WilkesboroDude Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Let's get those early thoughts a rolling...(this thread does not mean the current winter will fail by any means). Also rant here if you feel inclined to move on from the current winter to the next one...to help keep the sour posts out of the good discussion threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I think its time to move farther north. Where they see more snow in a cruddy winter than we do in our best ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 26, 2012 Author Share Posted November 26, 2012 I think they even suffered last winter...time to move up in elevation in NC. There will be places with more snow from just Hurricane Sandy in NC than my total for the winter. Old obviously...but still a forecast he made. AccuWeather.com Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi believes there is a significant chance for particularly frigid winters in 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 into 2014-2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Odds are, it will be colder than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I am going warm! Let the haters hate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I am going warm! Let the haters hate! I Hate warm winters!!! lol But I do like you Mr.Bob!!! Hope your forecast fails... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Winter starts December 21 and we already looking at next year, lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I do hate to admit it but I have a uncomfortable gut feeling the 16 to 34 inches of snow that fell from Hurricane Sandy will end up being the highest snowfall single event of this winter season (2012-2013). Hope I am wrong ! ! For the record, the 34 inch totals from Sandy were on Roan Mountain and Mount Leconte. Beech Mountain got 22 inches = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Well, the 9360 hour GFS shows a massive -NAO/+PNA combo, so it looks like we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I was just going to post someone will probably have a model that shows a good pattern emerging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Winter starts December 21 and we already looking at next year, lol!! For the most people on this forum winter starts December 1st. This is supposed to be a science forum and met winter is December - February. I'm going with a 50 / 50 shot landing either warmer or cooler than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Lol, I have to keep reminding myself that many here are much younger than me, and haven't experienced the mind twisting disasters that winter in the south often uses to break us down, and destroy all hope. And hope is really all we have, as models can only predict timing out a few days, at best, unless they get blind squirrel lucky. Last winter I held out hope until April 1st. not because of science, or deduction, but because I've seen things through the years that defy explaination to the mostly unscientific, like me. Deep snow in a warm spring, after endless bitter cold days without a drop of rain A blizzard in Ga. A freakin' blizzard in March...in Ga. IN GA!! All the long range or short range modeling and deduction can't nail every blip in the matrix. After a few years of heart break you just have to either go nuts, move, or wait to see what will happen. And hope for the best, lol. And if it helps to look at the goofy end of the GFS, and try to deduce patterns, then I think it is fine for us more left brained whack doodles...I know it helps me stay sane, even though I know it is a bunch of blind squirrels scrabbling about...and it's because I never had it before When I was a kid all I had was a few minutes of tv happy talk weather for a model, and if there was a criptic mention of "rain, and 32" at the end of the five day, all I had was my fantasy deductions that it could mean sleet or snow chances...maybe.... and I would hope and hope And if Bob, for example, scoffs at my GFS delusions, as I know he is not a fan of the long, long range, I'm fine with that, because I know he and I share a favorite sleet storm, and that's a stronger bond than any discussion over the merits of long range models.... and, I also know when he or Cheez start to honk a storm, it's time to perk up, because I'm no longer stuck with a few minutes of happy talk tv, but have at my disposal scientific models and folks who know how to read them, and who know what they can or can't do I am today blessed with a fountain of knowledge at my finger tips, and knowledgable people galore...but I also have learned thru many hard winter times....you just have to wait and see what happens, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I am going warm! Let the haters hate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Warmer than last year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 COLDEST. WINTER. EVA!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I'm thinking that this winter may be cooler than last year and much drier. Parts of NC may see their driest November on record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I'm going w/ normal....Not cold, not hot, just normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Nice.. This thread was created earlier than the 2012-13 winter last year. At least it was only a weej from the start of winter when that one was created. It was only November when this one was created. LOL. Warmest Winter ever!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 agreed with dsaur. doesnt matter what the computers say, mother nature can do whatever she wants... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Mr. T said it best. Prediction? Pain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 I don't foresee us undergoing the hottest year on record again for the US... How is the ENSO forecast looking long term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Well we know one thing. If there are early snows in the east (late October or so) we are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Well we know one thing. If there are early snows in the east (late October or so) we are screwe Spot on! If weexpierence another east coast high magnitude October Snow like the past 2 years, Then I'll be putting the nail in the coffins for winter before it even starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I'm pretty confident now that it will be winter of 2015-16 before KRDU receives another 6" snowstorm. Of course I'm wishcasting based on the long range BCW ensembles, but I really believe all the cliff divers for January 2016 will come around, in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 It will be warmer than normal. What is that old saying "things come in threes". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well I said this winter couldn't be worse than the last and it was pretty close. Both were absolutely horrid. With this in mind I won't even begin to speculate about next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well I said this winter couldn't be worse than the last and it was pretty close. Both were absolutely horrid. With this in mind I won't even begin to speculate about next year. I can't imagine 2 winters worse than the last 2 here. So, the worst thing that will happen here is that it's as bad as the last 2. Of course, there is still the rest of March and April to turn the tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 5* lock forecast: There will be some days warmer than normal, and a string of days with below normal temps. There will be 5-10 storm systems that the southeast will track. For many of us, it will be a devastating close call. For others, they will see snow. Wilkes will find a cure for broken skies, and Brick will tell us that the models have to trend in his favor because he is due for a good snow. Take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 I think it will be another winter of crap for most. But if you are far enough north in the South-East you could see some marginal events work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If the Pacific sucks, winter will suck. It's just that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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