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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December


Alpha5

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Are your thinking the same applies for the Hudson Valley? I have noticed that the stronger the high to the north, and the thicker that low level cold air, the less we downslope. I was worried because I wasn't to impressed with the surface cold air here.

The Euro, NAM and WRF-ARW models have all been suggesting a CAD signature along the Hudson Valley, with an inverted ridge depicted at the surface. I have been wondering about the effect this CAD may have on the degree of downsloping for the last few days. I think some of the cold air may act as an extension to to the Helderbergs as it pools up next to the higher terrain, with enhanced isentropic lift from the strong easterly flow. However, I'm not sure if the strong easterly flow might actually just scour the cold air out of the valley allowing more significant downsloping in areas west of the Hudson River. Areas just east of the Berkshires and Southern Greens look to have significant shadowing either way during the easterly flow regime. I think it will probably end up being a nowcasting situation for us in the valley.

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The SPC SREFs allow you to view the probability of moist potential vorticity (MPV) >0.25 and frontogenesis >0.1 which are the two parameters involved in the calculation of conditional symmetric instability (CSI). CSI is often responsible for mesoscale banding during large scale cold season synoptic precipitation events. Based on this product, it looks like there is real potential for CSI banding in the western NY area tomorrow night:

post-619-0-94117200-1356494980_thumb.png

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The SPC SREFs allow you to view the probability of moist potential vorticity (MPV) >0.25 and frontogenesis >0.1 which are the two parameters involved in the calculation of conditional symmetric instability (CSI). CSI is often responsible for mesoscale banding during large scale cold season synoptic precipitation events. Based on this product, it looks like there is real potential for CSI banding in the western NY area tomorrow night:

post-619-0-94117200-1356494980_thumb.png

Great set of graphics, Justin. When we have the potential for banding, we also have the potential to overperform in some places, but unfortunately underperform in others.

May all bands reside overhead of all our members!! :)

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gun to my head I'd go 10" for BUF and 14" for ROC.

I'll take the "over" for ROC :P

In all honesty, there's not much left to discuss at this point - it's pretty much a waiting game from here on out. The kinematics of this event are very impressive, so there will be no shortage of intense lift through a deep layer...and as you pointed out earlier today, that lift will extend up into the dendritic growth region. Add the potential for CSI and we could be looking at a period of very intense snowfall across virtually all of western NY from late tomorrow into tomorrow night.

As far as timing is concerned, I'm favoring the 5-11PM timeframe for our heaviest snowfall...maybe a couple hours earlier near the state line, and a couple hours later near Lake Ontario.

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I'll take the "over" for ROC :P

In all honesty, there's not much left to discuss at this point - it's pretty much a waiting game from here on out. The kinematics of this event are very impressive, so there will be no shortage of intense lift through a deep layer...and as you pointed out earlier today, that lift will extend up into the dendritic growth region. Add the potential for CSI and we could be looking at a period of very intense snowfall across virtually all of western NY from late tomorrow into tomorrow night.

As far as timing is concerned, I'm favoring the 5-11PM timeframe for our heaviest snowfall...maybe a couple hours earlier near the state line, and a couple hours later near Lake Ontario.

it's certainly possible. I'm actually curious as to whether BUF can get into LO enhancement in a set up like this. While not overly cold, there is decent low-level lake instability and strong NE winds. The low is closer than usual...so you have a more easterly component to the wind than usual.

The slight tick east and faster solutions over the past 24 hours have me on the under 12" for BUF train.

NAM is too warm and too slow according to NCEP, btw.

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By the way, it already looks like there could be some weenie LES trying to organize along the south shore of Lake Ontario...with perhaps a few flurries teasing the Niagara County lakeshore. It'll be interesting to see if some legit LES can organize by tomorrow morning in that area.

Really feeling this event for the counties bordering Lake Ontario, especially from ROC west...

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By the way, it already looks like there could be some weenie LES trying to organize along the south shore of Lake Ontario...with perhaps a few flurries teasing the Niagara County lakeshore. It'll be interesting to see if some legit LES can organize by tomorrow morning in that area.

Really feeling this event for the counties bordering Lake Ontario, especially from ROC west...

I really hope yur right. ive lived in kroc for my entire life and these storms really crank up some lake 'enhancement' with the NE winds. I'll wait to celebrate. CMC shows this thing of ours going way east.

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It's curious how the models are showing this apparent downsloping area. The topography west of the Catskills is highly variable though. It's not like the Hudson Valley where you have a deep N/S aligned valley floor west of the Taconics/Greens. The land west of the Catskills includes some decent valleys such as the Susquehanna which could be downsloped I suppose, but also plenty of ridge lines, plateaus, etc. that are quite elevated and thus less susceptible to any downslope effects. The Catskills after all are simply an eastern extension of the overall Allegany Plateau, containing the highest terrain of that plateau.

It looks like the nam downslopes the area just west of the catskills

http://forums.accuwe...=post&id=183044

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That's a fascinating map. It shows tremendous downsloping effects in the HV versus the Helderberg escarpment where we get blitzed. Makes you wonder if that is too extreme.

It also shows the apparent downsloping zone (though less pronounced) west of the Catskills. But if you look at the map closely, that qpf hole is centered over parts of Delaware County which are actually fairly elevated so that casts doubt on the downsloping explanation there.

HRW model snowfall between 1am -7am thurs

http://forums.accuwe...=post&id=183093

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krme is down to 6 degrees with clear skies, the forecast low was 16..

Few locations from around the area..

APRSWXNET Dolgeville NY , Dolgeville, NY 8 °F

Kirkland, Clark Mills, NY 1.6 °F

South Utica, New Hartford, NY 5.5 °F

Curtin Dairy, Cassville, NY 3.5 °F

Marcy, NY 4.8 °F

Bartlett, NY, Westmoreland, NY 4.3 °F

Farrington Rd, Newport, NY 8.1 °F

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.WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM

EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT

FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM

WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...CAPITAL DISTRICT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CENTRAL

TACONICS.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CHANGING TO A MIX WITH

SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING. A CHANGE TO RAIN IS

POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 12

INCHES.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...BRIEF INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF 1 TO 2

INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY

MORNING.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER

SUNSET...AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. SLEET AND

FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY

MORNING AND CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING...THEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS

THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND LIGHT

ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL ON LATE

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...FREQUENTLY BELOW 1 MILE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY

SNOW...WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS BELOW ONE HALF MILE.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE

ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S RISING INTO THE LOWER 30S

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although I hope this happens, if it does, we are going to run into problems up here considering we got 18'' on the 21st.... but bring it on! :)

Could bust big with the "min qpf" slot position, but I think it will be realized somewhere. Congrats Finger Lakes and our Canadian friends!! (Edit to clean up a contouring error)

122612snowstormmap.png

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This is a local forecasters final call on snow totals for this event. Looks about right.... :blink: LOCK IT IN! =P

I think this is why humans are better then computers. ^_^

rpmr.jpg

Its a problem with the display. Its really displaying the amounts in cm but is showing it in inches for some reason. So Buffalo has 37 cm which is about 14.5"... Albion's 53 cm is close to 2 feet however.
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