separate emotions from intelligence.

Tell us that the next time you pimp a 40kt thunderstorm from 6 days out.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Exactly. THIS is what I was trying to say

But it's not HM that makes up the models. So criticism towards him was unwarranted. He's been one of the more level headed on this forum. Doesn't get into the family feuds, speaks volumes for his professionalism. We need more HMs.

I'm laying it out as a laymen. This is exactly what happened in last years miserable winter in December and early January. We kept having glimmers of hope out 10 days that went away at 7-8. Look at this debacle in a few days. I'd be willing to bet now the warm solutions prevail. Warm and wet, or surpressed/misses. I don't see that changing for a few weeks until we get real high pressures on the west coast/rockies...and get rid of the recurrent lows spinning off BC.

EDIT: Eventually my logic will fail on this, one of these systems is going to break cold and tip the seesaw for a few weeks. Right now I don't see that happening in the next 7-10, maybe 15 days in SNE south of the Pike. We are still alternating between real west cutters, huggers and misses.

[HM]

HM, my intent was NOT to flame or "lump together" or anything of the sort. There is no "bait" or dragging you or any other person red tag or not into any climate/pattern battle of any sort. I will say, I am very surprised and honestly disgusted with your response. I have always honestly read your posts with interest and desire to learn. I am very disappointed with you. This has been like getting kicked in the stones by a hero.

To the other Red taggers/ mods and otherwise, I thought this was a place to discuss pattern change. I posted that it looks from at least an enthusiasts disappointment.

I apologize. I went back and maybe your post was just bad timing since I was still heated from the first poster. But remember that this is about perspective and I forget that everyone on this forum hears about any forecast. In my world, I don't really hear nor care about people like JB so my perspective is very different. To me, everything is going to plan.

I was heated before and my anger really is at bad forecasters not the regular guy just looking for an accurate idea. Merry Christmas...sorry.

[weatherwiz]

Tell us that the next time you pimp a 40kt thunderstorm from 6 days out.

At least my convective threads actually verify with something...unlike 99% of the snow threads here.

[weathafella]

At least my convective threads actually verify with something...unlike 99% of the snow threads here.

Is this the new hard azz wiz? I like it!

[weatherwiz]

Is this the new hard azz wiz? I like it!

Trying out some new guns for the upcoming season

[dendrite]

EC ens are very cold as we head into January. Pretty strong d10 ridge in the west and trough axis just off the east coast. Finally some real deal cold?

[40/70 Benchmark]

HM was all over the red flags within the pattern...sure, he said that it could have worked out very snowy for NE, but also explicily stated why it could blow dead rats...which it did.

[mahk_webstah]

Is this the new hard azz wiz? I like it!

It's amazing what regular sex will do to a man's attitude...