CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Harvey is going to do the annual winter outlook with Judah Cohen on the 11pm broadcast. My guess is the snow advancement index will be talked about and he'll say the risk is for a colder than normal winter, based on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Yeah put it in the book...over 200 hours out. (they actually change you over to rain verbatim but north of the pike might stay frozen) The point here is at 7 days out..we're seeing all guidance trend colder and wintrier..as it should given the blocking and -NAO. This can and probably will morph into a fairly significant early season winter event for all of SNE..even the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Love Jerry's excitement. When level headed posters are impressed, great signs. Like CTblizz ;-) haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The point here is at 7 days out..we're seeing all guidance trend colder and wintrier..as it should given the blocking and -NAO. This can and probably will morph into a fairly significant early season winter event for all of SNE..even the coast There is a western trough though and the -NAO is east based...so there is room for this to cut. We'll need a well timed confluence zone to our north that would normally be there if we had a west based -NAO. Or hope that the main s/w is sheered as it ejects eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Is art lake still on the air (ch 10 pvd) or do those channel 6 guys in ri actually have graphics worthy of 1990 yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Is art lake still on the air (ch 10 pvd) or do those channel 6 guys in ri actually have graphics worthy of 1990 yet Art Lake may have passed away. Growing up, I was receiving the PVD channels, so I had 6 channels to completely weenie out on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I enjoyed Dickie but he didn't make up Montreal Express. It actually came from a Boston Gas commercial from the early 1970s. "Boston Gas Heat is the only way to beat the Montreal Express". A whole song with it. Dickie didn't come to Boston until after I left at the tail end of 1976. Bad timing...lol. nice history lesson - interesting stuff but, I only stated that he used it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Chronicle doing a story about Stowe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Will be cold enough for the Cape and Islands to see OES? Yeah the ocean is still quite warm relative to an air mass like that. The 850mb temperature dips below -10C , making the SST to LCL delta-T rather extreme, so streets will develop fairly close to shore... If the wind trajectory can back into a 350 type direction as opposed to all the way around to 290, you have a decent shot at being clipped on the outer cape by a band. In fact, looking at the QPF on the 18z GFS, it's printing out measurable in orientation down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Thanks. The rule of thumb from wind is simple. But the mixing down of wind from above is a little more complicated. Is it just that the surface is that much warmer than the cold air rushing in above. Creating a steep lapse rate? Allowing for winds from above to mix down? Differential thickness advection does cool from the top down, and when that occurs, parcels will lift because the lapse rate exceeds 9.8C/km in the vertical. Air rises, air must descend to compensate, as mass is never lost or destroyed in the system. But if the wind above is moving laterally are some velocity, that momentum is conserved when the downward compensating mass is delivered. Hence the Met expression "momentum transfer" - I'm sure you've had to have learned of this in the past. Some simple differentials can describe this mathematically, but it's also intuitive in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The point here is at 7 days out..we're seeing all guidance trend colder and wintrier..as it should given the blocking and -NAO. This can and probably will morph into a fairly significant early season winter event for all of SNE..even the coast How much snow are we looking at down here, any predictions yet? We might see our yearly climo snowfall here before Jan 1!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Blocking...ftw not to be a douche but there really isn't a lot of blocking there, per se - there is a nice west-based EPO ridge that's blocking, sure, but mostly what that image shows is above normal heights. The isopleths are actually not that curvilinear in construct, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Looks like it might get a bit blustery. Always nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 not to be a douche but there really isn't a lot of blocking there, per se - there is a nice west-based EPO ridge that's blocking, sure, but mostly what that image shows is above normal heights. The isopleths are actually not that curvilinear in construct, though Over the Aletuins and Greenland sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Great lesson on the Euro op and ensembles about the importance of whether the NAO is west based or east based. While the op Euro shows nice NAO ridging... it's not nice for us! It's possible we see the ridging retrograde or set up more over Greenland than Iceland. Still 200+ hours to go but right now it looks like our winter threat near the 28th may be a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 West is best, But i hear you can't get a cutter with a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Here is the Eastern thread and you posted in it. Kevin had cancelled the Windex that morning, they never work out, then in the afternoon was chucking them in everyone's eye. http://www.easternus...d/page__st__580 Cool thread to go back and read... one of my favoite events of the last few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Probably good snow numbers, him 66, me 55 44 here Dryslut is 77?!?!?!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Great lesson on the Euro op and ensembles about the importance of whether the NAO is west based or east based. While the op Euro shows nice NAO ridging... it's not nice for us! It's possible we see the ridging retrograde or set up more over Greenland than Iceland. Still 200+ hours to go but right now it looks like our winter threat near the 28th may be a cutter. Ride the KFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 44 here Dryslut is 77?!?!?!!! lol, My age would make bad snow numbers here 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 lol, My age would make bad snow numbers here 55 Ah, got it backwards. Things are setting up pretty nicely for the first part of Dec methinks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Ah, got it backwards. Things are setting up pretty nicely for the first part of Dec methinks... Yeah, Me and the sultan are same ol same, I like early Dec as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Yeah, Me and the sultan are same ol same, I like early Dec as well Sultan of Social Security? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 I saw a def sign of winter earlier today. I had to head back to Leominster this afternoon for conferences and I was on Rte 2 East going through Westminster. There is an area where the road cts into a hill and the folks put crushed rock along the side of the hill. This is north facing and is somewhat shaded. At 3:15PM, the frost from this morning was still there. Never got sun, never melted. Schweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Sultan of Social Security? Circle of Depends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 We are starting to get some frost in the ground here now with these continuous teen's low 20's nights and the high 30's low 40's days, Frost is hanging around on the shade and north facing sides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Sultan of Social Security? Circle of Depends lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Circle of Depends Duke of Diapers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 I saw a def sign of winter earlier today. I had to head back to Leominster this afternoon for conferences and I was on Rte 2 East going through Westminster. There is an area where the road cts into a hill and the folks put crushed rock along the side of the hill. This is north facing and is somewhat shaded. At 3:15PM, the frost from this morning was still there. Never got sun, never melted. Schweet We are starting to get some frost in the ground here now with these continuous teen's low 20's nights and the high 30's low 40's days, Frost is hanging around on the shade and north facing sides Whoomp...dere it is... I also had frost on my car in the lot at 8:20... First time this year (usually in a garage) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Duke of Diapers. You will understand this soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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