chubbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Total at hour 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 My personal rule of thumb for the NAM QPF during a coastal event is to cut its totals in half, if not more. It's done me well for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I WISH it wasn't but its probably definately overdoing things, we'll see if GFS amps it up. It just stalls the low and keeps throwing bands and bands of heavy precip over our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 wow, 18z nam dumps lots of precip. here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 this seems like the typical 18z bonkers run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/265912293961891840/photo/1 Veering away? This is the nastiest run of a US model yet. Major I-95 snow right into Sandy inland areas. Coast rakesd.pic.twitter.com/pUWeikjU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 this seems like the typical 18z bonkers run. Shhhhhhh..........don't ruin "the moment". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 this seems like the typical 18z bonkers run. Haha, If you ignore the precip amounts it def was colder plus overall the track was better for snow in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Hello? When did you start at Mount Holly? I don't believe I know you. Welcome to that area if recently. I was a SCEP here last summer-fall and got placed here as a meteorological intern this summer. Thanks for the welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I know we're not in storm mode, but try to keep this for weather analysis only and head to the banter thread with banter. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Total at hour 39 Look at the beautiful banana high in Canada. I dont think i saw that all last year or the year before that lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F06%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=033&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Ignoring the copious amounts of QPF, the NAM does show the potential for strong forcing on the west side of the low..basically strong QG forcing. Pretty cool stuff. You wrap the warmer around, squeeze the gradient, and then lift it. Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 this seems like the typical 18z bonkers run. i think we all need a 0z model runs conformation at this point. tonight will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Coast get abused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 could we actually be looking at near blizzard conditions less the temps considering the potential snowfall rates and wind gusts around PHL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Winter Weather Advisories coming out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 could we actually be looking at near blizzard conditions less the temps considering the potential snowfall rates and wind gusts around PHL? Temps no longer part of the criteria for Blizzard Warning: "A Blizzard Warning is issued when sustained or gusty winds of 35 mph or more are expected to reduce visibility at or below a quarter of a mile due to falling and/or blowing snow for at least three hours." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 New event. Wind Advisory from 11/7/2012 6:00 AM to 11/8/2012 6:00 AM EST for Philadelphia County. More information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I was a SCEP here last summer-fall and got placed here as a meteorological intern this summer. Thanks for the welcome. Great! I know Tony, Mike, Lee (tell him I miss Baton Rouge too), and all the rest, so was surprised earlier when you issued the daily briefing. Good to see another local Met on the board. Back to topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 High Wind Warning for the coast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Anyone know if Mount Holly will be producing their expected snowfall map, or is that down because of the comm issue? I just went to their site and the maps are blank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Anyone know if Mount Holly will be producing their expected snowfall map, or is that down because of the comm issue? I just went to their site and the maps are blank. The page is up for me, but I don't think the map comes out until the actual warnings/advisories come out. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/StormTotalSnow/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 What is Philadelphia's all-time Nov snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Anyone know if Mount Holly will be producing their expected snowfall map, or is that down because of the comm issue? I just went to their site and the maps are blank. I doubt they release something until 0z tonight, gonna be hard to make a forecast when I-95 could see an anywhere from 1"-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 HPC not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I doubt they release something until 0z tonight, gonna be hard to make a forecast when I-95 could see an anywhere from 1"-9". If you stretch it to the latest NAM and the 12Z NOGAPS it could be anywhere from 0 to 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 If you stretch it to the latest NAM and the 12Z NOGAPS it could be anywhere from 0 to 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 HPC not buying it. http://www.hpc.ncep....psnow_gt_04.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 HPC not buying it. Good luck with that.....I don't think there is a single model that even supports this solution at the moment.EDIT: That map is for day 2. This is the correct map which is more reasonable, but still conservative IMO. I'd throw a small band of MDT around I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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