usedtobe Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 The EPO and pna continue to be bad. Euro and its ens mean continue to like cutters. The NAEF now have us with a better than 50% chance of being warm in the dec 17-23 period....a step back from the normal look of yesterday. By contrast, the 06Z GEFS ens has a cooler look at 240 hrs. The CFS2 has trended back to warmer than normal for the week ending dec 23, near normal or slightly above for the period ending dec 29 and below normal for the dec 30th through Jan 5th period. It's been jumping around alot in the longer time ranges. http://origin.cpc.nc...1208.NAsfcT.gif I still don't see any snow chances through dec 23 but that means little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 The EPO and pna continue to be bad. Euro and its ens mean continue to like cutters. The NAEF now have us with a better than 50% chance of being warm in the dec 17-23 period....a step back from the normal look of yesterday. By contrast, the 06Z GEFS ens has a cooler look at 240 hrs. The CFS2 has trended back to warmer than normal for the week ending dec 23, near normal or slightly above for the period ending dec 29 and below normal for the dec 30th through Jan 5th period. It's been jumping around alot in the longer time ranges. http://origin.cpc.nc...1208.NAsfcT.gif I still don't see any snow chances through dec 23 but that means little. don't feel bad, the club seems all inclusive with every met currently a member Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 The EPO and pna continue to be bad. Euro and its ens mean continue to like cutters. The NAEF now have us with a better than 50% chance of being warm in the dec 17-23 period....a step back from the normal look of yesterday. By contrast, the 06Z GEFS ens has a cooler look at 240 hrs. The CFS2 has trended back to warmer than normal for the week ending dec 23, near normal or slightly above for the period ending dec 29 and below normal for the dec 30th through Jan 5th period. It's been jumping around alot in the longer time ranges. http://origin.cpc.nc...1208.NAsfcT.gif I still don't see any snow chances through dec 23 but that means little. and there is no compelling evidence that is changing anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Close miss on Thursday? It's been hinted at for a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 and there is no compelling evidence that is changing anytime soon All it takes is one or two good runs in a row to change our minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 All it takes is one or two good runs in a row to change our minds. Its not the runs. Its the pattern. ANd in the PAC the pattern is horrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Its not the runs. Its the pattern. ANd in the PAC the pattern is horrid. I assume if the run improves its because the pattern suddenly improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I think we all agree, the pattern sucks, if a model shows a snowstorm, it will loose it the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 All it takes is one or two good runs in a row to change our minds. The Euro shows decent blocking at the end of the run, but it probably doesn't matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 The Euro shows decent blocking at the end of the run, but it probably doesn't matter Maybe it can keep that low a little further south than its currently modeled. Can't tell much from the maps I can access, but there seems to be a cad signature there. Maybe some front end stuff even if the low were to go to Pitt as modeled? Of course that low may not be there next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 Maybe it can keep that low a little further south than its currently modeled. Can't tell much from the maps I can access, but there seems to be a cad signature there. Maybe some front end stuff even if the low were to go to Pitt as modeled? Of course that low may not be there next run. as modeled it is a warm torchy disaster with the primary low over Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 as modeled it is a warm torchy disaster with the primary low over Indiana Is that the same euro that gave us 4-8 inches today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Man things get close for you guys in DC we'd night if the NAM is to be believed. Several srefs like the idea too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Man things get close for you guys in DC we'd night if the NAM is to be believed. Several srefs like the idea too. in keeping with this season, precip comes at the warmest time of day and so the boundary says rain this is the 3rd year in a row for this I remember the days when when the surface was always cold enough and there was a sneaky warm layer above 850 that screwed us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 in keeping with this season, precip comes at the warmest time of day and so the boundary says rain this is the 3rd year in a row for this I remember the days when when the surface was always cold enough and there was a sneaky warm layer above 850 that screwed us 30 years to the day of the Snowplow game at Foxboro...near 10" in N. VA. <Delete if already mentioned...have not read the thread> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 this is almost comical even though it will likely not play out like this Jerry in the NE forum mentioned how the CFS2 was cold for weeks 3 and 4 so I looked well, week 3, not so much but week 4 is; here's a link to week 3 (top) and week 4 (bottom) http://origin.cpc.nc...1208.NAsfcT.gif so my weenie self said, I wonder if there's any precip too here's the precip link....but be sure to place JI on suicide watch first http://origin.cpc.nc...20121208.NA.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 this is almost comical even though it will likely not play out like this Jerry in the NE forum mentioned how the CFS2 was cold for weeks 3 and 4 so I looked well, week 3, not so much but week 4 is; here's a link to week 3 (top) and week 4 (bottom) http://origin.cpc.nc...1208.NAsfcT.gif so my weenie self said, I wonder if there's any precip too here's the precip link....but be sure to place JI on suicide watch first http://origin.cpc.nc...20121208.NA.gif Warm and wet, cold and dry....we have seen that nightmare before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Region 3.4 is negative in the weeklies for the 1st time since early May...and the PDO is tanking http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Region 3.4 is negative in the weeklies for the 1st time since early May...and the PDO is tanking http://www.cpc.ncep....s/wksst8110.for I'm not sure what that means except the negative EPO and rpna are probably helping the PDO tank. It also may partially explain the nina look to the pattern. If we have a nina next winter, there will be posters ready to jump before winter actually even starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I'm not sure what that means except the negative EPO and rpna are probably helping the PDO tank. It also may partially explain the nina look to the pattern. If we have a nina next winter, there will be posters ready to jump before winter actually even starts. which is quickly becoming the "new normal" around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 interesting what the GFS does with the storm next week it crashes the NAO so much, the storm headed for NE instead goes to our south and we probably see some wet snow out of it, though boundary temps are iffy again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Mitch...GFS looks like it's trying to set up a CAD event, but obviously doesn't get it very cold. I don't mind chalking that up a bit to a resolution problem. The pattern's not great, but certainly looks like it at least will get stormy next week. Would take Houdini to pull an all-snow event out of this pattern, but a mixed precip event is in the realm of the possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Mitch...GFS looks like it's trying to set up a CAD event, but obviously doesn't get it very cold. I don't mind chalking that up a bit to a resolution problem. The pattern's not great, but certainly looks like it at least will get stormy next week. Would take Houdini to pull an all-snow event out of this pattern, but a mixed precip event is in the realm of the possible. yep, agree the consequences of the long advertised tanking NAO may be enough to at least get us into the holiday spirit nice to see a -NAO on something other than a day 10+ map too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I admit to not looking at the models in detail over the weekend, but the 12z GFS goes full-bore pattern change after Day 10. I don't recall seeing anything remotely similar on previous runs, and it even looks like a pretty big change from 6z. This might be a run that needs to just get tossed into the trash heap. Have to see if there's any support on the ensembles. Anyway, 12z brings a huge PNA ridge onshore and gets close to connecting it to an Alaskan ridge. Starts bringing in an Aleutian low. Just a huge (and favorable) change. This change says one of two things to me: 1. (most likely) Chalk this run up to chaos and throw it away 2. (less likely) The MJO signal has finally "hit" the models and is making itself known Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Mitch...GFS looks like it's trying to set up a CAD event, but obviously doesn't get it very cold. I don't mind chalking that up a bit to a resolution problem. The pattern's not great, but certainly looks like it at least will get stormy next week. Would take Houdini to pull an all-snow event out of this pattern, but a mixed precip event is in the realm of the possible. Several of the 6z members had a solution similar to this as well. Be nice to see another model come on board with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 I admit to not looking at the models in detail over the weekend, but the 12z GFS goes full-bore pattern change after Day 10. I don't recall seeing anything remotely similar on previous runs, and it even looks like a pretty big change from 6z. This might be a run that needs to just get tossed into the trash heap. Have to see if there's any support on the ensembles. Anyway, 12z brings a huge PNA ridge onshore and gets close to connecting it to an Alaskan ridge. Starts bringing in an Aleutian low. Just a huge (and favorable) change. This change says one of two things to me: 1. (most likely) Chalk this run up to chaos and throw it away 2. (less likely) The MJO signal has finally "hit" the models and is making itself known ENS on board with a much better look...ridge placement isn't ideal but you can see the possibility of a split flow and pos heights in the EPO region...something would probably go to our west in that pattern but not inconceivable to get front end thumped or even snow on the back end of some redeveloping system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Euro looks much better at day 10....though not there yet...the CONUS is pretty cold across the board....or getting there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 ENS on board with a much better look...ridge placement isn't ideal but you can see the possibility of a split flow and pos heights in the EPO region...something would probably go to our west in that pattern but not inconceivable to get front end thumped or even snow on the back end of some redeveloping system... If we could get that Aleutian ridge to come east and get a more north/south ridge/trough orientation (i.e. Rex Block), we could get some winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Wow...like Matt said, ensemble mean looks WAY WAY better than it has. Yes, it's still 10-15 days away, but even the day 10-15 has been looking bad lately. I'm not as quite as jazzed about the Euro, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Whoa baby... All normal disclaimers apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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