moneypitmike Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Well, time to refresh the banter thread as we are officially not in October nor early November. The true torch is short-lived and then just mild. But, it looks like the gfs is cooking something for around Thanksgiving. Nothing like a stormy turkey day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Maybe scooter can tell us if the euro ensembles are hinting at something around that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 8, 2012 Author Share Posted November 8, 2012 Maybe scooter can tell us if the euro ensembles are hinting at something around that time frame. I'm sure he will--and hopefully have encouring things to say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I'm sure he will--and hopefully have encouring things to say! We've been out here 5 years and I don't recall any accumulating snow in November - is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 GFS keeps any storms W of NE through 384hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I mentioned a small chance of something near or after d10 in the previous thread, but it could easily be rain or miss. Otherwise, hit the snooze button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Any chance some blocking develops at the end of the euro ensembles with some hint of an east coast trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I mentioned a small chance of something near or after d10 in the previous thread, but it could easily be rain or miss. Otherwise, hit the snooze button. Agreed. Maybe a transient split flow around day 7 with a reasonable chance that something comes out of the southern stream. How it materializes up this way would be anyone's guess, but Canada doesn't look too promising at the moment. I'm in the warm early winter camp, but hanging my hat on the idea that these nino-esque signals will return at some point down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 That's one heck of a MJO signal in the CHI fields. Notice ALL modeling was wrong with weakening the wave as some us warned would happen. The wave clearly is and has been under-represented. Recent East-Asian torque has ignited a wave 1 response and a possible Aleutian High / warming in the lower-mid stratosphere in days 6-10. This is no 2011-12 winter coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 That's one heck of a MJO signal in the CHI fields. Notice ALL modeling was wrong with weakening the wave as some us warned would happen. The wave clearly is and has been under-represented. Recent East-Asian torque has ignited a wave 1 response and a possible Aleutian High / warming in the lower-mid stratosphere in days 6-10. This is no 2011-12 winter coming... Talk dirty to me, please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 That's one heck of a MJO signal in the CHI fields. Notice ALL modeling was wrong with weakening the wave as some us warned would happen. The wave clearly is and has been under-represented. Recent East-Asian torque has ignited a wave 1 response and a possible Aleutian High / warming in the lower-mid stratosphere in days 6-10. This is no 2011-12 winter coming... It's definitely going nuts in the more unfavorable areas right now, but a heck of an Aleutian ridge forms. Hopefully the plots and the Roundy plots are right with trying to slowy shift it east near 12/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 We've been out here 5 years and I don't recall any accumulating snow in November - is that right? 2005ish we had a nice Thanksgiving day storm But 1989 had a great one (I think that was the year) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 2005ish we had a nice Thanksgiving day storm But 1989 had a great one (I think that was the year) We had been in a bit of a November snow drought until this storm (well except for GC which got the shaft). 2005 had the Thanksgiving morning event, and 2002 had a very nice storm the day before Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 We had been in a bit of a November snow drought until this storm (well except for GC which got the shaft). 2005 had the Thanksgiving morning event, and 2002 had a very nice storm the day before Thanksgiving. That 2002 storm kicked off an epic winter around here with 9.5". I don't think it snowed at the coast in that one though did it Will? This storm was sort of the opposite in some sense. I got 5" this time. I hope moneypitmike is okay.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 We had been in a bit of a November snow drought until this storm (well except for GC which got the shaft). 2005 had the Thanksgiving morning event, and 2002 had a very nice storm the day before Thanksgiving. Didnt we have a good one back in the 90's? I remember the Pats played the thanksgiving game, maybe it was the 02 one your talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Talk dirty to me, please.... I'll never understand this subforum. It's definitely going nuts in the more unfavorable areas right now, but a heck of an Aleutian ridge forms. Hopefully the plots and the Roundy plots are right with trying to slowy shift it east near 12/1 The Roundy plots have been kicking ass and so have their new experimental products. I agree 100% with their MJO forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I'll never understand this subforum. The Roundy plots have been kicking ass and so have their new experimental products. I agree 100% with their MJO forecast. The Roundy site is one of those sights where you can weenie out a bit trying to figure out what the stuff is. I like it. I only use it for my own personal amusement, but it's a good too I suppose for long range people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Didnt we have a good one back in the 90's? I remember the Pats played the thanksgiving game, maybe it was the 02 one your talking about. The 1990s had two minor events before Thanksgiving. 1994 had a windex event the day before Thanksgiving which gave interior spots a white Thanksgiving and 1996 had a rain changing to snow event before ending on the day before Thanksgiving as well. 1989 of course had the big one on Thanksgiving day. You are probably thinking of the 2002 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 We had been in a bit of a November snow drought until this storm (well except for GC which got the shaft). 2005 had the Thanksgiving morning event, and 2002 had a very nice storm the day before Thanksgiving. 1986 & 87 both had nice storms right around Veteran's Day. I think the '87 one was a little bigger so maybe we are starting a new trend? lol I just wish it wasn't getting so warm next week or else we could have made a run at a record for longest snow on ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 1986 & 87 both had nice storms right around Veteran's Day. I think the '87 one was a little bigger so maybe we are starting a new trend? lol I just wish it wasn't getting so warm next week or else we could have made a run at a record for longest snow on ground. The 1980s had a lot of November snow events....didn't work out so well for the rest of the months that decade, lol. Terrible snow decade overall, but November was good. It started with a big event in mid November 1980 and ended with the Thanksgiving storm 1989...1985, 1986, and 1987 all saw significant November snow events too. The 1985 storm happened on T-day as well...it turned to ice here after starting as several inches of snow. We lost power at my grandmas house but luckily not until the food was nearly done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Also even if it was staying cold next week, it would be hard to keep this snow pack all the way through until December to try and break snow pack length records. Its just still a bit too early for sustained snow pack here. Climo is still like 50F for a high right now...you could have a chilly airmass next week and still have highs in the 40-45F range which will steadily eat away at the pack. You really need to lay it down after the 20th to have a chance to keep it going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Measurable IMBY for November is a good signal. >2 inches 1997, 2002, 2004, 2012. 2002 and 2004 were excellent snow years and 1997 is complained about alot but it was a steroidal nino and imho if it weren't for that we'd have rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Also even if it was staying cold next week, it would be hard to keep this snow pack all the way through until December to try and break snow pack length records. Its just still a bit too early for sustained snow pack here. Climo is still like 50F for a high right now...you could have a chilly airmass next week and still have highs in the 40-45F range which will steadily eat away at the pack. You really need to lay it down after the 20th to have a chance to keep it going. Oh sure but at least we'd have a start and if it was running cooler than it will be. I was also talking about trace or better too, That's easier to do if you have good retention rates like I usually do. Back in 1997 I started a Trace or better stretch on 11/13 that ran into February for 99 days. In 2001 though, I had a 110 day stretch of 1" or more that started 12/9 and ended 3/28. Trace or better lasted till 4/12 or 125 days. I didn't see any really long stretches prior to that - there were some that were interupted though like '95-'96. That one would have been huge if we didn't have as many warm spells as we did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Measurable IMBY for November is a good signal. >2 inches 1997, 2002, 2004, 2012. 2002 and 2004 were excellent snow years and 1997 is complained about alot but it was a steroidal nino and imho if it weren't for that we'd have rocked. 1986 and 1987 worked out too even though the decade was garbage. 1989 not so much. Back this way, November snow is generally good too...all those years you listed but we could add on 1996, 1995, and 2005. '96-'97 wasn't a classic great winter, but it had the bomb at the end (and back here we had the Cantore thundersnow storm in December '96) and 2005-2006 was meh but had the great Dec 9th bomb. I don't need to speak for 1995-1996. The only true dead ratter here (since I've been here) with a good November snow event was 1991-1992. I don't think BOS got anything out of that one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Oh sure but at least we'd have a start and if it was running cooler than it will be. I was also talking about trace or better too, That's easier to do if you have good retention rates like I usually do. Back in 1999 I started a Trace or better stretch on 11/13 that ran into February for 99 days. In 2001 though, I had a 110 day stretch of 1" or more that started 12/9 and ended 3/28. Trace or better lasted till 4/12 or 125 days. I didn't see any really long stretches prior to that - there were some that were interupted though like '95-'96. That one would have been huge if we didn't have as many warm spells as we did. Are you sure you got the year right? That was just a horrifically brutal December...torch and snowless. Dec 99 that is. But December 1998 wasn't good either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Are you sure you got the year right? That was just a horrifically brutal December...torch and snowless. Dec 99 that is. But December 1998 wasn't good either. Yeah - scratch that. It was 1997. 11/13/1997 - 2/19/1998. Thanks for catching that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Yeah - scratch that. It was 1997. 11/13/1997 - 2/19/1998. Thanks for catching that! Oh ok, yeah 1997 would have done it. We didn't make it in 1997 because there was an early December 1997 event that refreshed your snow when we were just about totally melted out here. The storm got crushed to the south but I remember CT getting like 3-5" of snow. The snow came as close as about 10 miles south of here. I saw cars with 2-3" of snow on them driving from the south. We did have snow for a long time though after the 12/23 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Also even if it was staying cold next week, it would be hard to keep this snow pack all the way through until December to try and break snow pack length records. Its just still a bit too early for sustained snow pack here. Climo is still like 50F for a high right now...you could have a chilly airmass next week and still have highs in the 40-45F range which will steadily eat away at the pack. You really need to lay it down after the 20th to have a chance to keep it going. I was thinking something similar with regards to Westchester. The high today is going to be around 43F here in Dobbs Ferry, which is almost 15F below average. However, the snowpack is still being decimated by temperatures this "warm." That just shows how anomalous this event truly was. To receive 8" here when the average high is around 57F is just unreal. Ditto for the 10/29 storm last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Oh ok, yeah 1997 would have done it. We didn't make it in 1997 because there was an early December 1997 event that refreshed your snow when we were just about totally melted out here. The storm got crushed to the south but I remember CT getting like 3-5" of snow. The snow came as close as about 10 miles south of here. I saw cars with 2-3" of snow on them driving from the south. We did have snow for a long time though after the 12/23 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 November events in my life time in cen tral NJ were (from what I remember) late november 2002 in which there was a coating on the hills in my town... prior to that we had an event in mid-november 1997 that dumped a couple of inches, I believe it was a very localized event http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1996/us1114.php Then late November 1995 dropped about 3" as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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