Vendor Forecast Discussion

[am19psu]

I changed my mind after this crap earlier. Put your vendor nonsense here and leave it out of the main discussion threads.

[MGorse]

I was going to vote in the poll but then it was closed. I agree that it should be put into its own thread. I do not really like reading through a nice discussion then have to weed through the crap about JB, DT, etc in it. In its own thread, one can go there to read and post if they want to.

[phlwx]

Adam -- I think for the weenies' sake you should change the title to "JB/DT/Accu/Steve D./Rob G. Forecast thread" so they know what "vendor" means.

[ChescoWx]

How appropriate I get to post the first vendor "nonsense" this tweet from JB kind of funny in light of today's posts here is a twwet within the hour "I will not comment on other peoples forecasts,where they get them. Don't understand how if u don't know what I look at, you assume u do" "Isn't the weather hard enough to be obsessed with rather than other weather people. It's amazing today-hard enough to compete with atmosphere"

[ChescoWx]

Now onto a true weather related tweet per JB "GFS in winter will lift storm into blocks...once the actual time step comes I think you will see it will only get to a point and then reform east"

[vogelhund]

If they would like to post their own forecasts in the mid-range thread, be my guest.

But when a weenie posts their forecast, do it here.

[ChescoWx]

This is only for discussion and posts of Professional vendors....no weenie forecasts. Thanks!

If they would like to post their own forecasts in the mid-range thread, be my guest.

But when a weenie posts their forecast, do it here.

[SP]

I was going to vote in the poll but then it was closed. I agree that it should be put into its own thread. I do not really like reading through a nice discussion then have to weed through the crap about JB, DT, etc in it. In its own thread, one can go there to read and post if they want to.

Same for Draco. Lol

Shocked they did not go with Drago from rocky. I guess Draco is "scary". Seriously how do these people, including the experts desk crowd, go along with this crap? I guess in the end it's all about show biz be it web or tv.

[ChescoWx]

JB tweets from overnight "No more monster to the lakes on GFS...sends out first wave (prob too far north) then eventually has 2nd storm on east coast better pattern fit" "Point of all this is that this pattern has loads of potential. We aren't in Kansas anymore TOTO and if we were it would be darn cold"

[ChescoWx]

My summary of some thoughts from Joe D from WB this AM

The current storm in the midwest will head east and redevelop off the east coast. It will then bring heavy wet snows to higher elevations in the northeast and there will even be some snow showers and squalls right to the east coast. A weaker system will bring some snow on Christmas eve and Day for what JD calls a "last minute save" for some areas. Regarding the post Christmas event coming out of the Gulf and heading up the Appalachians. He mentions the hint or potential of some coastal plains damming of cold air but he is not sure that the push of arctic air offshore is sufficient. So in his opinion the primary versus secondary battle forecast will be a challenge.

[ChescoWx]

Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

ukmet.front runner could have sneaky pre Christmas snow south of major storm now, with 2cnd major further east 12/25-27

[RowanBrandon]

*ALEET ALEET* Update from DT

12z wed A afternoon run of the European ensemble Model is WAAAAAY EAST of the 12z operational or regular European Model ( which has the Low near Chicago).

12z ECMWF ensemble mean Has 2ndary LOW off the southeast VA coast on morning of DEC 27 with the 0 degree ISOTHERM at 850 MB (rain snow line) ROA to DCA to RDG to ABE to POU to PVD... BOS mostly snow

[ChescoWx]

JB Tweet " Sneaky mini-storm between big ones next 3 days and after could put snow down further south for Christmas eve than next 3 days"

"3 to 5 hour period 40-60mph winds with 1-2 inches of rain hits NJ into S New England coast Fri AM - Coastal flooding possible"

"ECMWF ensembles show storm jumping to the coast by Dec 27 after track of primary into Ohio Valley - Operational may be to wound up"

"UKMET/JMA first to catch on to wave on 24th-25th between big kahunas. JMA Christmas AM airing it's grievance against EC"

[ChescoWx]

To paraphrase some of JB's latest thoughts on his "Festivus Miracle"

Meaning the wave, which both the UKMET and JMA saw yesterday, but JB did not believe to be spreading some light snow south of the southern edge of his current storm forecast - this will assure areas that get more than 2 inches, a white Christmas. He will be grading his forecast from November 22 that there will be 50% snowcover on at least one of the days around Christmas Dec 23-27. He goes on to mention this wave is important because it will have a true arctic boundary which will be where the low will have to stop deepening in the OH valley and then it will indeed jump to the mid-atlantic coast

.

[ChescoWx]

_{JB was busy tweeting an uncharacteristic message of potential snow for the northeast snow weenies....(tongue firmly in cheek)}

_{"Canadian popping out the snow N of mason dixon line for possible Festivus miracle for starving NE snow geese"}

_{"taking this storm into this kind of block as some models had is like trying to run through Ray Lewis...better to go around and secondary on coast"}

_{"ECMFW looks overdone with festivus miracle. though its message is snow midwest into N mid atlantic on table for Christmas Eve"}

_{"ECMFW now up along coastal plain still looks like it feeds back too much day 7 on"}

_{"UKMET all agog about Festivus miracle"}

[tombo82685]

this is from dt on what the eurs ens would possibly show for snowfall output

[JamieOber]

That map is ****ing ridiculous.

[chubbs]

this is from dt on what the eurs ens would possibly show for snowfall output

Surprised he's so bullish for I-95. Low is in Tenn and phl is already above 0 at 850. Unless he has better output than Alan's maps which only show 24-hr increments.

[ChescoWx]

JB paraphrase from this AM

Talks about people scratching their heads and saying how can models be all over the place?? He says it's the pattern whether he's right or wrong about where this turns, not that he is trying to give a "pompous oration" as he knows "being late on this is a nasty shot to me". But the models in his opinion will get better as soon as cold overwhelms, which he assures us it will. Regarding the festivus miracle storm he indicates it is on all the models and it will only take 3 days to cross the nation arriving in time to offer snow for the areas just south of the main accumulation stream with this storm. His idea says take 195 in NJ and take the PA turnpike westbound to the midwest and chances are you will be close to the southern boundary of accumulating snow. He goes on to say "this may be more than just a pleasant coating to an inch or two as both the UKMET and ECMWF have almost a half inch of liquid over northern pa and NJ...

But think about what this is doing a) taking energy out of the western trough. streak east UNDER the backing block C) pushing the arctic boundary south so we can test the idea i have.. the primary only deepens till it finds that, then wil have to jump to the coast. Its all a test of ideas formulated not by model swings, but understanding what is going on"

He talks about how rarely if ever you see the kind of overall look we are seeing now with warm where its supposed to be cold in both the vertical and horizontal and one heck of a kelvin wave blasting east lighting a match to the whole thing.

[Heisy]

That map is ****ing ridiculous.

How so? If the EURO ENS track verifies (still could change drastically) that map looks perfect...We may see a thump of snow in the city before changeover. If you were to put out a snowmap right now that would seem pretty good. He's thinking the primary heads to the lakes and we get a redeveloper.

[Heisy]

Surprised he's so bullish for I-95. Low is in Tenn and phl is already above 0 at 850. Unless he has better output than Alan's maps which only show 24-hr increments.

You'd have to think he's also factoring in the fact that he thinks it will trend farther south. With the HP we're seeing progged there is going to be some cold air locked in the surface even if the low plows the lakes. Feb 23-24 1994. Low barreled into the Lakes, there wasn't even a redevelopment yet Philly managed close to 3-6 inches.

[NaoPos]

Lol

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

this is from dt on what the eurs ens would possibly show for snowfall output

Sorry at work and can't seem to pull up that image. What does it generally show if you don't mind?

[allman15]

That map is ****ing ridiculous.

his map is NOT OFFICIAL you morin.......wait until its official then blast him

[tombo82685]

Sorry at work and can't seem to pull up that image. What does it generally show if you don't mind?

basically from southern momouth co to del memorial bridge on north and west start the accum snows

[tombo82685]

his map is NOT OFFICIAL you morin.......wait until its official then blast him

Relax man, to each their own

[JamieOber]

his map is NOT OFFICIAL you morin.......wait until its official then blast him

You're right....I shouldn't attack one of top 75 GAY weathermen in the US..... (inside joke)

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

basically from southern momouth co to del memorial bridge on north and west start the accum snows

Thanks man.

[Bobby EPAWA]

Well since we technically fall in the "vendor" forecasts being an accredited LLC in the state of PA, here is the Eastern PA Weather Authority call that encompasses (1) the frontal passage tomorrow morning + Lake effect tomorrow. Issue yesterday morning, no change today.

[phlwx]

DT used to pillage anyone who issued a map a week out. Slophead, slopehead, and a few other colorful descriptions were thrown in, along with some unique spellings.