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December 20-22 Winter Storm (Blizzard?) Potential


Hoosier

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Figured it was time to start a thread for this event. Goes without saying that being 5 days out we have to be careful to not get too wrapped up in any one solution, and there's a non-trivial chance that this ends up being a relatively non-exciting event for much of the subforum. That being said, the latest solutions are downright impressive with a surface low rapidly deepening in the Lakes late next week. The overall setup and a quick look at GFS wind progs/momentum transfer would support potential blizzard conditions on the backside should the deeper solutions come to pass.

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I gather this looks good for both YYZ and YOW (Ottawa) as per the euro. If this were to verify, what a dramatic start to winter it would be. Here's hoping, but not holding my breath.

The system looks unimpressive on the GFS, but that model has been a mess for the past week and a half.

What? It's sub 980 mb on the GFS.

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SE trend plz kthxbai

For the region as a whole though, best looking 5-day-out possibility so far this winter....maybe last winter too?

its been awhile to say the least.

I think it's gonna take the GFS another day or two for it to catch up to the other models....Euro/Gem have right idea as of now with this system.

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12z Euro definitely less amplified with the pattern across the western US into the Gulf of Alaska vs the 00z. Although back to being a little faster again, this run still spins up the storm just in time to nail southeast Iowa. It's a fine line... a bit more amped and slow solution could mean a blizzard for Iowa while another 6-12 hours faster could mean much less as the storm would not spin up soon enough.

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