andyhb Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 It looks like we are going to see some WSR (Winter Storm Recon) for the Pacific this week... 18z GFS kinda went awry with the trough's evolution so I'm glad this is taking place. I have strong suspicion that this recon led to the very nice consistency with the GFS on the 1/29-30 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Definitely like the possibilities for next weekend from Western KS/OK/TX and east. Should be an interesting week of model watching ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Dixie alley region from this morning's 12Z GFS. Very scary if anything like this verifies. As I said before, should be a fun week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Yeah I saw a hodograph just like that from the soundings I was browsing through. Impressive stuff, although plenty of time for that to change. Considering we're moving into mid February, it should begin to become easier to get instability/moisture into the warm sector, especially into Dixie Alley (at least going by climo). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 From a dProg/dt perspective, last night's GFS is looking like an anomaly now. Tonight's run is back to the junky, positive-tilt trough configuration that earlier runs had. Cyclogenesis will be weak sauce in this scenario, meaning anemic low-level shear and weak convergence along the dryline. So, looking at the last six 00z/12z runs as an ensemble of sorts (haven't dug into the GEFS recently), I'm going to remain doubtful until I see more evidence in this system's favor. EDIT: GGEM looking more solid still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 WFO Norman has a graphicast out on their page...which is unusual for them to do at a day 7 this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 EDIT: GGEM looking more solid still. And the Euro is gaining in impressiveness every run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 And the Euro is gaining in impressiveness every run... It looks damn fine kinematically for Saturday this run. Moisture return remains to be seen. My greatest wish for this trough is copious QPF over a large swath of the southern Plains (especially W of I-35), but some early-season dryline sups would be nice too, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 It looks damn fine kinematically for Saturday this run. Moisture return remains to be seen. My greatest wish for this trough is copious QPF over a large swath of the southern Plains (especially W of I-35), but some early-season dryline sups would be nice too, regardless. Sunday looks fairly impressive as well as the vort max ejects out of the larger scale trough, puts a 50-60 kt LLJ with backing sfc winds over the Lower/Mid MS Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Yeah as it stands right now Sunday would have the higher ceiling of the 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The 12z euro continues a more stronger further north storm for this coming weekend and now the 12z cmc agrees...could be a big snowstorm for parts of the n plains area. I hope the gfs brings it back on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Normally an NE poster, but are there any posters here from the SEA area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Normally an NE poster, but are there any posters here from the SEA area? I'm from the Pacific NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 12z gfs made a big jump towards what the euro has been showing for the late weekend storm...nice snowstorm for parts of nebraska up thru w/n wisconsin including areas of sd,ia & mn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 12z gfs made a big jump towards what the euro has been showing for the late weekend storm...nice snowstorm for parts of nebraska up thru w/n wisconsin including areas of sd,ia & mn. It has my attention. A lot of right things need to happen though. All models are notoriously bad at split flow phases with an active northern stream wave pattern. Better than nothing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It has my attention. A lot of right things need to happen though. All models are notoriously bad at split flow phases with an active northern stream wave pattern. Better than nothing though. Thats very true...easy to get suckered into the models when they show a big storm but i've seen this a couple times this winter where a storm is progged for days only to cave as we get closer to the event. I think it's wise to trust nothing the models show for a few more days yet and even then your at a gamble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 12z euro still on track for a good snowstorm in the n plains...the euro is about 12hrs faster than the gfs but the same areas get nailed by both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 0z GFS at 120...looks awesome with 1.25 total qpf for my area but still too far out to get that excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GGEM looks nice for your region as well prinsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GGEM looks nice for your region as well prinsburg. yeah, the ukie, gaps and ggem look good but being 4-5 days out you have to wonder if models will hold, past history probably says, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 yeah, the ukie, gaps and ggem look good but being 4-5 days out you have to wonder if models will hold, past history probably says, no. Its interesting how model trends change from winter to winter. Last winter I was the same as you, I expected every storm to fizzle because of model trends and it pretty much always would. Our largest winter storm was about 2.5 inches! That's sad. This year is different though. I have been able to identify storms even 10-12 days out and predict snowfall to the day many times. This storm coming in on Friday is the same and I have been expecting it for about a week. With that said it looks like a decent storm so I am hopeful for some good snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013 VALID 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT SRN STREAM MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL EJECT ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO SCNTRL TX MONDAY AS NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE UNIFIES WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INDUCE CONVECTION AS IT INTERACTS WITH MOIST/WEAKLY BUOYANT AIRMASS OVER EAST TX...THEN ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WITH THIS SYSTEM. LATER IN THE WEEK A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT MAY UNFOLD FROM EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS 100KT+ MID LEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHES WHAT SHOULD BE A MORE MOIST/BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT. IF UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS MANAGE TO ADVANCE SUBSTANTIALLY INLAND AN ORGANIZED SEVERE SCENARIO MAY UNFOLD DURING THE DAY8 PERIOD. WILL NOT INTRODUCE 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THIS SYSTEM MAY SLOW ENOUGH THAT THE MAIN THREAT COULD BE BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 02/14/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013 VALID 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT SRN STREAM MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL EJECT ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO SCNTRL TX MONDAY AS NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE UNIFIES WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INDUCE CONVECTION AS IT INTERACTS WITH MOIST/WEAKLY BUOYANT AIRMASS OVER EAST TX...THEN ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WITH THIS SYSTEM. LATER IN THE WEEK A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT MAY UNFOLD FROM EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS 100KT+ MID LEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHES WHAT SHOULD BE A MORE MOIST/BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT. IF UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS MANAGE TO ADVANCE SUBSTANTIALLY INLAND AN ORGANIZED SEVERE SCENARIO MAY UNFOLD DURING THE DAY8 PERIOD. WILL NOT INTRODUCE 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THIS SYSTEM MAY SLOW ENOUGH THAT THE MAIN THREAT COULD BE BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 02/14/2013 Definitely worth watching for both winter and severe threats. There is definitely going to be a longwave trough digging through the intermountain W with good spacing behind the eastern US trough. GOM will be open. Impressive agreement on the large scale pattern among all the major platforms and ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Impressive 12Z GFS solution for this far out. It appears the WSR is paying some dividends with the guidance. A sub 990mb surface low certainly raises an eyebrow at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z ECMWF is impressive...ejecting undoubtedly the most impressive leeside low since last Feb 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The wind profiles on the GFS/Euro are off the charts, any type of decent instability would mean some fairly significant problems potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12Z GFS is downright scary, I don't recall seeing 90kts+ low level jet near the warm sector ever before. I'm really hoping this system doesn't pan out... the south-east has had enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z continues to impress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12Z GFS is downright scary, I don't recall seeing 90kts+ low level jet near the warm sector ever before. I'm really hoping this system doesn't pan out... the south-east has had enough. I'm not sure we're going to get 90 kts in the effective warm sector (as in the most thermodynamically sound), although 60-80 kts at H85 wouldn't surprise me with this intensity of a storm, should it pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 JAN giving a cautious heads up for another possible svr wx event in their area in 7-8 days but naturally wants more refinement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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