IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Since a model consensus appears to be growing towards a possible major noreaster mid to late next week I felt that it was time to create a seperate discussion thread. I leave you with today's ECMWF run at hr 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro ensembles take the surface low pretty much just inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro ensembles take the surface low pretty much just inside the benchmark. They're also quite a bit cooler than the Operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This looks like another rain to snow scenario right now as the storm deepens taps into the cold air to the north and creates its own cold air - track is critical as long as it tracks east of us and not right over us or slightly west of us a portion of the storm here should be frozen IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Potential as in climatology but scientifically it is way to early to forecast. Got to keep our eye on things and wait it out. Four, three, two, one days out is within our probabilistic capabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This looks like another rain to snow scenario right now as the storm deepens taps into the cold air to the north and creates its own cold air - track is critical as long as it tracks east of us and not right over us or slightly west of us a portion of the storm here should be frozen IMO I agree. A low as deep as what the models are forecasting for this system should be able to have some nice dynamics associated with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 18z GFS looks even worse than the 12z run and way different than the Euro,Ukie and GGEM. GFS is faster with this storm than the Euro is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 18z GFS looks even worse than the 12z run and way different than the Euro,Ukie and GGEM. GFS is faster with this storm than the Euro is. Low travels just West of NYC this run. Pretty warm run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 H5 evolution is light years different than the euro. Euro dives the pacific NW s/w in. GFS doesnt even use it and just uses the first wave which will easily cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 18z GFS looks even worse than the 12z run and way different than the Euro,Ukie and GGEM. GFS is faster with this storm than the Euro is. using past performance of the GFS this season as our guide back in November the GFS was doing the same thing its doing now with this system and will be playing catch up the next few days gradually moving towards the EURO solution.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Based on climo I would give best shot of real accums north and west. With marginal cold air available we need a perfect track that puts the deform band right over the coast to give a shot of accums here. 40/70 or bust here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 For what it's worth, the ECM EPS Control run has a monster low along the NJ coast. Definitely a rain event for the region, but definitely a strong signal for a storm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 FWIW, the evolution of the storm on the 18z GEFS looks like a carbon copy of the operational run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Almost all the 18z GEFS members are amped up like the GFS. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Another GFS run with a completely different upper air pattern through 84 hours. That shortwave is much more organized over the Plains so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Another GFS run with a completely different upper air pattern through 84 hours. That shortwave is much more organized over the Plains so far. Yup, individual OP runs mean very little at this range, with all the variables at play. It's hard to even pick up a discernible trend this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yup, individual OP runs mean very little at this range, with all the variables at play. It's hard to even pick up a discernible trend this far out. There will be a mean trough over the Central US at 90 hours. That's about all I can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The GFS is being the GFS again. *sigh* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Absolutely no cold air on the East Coast...the first surface low goes almost to the International Border in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The energy is not digging nearly as much as it was in yesterday's runs. It runs into a very warm airmass as opposed to one that actually has time to be fed CAA into. Awful solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I hate to sound like a broken record but i have been banging this drum about the lack of cold air due to the strong pac jet and displaced PV. If the psuedo NAO block isnt as strong and west based as was modeled, its a torch pattern. Even with the block, a storm passing south of the area does not equal snow with all of Canada basically torched (relative to the means) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The gfs is just awful but it makes sense to some degree, you're not going to get a lot of cold with raging pacific air and a total cutoff from any cold even with a block. I don't know if we will see anything unless the pacific changes. And talk about torching, we struggle to even see below freezing temperatures around here for mid December, just a pathetic air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I hate to sound like a broken record but i have been banging this drum about the lack of cold air due to the strong pac jet and displaced PV. If the psuedo NAO block isnt as strong and west based as was modeled, its a torch pattern. Even with the block, a storm passing south of the area does not equal snow with all of Canada basically torched (relative to the means) Dude western and central Canada are cold. The PAC is in the process of reshuffling. The trof axis is pulled back til around the 20 th. pattern will change by the 20 th. we live in ny not every coastal yields a snowstorm. B patient. The last 10 days of dec will b very diff than 1st 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Not only does the storm at 216 hours on the GFS have a good signal on the ensembles as it comes into the Western US and then eastward, there is a nicely placed block..50/50 low..cold air supply and a well signaled west coast ridge spike on an axis near Boise. This would place the storm around the 22nd-24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Not only does the storm at 216 hours on the GFS have a good signal on the ensembles as it comes into the Western US and then eastward, there is a nicely placed block..50/50 low..cold air supply and a well signaled west coast ridge spike on an axis near Boise. This would place the storm around the 22nd-24th. Excellent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 0z ukmet at 144 hours http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=120 It has 3 storms. This run also blows up the 2nd storm. 3rd storm digging down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Hr 144-150. Nice hint that CNJ goes over So my thinking some pp goes over to snow on the end if the dynamics r right Will not b on same spot in 3days But it may b a case of the modeling seeing the block then having to retrograde before pulling away In that case cold air could wrapped in underneath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Not only does the storm at 216 hours on the GFS have a good signal on the ensembles as it comes into the Western US and then eastward, there is a nicely placed block..50/50 low..cold air supply and a well signaled west coast ridge spike on an axis near Boise. This would place the storm around the 22nd-24th. We might be waiting until that weekend for our shot at snow if you ask me. The pattern will develop, it just make take a bit longer than next week. Heck, it could take until end of December to fully be developed, which can happen. End 2012 with a bang? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GGEM goes nuts with the final wave at 180 hours...same wave the Euro blows up..but farther offshore. Edit: Temperature maps haven't updated yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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