Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 What do you think for Toronto OL? 4-8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Are your thinking the same applies for the Hudson Valley? I have noticed that the stronger the high to the north, and the thicker that low level cold air, the less we downslope. I was worried because I wasn't to impressed with the surface cold air here. The Euro, NAM and WRF-ARW models have all been suggesting a CAD signature along the Hudson Valley, with an inverted ridge depicted at the surface. I have been wondering about the effect this CAD may have on the degree of downsloping for the last few days. I think some of the cold air may act as an extension to to the Helderbergs as it pools up next to the higher terrain, with enhanced isentropic lift from the strong easterly flow. However, I'm not sure if the strong easterly flow might actually just scour the cold air out of the valley allowing more significant downsloping in areas west of the Hudson River. Areas just east of the Berkshires and Southern Greens look to have significant shadowing either way during the easterly flow regime. I think it will probably end up being a nowcasting situation for us in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The SPC SREFs allow you to view the probability of moist potential vorticity (MPV) >0.25 and frontogenesis >0.1 which are the two parameters involved in the calculation of conditional symmetric instability (CSI). CSI is often responsible for mesoscale banding during large scale cold season synoptic precipitation events. Based on this product, it looks like there is real potential for CSI banding in the western NY area tomorrow night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The SPC SREFs allow you to view the probability of moist potential vorticity (MPV) >0.25 and frontogenesis >0.1 which are the two parameters involved in the calculation of conditional symmetric instability (CSI). CSI is often responsible for mesoscale banding during large scale cold season synoptic precipitation events. Based on this product, it looks like there is real potential for CSI banding in the western NY area tomorrow night: Great set of graphics, Justin. When we have the potential for banding, we also have the potential to overperform in some places, but unfortunately underperform in others. May all bands reside overhead of all our members!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 gun to my head I'd go 10" for BUF and 14" for ROC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 HRW model snowfall between 1am -7am thurs http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=183093 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 gun to my head I'd go 10" for BUF and 14" for ROC. I'll take the "over" for ROC In all honesty, there's not much left to discuss at this point - it's pretty much a waiting game from here on out. The kinematics of this event are very impressive, so there will be no shortage of intense lift through a deep layer...and as you pointed out earlier today, that lift will extend up into the dendritic growth region. Add the potential for CSI and we could be looking at a period of very intense snowfall across virtually all of western NY from late tomorrow into tomorrow night. As far as timing is concerned, I'm favoring the 5-11PM timeframe for our heaviest snowfall...maybe a couple hours earlier near the state line, and a couple hours later near Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 HRW model snowfall between 1am -7am thurs http://forums.accuwe...=post&id=183093 that maps a bit of a joke. 10" in southern rhode island? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 HRW model snowfall between 1am -7am thurs http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=183093 thats from 12z. Heres tonights 00z for the whole storm.http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_eus_048_precip_p48.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'll take the "over" for ROC In all honesty, there's not much left to discuss at this point - it's pretty much a waiting game from here on out. The kinematics of this event are very impressive, so there will be no shortage of intense lift through a deep layer...and as you pointed out earlier today, that lift will extend up into the dendritic growth region. Add the potential for CSI and we could be looking at a period of very intense snowfall across virtually all of western NY from late tomorrow into tomorrow night. As far as timing is concerned, I'm favoring the 5-11PM timeframe for our heaviest snowfall...maybe a couple hours earlier near the state line, and a couple hours later near Lake Ontario. it's certainly possible. I'm actually curious as to whether BUF can get into LO enhancement in a set up like this. While not overly cold, there is decent low-level lake instability and strong NE winds. The low is closer than usual...so you have a more easterly component to the wind than usual. The slight tick east and faster solutions over the past 24 hours have me on the under 12" for BUF train. NAM is too warm and too slow according to NCEP, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 By the way, it already looks like there could be some weenie LES trying to organize along the south shore of Lake Ontario...with perhaps a few flurries teasing the Niagara County lakeshore. It'll be interesting to see if some legit LES can organize by tomorrow morning in that area. Really feeling this event for the counties bordering Lake Ontario, especially from ROC west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Euro kuca little less then 1" kalb 1"+ ksyr little less then 1" roc 1"+ buf little less then 1" slk 1"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 By the way, it already looks like there could be some weenie LES trying to organize along the south shore of Lake Ontario...with perhaps a few flurries teasing the Niagara County lakeshore. It'll be interesting to see if some legit LES can organize by tomorrow morning in that area. Really feeling this event for the counties bordering Lake Ontario, especially from ROC west... I really hope yur right. ive lived in kroc for my entire life and these storms really crank up some lake 'enhancement' with the NE winds. I'll wait to celebrate. CMC shows this thing of ours going way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It's curious how the models are showing this apparent downsloping area. The topography west of the Catskills is highly variable though. It's not like the Hudson Valley where you have a deep N/S aligned valley floor west of the Taconics/Greens. The land west of the Catskills includes some decent valleys such as the Susquehanna which could be downsloped I suppose, but also plenty of ridge lines, plateaus, etc. that are quite elevated and thus less susceptible to any downslope effects. The Catskills after all are simply an eastern extension of the overall Allegany Plateau, containing the highest terrain of that plateau. It looks like the nam downslopes the area just west of the catskills http://forums.accuwe...=post&id=183044 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 That's a fascinating map. It shows tremendous downsloping effects in the HV versus the Helderberg escarpment where we get blitzed. Makes you wonder if that is too extreme. It also shows the apparent downsloping zone (though less pronounced) west of the Catskills. But if you look at the map closely, that qpf hole is centered over parts of Delaware County which are actually fairly elevated so that casts doubt on the downsloping explanation there. HRW model snowfall between 1am -7am thurs http://forums.accuwe...=post&id=183093 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 krme is down to 6 degrees with clear skies, the forecast low was 16.. Few locations from around the area.. APRSWXNET Dolgeville NY , Dolgeville, NY 8 °F Kirkland, Clark Mills, NY 1.6 °F South Utica, New Hartford, NY 5.5 °F Curtin Dairy, Cassville, NY 3.5 °F Marcy, NY 4.8 °F Bartlett, NY, Westmoreland, NY 4.3 °F Farrington Rd, Newport, NY 8.1 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 .WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PMEST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...CAPITAL DISTRICT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CENTRAL TACONICS. * HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CHANGING TO A MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING. A CHANGE TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 12 INCHES. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. * MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...BRIEF INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET...AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING...THEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL ON LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. * VISIBILITIES...FREQUENTLY BELOW 1 MILE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS BELOW ONE HALF MILE. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S RISING INTO THE LOWER 30S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 From NWS BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Could bust big with the "min qpf" slot position, but I think it will be realized somewhere. Congrats Finger Lakes and our Canadian friends!! (Edit to clean up a contouring error) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 although I hope this happens, if it does, we are going to run into problems up here considering we got 18'' on the 21st.... but bring it on! Could bust big with the "min qpf" slot position, but I think it will be realized somewhere. Congrats Finger Lakes and our Canadian friends!! (Edit to clean up a contouring error) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Sweet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Latest RGEM would satisfy lots on this board (some before and after this panel): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The first flakes have begun to fall here in the Jamestown area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I've been watching the 10-14" zone creep SE over the past few days.... NWS has had a pretty good track record the past 2 years (before that WX4CAST was by far the most accurate in our area). We'll see what happens this year! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/WSW.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 This is a local forecasters final call on snow totals for this event. Looks about right.... LOCK IT IN! =P I think this is why humans are better then computers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Looks like the NAM MOS is running about 5 degrees too warm for ALB. It had 29 for 18z and the current temperature is only 24. The GFS was even farther off with 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 This is a local forecasters final call on snow totals for this event. Looks about right.... LOCK IT IN! =P I think this is why humans are better then computers. Its a problem with the display. Its really displaying the amounts in cm but is showing it in inches for some reason. So Buffalo has 37 cm which is about 14.5"... Albion's 53 cm is close to 2 feet however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYwhiteout Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Looks like the dry slot is around Pittsburgh and heading in the direction of WNY. Any chance that fills in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Is Liberty NY considered ther Northern or Southern Catskills? Here's hoping we stay all snow here without mixing and get a solid foot out of it over a long duration 15 hour event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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