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Late October/Early November disco and banter thread


CoastalWx

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Speaking of upslope...Meso-scale models signaling decent upslope this weekend from Sandy remnants...Cpick has been all over this for like a week, haha.

NAM showing up to 0.67" QPF over the northern Green upslope region this weekend... should whiten the hills nicely and even bring snow showers to the mountain valleys at night.

Thanks for the update PF; 2/3 of an inch, that’s starting to move past junkboard territory into rock ski territory. Accumulations this weekend will definitely have to be watched.

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Guys ...missing the point. Same of these runs are "that" close to renewing a CF threat to a highly tortured and beleaguered area of the east coast.

Even NCEP's showing that concern - If that Euro run phased 20 minutes sooner, you'd have a coastal bomb cutting NW toward NYC!

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Guys ...missing the point. Same of these runs are "that" close to renewing a CF threat to a highly tortured and beleaguered area of the east coast.

Even NCEP's showing that concern - If that Euro run phased 20 minutes sooner, you'd have a coastal bomb cutting NW toward NYC!

There is concern for the LI sound I think. But, considering what the went through, that would be a walk in the park. But anyways, its just too early to get specific. They certainly do not need that.

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There is concern for the LI sound I think. But, considering what the went through, that would be a walk in the park. But anyways, its just too early to get specific. They certainly do not need that.

the coast dune protecting barrier is toast, will not take much to cause problems but not seeing this being a bomb or slow mover yet. Modeling getting deeper is concerning but way too early to get excited. The hype happens it seems after every superstorm , 78.93 come to mind. The did you hear another one is coming already started today.
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When the hell is the NWS gonna fix the problem with the server? It doesn't take 5 days to fix a phone cable

YES IS DOES. You can thank my employer for outsourcing jobs and not having a tested buckup. It's a nightmare in work. Management links down which renders troubleshooting, software to fix PVC's to network routers useless. West St., Broad St. in NYC (no surprise flooded) The NWS page might be down for awhile but thats the least of the problems.

That's hogwash (fiber cut-commercial phone co.)

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As someone said earlier, now everyone thinks that if a model has it 10 days out it must be right.

Met on one of the national news stations during dinner, I'm almost sure it was CNN, brought up the possibility that there could be 65 mph winds with the storm next week with this "Nor'easter". I cringed when I heard that type of hype this far out. It isn't going to help any of the poor people in NJ and NY to start worrying about a 'possible' storm at this point and to bring up those type of wind speeds was insane.

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Met on one of the national news stations during dinner, I'm almost sure it was CNN, brought up the possibility that there could be 65 mph winds with the storm next week with this "Nor'easter". I cringed when I heard that type of hype this far out. It isn't going to help any of the poor people in NJ and NY to start worrying about a 'possible' storm at this point and to bring up those type of wind speeds was insane.

Yes, the media does "hype" events. Nevertheless, if a couple models show a big storm, it's discussed here. And the truth is, media mets usually don't mention threats that show up a week away. There's a fine line between hyping, and giving out information of possible weather events.In fact, when people are recovering from disasters, and even when they are not, it would be beneficial if 7-10 day models could be discussed as possibilities, but not forecasts. We knew about Sandy as a possible historic storm before mets ever mentioned it on the air.

It's about education. 10 days before Sandy hit, mets could not go on the air and say there may be a disaster, because if it didn't happen, they wold be viewed as hypsters or inept. Yet they knew it was a possibility. It's fun for people to comment that mets get paid for being wrong all the time, so they end up being hesitant to bring up possibilities in forecasts.

So if there are a couple models that show a strong storm, mets ought to be able to forecast that some models are hinting at a strong storm. It may not pan out. Reality is that most people check the weather infrequently, and if they hear that there's a possible storm, and it doesn't happen, they figure it's best to ignore medium range forecasts.

To say that a big storm is happening this far out is insane, but to mention it as a possibility is responsible.

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Yes, the media does "hype" events. Nevertheless, if a couple models show a big storm, it's discussed here. And the truth is, media mets usually don't mention threats that show up a week away. There's a fine line between hyping, and giving out information of possible weather events.In fact, when people are recovering from disasters, and even when they are not, it would be beneficial if 7-10 day models could be discussed as possibilities, but not forecasts. We knew about Sandy as a possible historic storm before mets ever mentioned it on the air.

It's about education. 10 days before Sandy hit, mets could not go on the air and say there may be a disaster, because if it didn't happen, they wold be viewed as hypsters or inept. Yet they knew it was a possibility. It's fun for people to comment that mets get paid for being wrong all the time, so they end up being hesitant to bring up possibilities in forecasts.

So if there are a couple models that show a strong storm, mets ought to be able to forecast that some models are hinting at a strong storm. It may not pan out. Reality is that most people check the weather infrequently, and if they hear that there's a possible storm, and it doesn't happen, they figure it's best to ignore medium range forecasts.

To say that a big storm is happening this far out is insane, but to mention it as a possibility is responsible.

AMAZING POST. Seriously this is the best post of the year. There is a difference betwee hype and awareing people of a potential storm in the Day 7 range. All the mets. need to do is really explain how model accuracy at that point is low but they want to give people a heads up anyway. I honestly think that it would be a great thing if mets. started doing that. As bad as models are at the 7-10 day range, once they get to Day 6-7 you start to get a good feel at the wave length pattern.

Isn't the whole point of a 7 or 10 day forecast on the news to be as accurate as possible. Meteorologists are too 'scared' to put their name out there and mention storm possibilities on 7-10 day forecasts so instead they just make it as bland as possible. What exactly is the point to them then if they're not mentioning possibilities? The models go out to 7-10 days and its about DAMN time that the non weather-geek public get a better idea of what might happen a week from now.

That being said I do agree that if mets. start doing this they also need to explain model accuracy thoroughly to the public.

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AMAZING POST. Seriously this is the best post of the year. There is a difference betwee hype and awareing people of a potential storm in the Day 7 range. All the mets. need to do is really explain how model accuracy at that point is low but they want to give people a heads up anyway. I honestly think that it would be a great thing if mets. started doing that. As bad as models are at the 7-10 day range, once they get to Day 6-7 you start to get a good feel at the wave length pattern.

Isn't the whole point of a 7 or 10 day forecast on the news to be as accurate as possible. Meteorologists are too 'scared' to put their name out there and mention storm possibilities on 7-10 day forecasts so instead they just make it as bland as possible. What exactly is the point to them then if they're not mentioning possibilities? The models go out to 7-10 days and its about DAMN time that the non weather-geek public get a better idea of what might happen a week from now.

That being said I do agree that if mets. start doing this they also need to explain model accuracy thoroughly to the public.

it was a good post, yes, Amazing post.. not sure, go back and read some of CTBLIZZ posts.. if you want amazing.. that's the way to go.

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I heard one of my MET MAJOR friends say they heard 70s next week with a huge tropical rainstorm...then heard someone else say they heard a snowstorm for the same time. laugh.png You just have to laugh. I would expect this from the public, not from met majors though.

I can understand the publics confusion however. When Bruchard puts out 60-70 and wind/rain then other mets call for a cold rain then other mets call for a chance of snow for interior SNE with accumulation it can get confusing to say the least.

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Now it looks like a brutal mid month warmup. Hope it's not long lasting..Last thing we need is cold in the west and a warm east in mid-late Nov..Ugh

That's been the signal for over a week. It will happen in some shape or form, however I like the ridging slowly shifting east. I think if we had that pattern in mid December, we would have the cold slide further east to give is SWFE and you pelt away.

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I think if the euro ensembles happened, we would see snow even towards Kevin land. A deepening low moving east and deformation zone nearby would do it. Of course, good luck locking in that for 7 days. We won't have a clue until early next week so let the model hallucinations begin.

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I think if the euro ensembles happened, we would see snow even towards Kevin land. A deepening low moving east and deformation zone nearby would do it. Of course, good luck locking in that for 7 days. We won't have a clue until early next week so let the model hallucinations begin.

Sssh don't tell Jerry. He's too busy being grumpy and nasty twds me
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