DISCUSSION ONLY: Snow/rain/slopfest potential Tuesday 11/27/2012

[famartin]

EC and GFS are marginal, probably more rain along I-95 than anything else, but certainly NW areas could see a few inches of slop.

[tombo82685]

nams slug of precip for us on the 18z is no more. High and dry on 0z nam. Still wouldn't take the nam solution until its within 48 hrs.

[Parsley]

I blame Ray for starting this thread.

[Quakertown needs snow]

Is this the Elko storm?

[Parsley]

Is this the Elko storm?

lol, he sprinkled is Elko dust over our region.

Lets see what the GFS has to say......

[LMolineuxLM1]

Its all strung out and not able to get cranking, its rather flat on the look very little support for this event showing signs.

[tombo82685]

Its all strung out and not able to get cranking, its rather flat on the look very little support for this event showing signs.

i wouldnt say that til 12z tomorrow. the nam just went from a robust solution to nothing in one run.

[LMolineuxLM1]

i wouldnt say that til 12z tomorrow. the nam just went from a robust solution to nothing in one run.

Yeah i'll go with that.

[famartin]

Jesus, maybe I did jinx it

[RedSky]

Ukie holds serve for what it's worth, balls in the euro court to keep hope alive

[famartin]

EC still has it, but further south and weaker... PHL 0.57", TTN 0.50", ABE 0.34"

[Heisy]

Looks colder too Ray can you confirm?

[famartin]

Looks colder too Ray can you confirm?

Looks about the same to me actually.

[NaoPos]

Jesus, maybe I did jinx it

couldnt be any worse than hizenberg...

[phlwx]

Would have to think a 1-3 type event (probably more on the lines of 1 in the city) would be a reasonable call at this point north/west of 95. Wouldn't dare go higher than that.

[Mitchell Gaines]

_{Looking at EC data it's all snow in Philly. This run is somewhat colder than the 12z yesturday for those in philly or along the NJ turnpike/295. Most of south NJ and the shore is around 40 with rain. Precipitation start time was very favorable on this run as well. For snow we want it to start early to offset daytime heating. A later start time afternoon or evening would mean temps make it into the 40's for Philly and NJ. I would take this run given it passes the heaviest snow right over Mount Holly. Being daytime and temps just above freezing 35 or so on the EC I would expect ratios around 5:1 or so. 12z Model runs should be interesting. Personal views not NWS.}

[Quakertown needs snow]

it has to be very rare tracking a 2nd snow event for the area and still november

[tombo82685]

it has to be very rare tracking any snow event for the area and still november

fixed

[tombo82685]

Another thing i noticed, especially on the gfs since the storm is further south the southerly wind carnage isnt as pronounced anymore. 850 layer is the only area that back to some sort of south wind.

[tombo82685]

nam is coming in a good bit wetter along 0z euro lines. Precip starts right around dawn. Bl may still be an issue though with temps in the mid 30s.

[chubbs]

NAM looks like a nice quick dump. Gets in early in AM like Euro.

[tombo82685]

my sv snow map hs .25-1 from fall line north and west. Then 1-2 inches from central and northern chester co clipping northern delco then into central and northern montco and bucks.

[chubbs]

An inch or two on the grass - not bad for this time of year and marginal set-up

[Snow_Miser]

Yeah, this run is definitely wetter for the C NJ area points S and W. Not a bad run.

[Snow_Miser]

Snowmap barely shows anything

That's the GFS snow map.

[chubbs]

On the 12z NAM, the northern jet stream impulse is a little more defined, hence the northern stripe of precip is a more robust

[Snow_Miser]

On the 12z NAM, the northern jet stream impulse is a little more defined, hence the northern stripe of precip is a more robust

The NAM has been trending wetter for the area ever since the 00z run which gave the area nothing. Now with this 12z run, it gives the area a widespread 0.25-0.5" of pcpn. Should be interesting to see if those trends continue with the 12z suite in general and with the 18z NAM.

[Mitchell Gaines]

Dewpoints on the NAM are higher to start which makes it a bit warmer than the EC. Lower dewpoints to start and heavy precipitation rates will be needed to get the dynamical and evaporational cooling processes going.

[Heisy]

Mitchell thanks for your thoughts! I'm thinking snow gets in our area around 7-9am, it snows, but just wets the ground, we get some stickage as the day progresses, but mostly on grassy areas, 1-2 inches max. The NAM sim radar @ 48 hours (bound to change 100 times though) looks good, some heavier precip, could be a 3-4hr time range where we have a chance for accumulations, we'll see.

The models that had the storm hitting SNE were slowing the initial s/w down so that the backside s/w caught up to it & swung the trough negative. The latest trends from 18z yesterday to right now speed up the initial s/w so by the time it catches up to it it's too late.

[Heisy]

FWIW the 12z RGEM looks juiced up...

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif