baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Lee low has now become mobile and is effectively undergoing baroclinic development. No longer leeside cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Might be a good snowmobile ride down I90 from La Crosse to MKe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 IMO you're too far east for the best thundersnow chances...when I said NW cwa, i meant McHenry Co out to RFD. Warm tongue and dryslot will be issues for you. I'm going to keep my fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Might be a good snowmobile ride down I90 from La Crosse to MKe... DLL, your winter sure went from zero to hero in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 DLL, your winter sure went from zero to hero in a hurry. Doubled his QPF in one run, but who knows if it was just a blip??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Ugly RGEM map through 24 hours, 991 hpa nearly on top of NAM, perhaps a tick east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Wagons north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm reading on another board that the low looks to be heading into Southern Kansas, not remaining in Oklahoma, like most of the guidance suggests. If so, this is starting off a tad north than the models have shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Wagons north. 'copter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm reading on another board that the low looks to be heading into Southern Kansas, not remaining in Oklahoma, like most of the guidance suggests. If so, this is starting off a tad north than the models have shown. The pressure low is in the OK panhandle, the wind field circulation is in KS. Overall it is where it is supposed to be based on most model progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 RGEM 987 at 36 hrs...on the other side of the Lake from Chicago. Has the intense band stretching back to RFD. 12 hour lollipop of 2.13" over MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 RGEM 987 at 36 hrs...on the other side of the Lake from Chicago. Has the intense band stretching back to RFD. 12 hour lollipop of 2.13" over MKE. p-type maps still raining in cook co i assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Being on the SE end of the gradient, these run to run shifts have me pulling my hair out! lol. I am hoping to be in or near the thundersnow jackpot zone, we will see how this thing plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Dry slot over NE/NC IL at 24 hours on the NAM, but rapidly fills in at 27 hours. Winds turn north at 33 hours along the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Patiently waiting for 12z GFS clown maps Looks to be a pretty good chunk of real estate in WI that gets dumped on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 p-type maps still raining in cook co i assume? Flips over somewhere between 6 and 7pm. LAF an hour ahead of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Patiently waiting for 12z GFS clown maps Looks to be a pretty good chunk of real estate in WI that gets dumped on... GFS isnt looking quite as juicy for us compared to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 12z GFS is coming in slightly farther S with the upper low ejection, would not be terribly surprised to see it ramp up the strength/deform band like the NAM did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Flips over somewhere between 6 and 7pm. LAF an hour ahead of that. believable given our position right in the warm tongue..just hoping for an hour or two of decent snow but it looks like the defo will blossom 30-50 miles NW. Should still see a period of wind whipped low end mod snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 believable given our position right in the warm tongue..just hoping for an hour or two of decent snow but it looks like the defo will blossom 30-50 miles NW. Should still see a period of wind whipped low end mod snow though. Verbatim it's 5 or so hours of at least mod snow for ORD. Low on the RGEM goes over Kenosha, before filling and then drifting to the ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Wow heads up Wisconsin Dells! Almost got a plane ticket and hotel room for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The Dells look to be in a great spot... i94 stretch there is going to be shut down once the winds/snow show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 12z RGEM bottoms the low out at 983 hpa: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Does the defo. band move across the lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Low passes right over my house on the NAM. Still pulling for it to cross over GYY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 GFS with a blow to ORD prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Low passes right over my house on the NAM. Still pulling for it to cross over GYY. The GFS is so warm for us. It would give 2" of snow tops, even at 00z Friday, the 850-surface 0C isotherm hasn't cleared to the shore. Many short term models are more bullish with the rain/snow line being further SE. I don't know which to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Different Bufkit snowfall techniques paint a signal for tomorrow at DPA... Cobb11 - 12" Cobb05 - 15" 10:1 Ratio - 8" Max Temp - 10" with 1-2 inches an hour between 8pm and midnight tomorrow. Even ORD gets hit hard with 7-10 per Bufkit output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The GFS is so warm for us. It would give 2" of snow tops, even at 00z Friday, the 850-surface 0C isotherm hasn't cleared to the shore. Many short term models are more bullish with the rain/snow line being further SE. I don't know which to believe. Higher res/short term models are probably the key to picking out the fine details now. We're under 24 hours from the start now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I see La Crosse has this up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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