Hoosier Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Figured it was time to start a thread for this event. Goes without saying that being 5 days out we have to be careful to not get too wrapped up in any one solution, and there's a non-trivial chance that this ends up being a relatively non-exciting event for much of the subforum. That being said, the latest solutions are downright impressive with a surface low rapidly deepening in the Lakes late next week. The overall setup and a quick look at GFS wind progs/momentum transfer would support potential blizzard conditions on the backside should the deeper solutions come to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Euro looks close to the same so far through 90hr. Maybe a bit faster. 1000mb sfc low in central/southeast CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Hopeful for a region wide Christmas gift. Cheering for YYZ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 996mb low over the OK/TX Panhandle at 102hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Through 120hr, 992mb N of STL, stronger WAA and overall about 6hr faster. good snow from southern WI back to KC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Good ole Panhandle Hooker.. Been a while.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I gather this looks good for both YYZ and YOW (Ottawa) as per the euro. If this were to verify, what a dramatic start to winter it would be. Here's hoping, but not holding my breath. The system looks unimpressive on the GFS, but that model has been a mess for the past week and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 988mb over Gary, IN. Warm tongue into Chicago. Heavy snows from Keokuk, IA to GRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 All snow in Chicago by 132hr as temps crash, crazy looking pressure gradient. 988mb over central/southern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 SE trend plz kthxbai For the region as a whole though, best looking 5-day-out possibility so far this winter....maybe last winter too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 This run looks a tad warmer, I would assume we would start off as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Another strong solution but a bit NW of the 0z run and blizzard potential still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 For Toronto, is the Euro saying that this starts off as rain then turns into a snowstorm as the front comes through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 I gather this looks good for both YYZ and YOW (Ottawa) as per the euro. If this were to verify, what a dramatic start to winter it would be. Here's hoping, but not holding my breath. The system looks unimpressive on the GFS, but that model has been a mess for the past week and a half. What? It's sub 980 mb on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 What? It's sub 980 mb on the GFS. Glorified frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Dang. Need the low ahead of it to bring down some colder air which could help for a further SE track. Doesn't look good as a the trend with stronger storms is usually more NW than SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Nice to have something inside of 5 days for a change, the separation between waves looks to be a key aspect in allowing this next trough to amplify more significantly than the previous few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The teleconnections for this period would suggest this system has the best potential of any system this season thus far (and probably for the rest of the month too)...now whether or not it works out is another question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 SE trend plz kthxbaiFor the region as a whole though, best looking 5-day-out possibility so far this winter....maybe last winter too? its been awhile to say the least. I think it's gonna take the GFS another day or two for it to catch up to the other models....Euro/Gem have right idea as of now with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Need the low ahead of it to bring down some colder air which could help for a further SE track. Doesn't look good as a the trend with stronger storms is usually more NW than SE. Indeed. At this point we are in a good spot. But TBH i feel like punching something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I will be NWLM middle late next week. Might have to cancel that trip or... Freakin wing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 BTW, anyone else seeing Model Data crossed out on the wundermap page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 BTW, anyone else seeing Model Data crossed out on the wundermap page?It was working this morning not sure what's going on with itSent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 12z UKMET track is roughly from Galesburg to the thumb of MI, with signs of a new low developing around Richmond, VA at 144 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I've already put up the white flag for this one. If this storm becomes as amped as it's looking now, there's no way Detroit's getting any significant snow out of this. But I'm definitely pulling for everyone north and west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 12z Euro definitely less amplified with the pattern across the western US into the Gulf of Alaska vs the 00z. Although back to being a little faster again, this run still spins up the storm just in time to nail southeast Iowa. It's a fine line... a bit more amped and slow solution could mean a blizzard for Iowa while another 6-12 hours faster could mean much less as the storm would not spin up soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 impressive WAA being shown....this has the look of a classic northwest trender Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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