DaculaWeather Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 And if they are common, maybe that's the whole problem. No one paid any attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 And if they are common, maybe that's the whole problem. No one paid any attention. You're joking, right? No one paid any attention? Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 My point is the people in charge up there didn't seen to take it as seriously as they should have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 My point is the people in charge up there didn't seen to take it as seriously as they should have. Certain individuals may not have taken it as seriously, yes. By no means were all officials confused. The majority knew what was going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Certain individuals may not have taken it as seriously, yes. By no means were all officials confused. The majority knew what was going on. You mean certain individuals in the biggest city? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Exactly. I think all the forecasters on the front lines did an outstanding job and my hat is off to you. I mean that. I think the problem started at the top which caused confusion to a situation that needed order. I've watched storms for 57 years now and have to say this is the first time I remember such confusion. I didn't see any changes in the advisories that would create confusion. The wind/surge messages were consistent and strongly worded through landfall. I'm not sure how any other message was or could have been relayed to the public. The official statements were unambiguous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Maybe as a lay person I see it differently. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 And which one would strike more fear? I just want to get this straight - are you saying that the NWS should have knowingly made an incorrect forecast in order to scare people into taking shelter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 What? A Hurricane Warning is incorrect? You mean according to the technicalities of the core? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Reclasifying it extratropical just before landfall had no impact... repeat, NO IMPACT... on anyone. All evacuations and precautions which were effective were already long completed by then. Not the point...its not about the impact just before landfall. You are correct that all evacuations were complete prior to the reclassification but this about the impact during the days before landfall. We spent a lot of time convincing folks in Neptune Township that this was going to be bad and the storm surge would be record setting. The initial response from MANY people was "Its not going to be a hurricane when it gets here so its not going to be bad" or "There isn't even a hurricane warning, so it wont be a bad as Irene" Much of the problem on the Jersey Shore was that Irene was fresh in the minds of people so if Sandy isnt a hurricane and Irene was a hurricane, most people applied the logic that Sandy would not be as bad as Irene. Mt. Holly did an outstanding job getting out the message.....their storm updates were fabulous, but the NHC decision to base warning decisions on a prediction of extratropical transition defies logic. Its a bad idea predicting extratropical transition days in advance when it is going to happen so close to the coastline, and we all have seen NHC carry a storm as tropical in the north Atlantic which a much more non-tropical appearance than Sandy had at landfall. Bad decision by NHC....no convincing me otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 There has been stated over and over that it wasn't an unilateral decision from NHC. If people were comparing Sandy to Irene, they wouldn't have changed their mind with hurricane warnings of a cat 1 hurricane either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Maybe as a lay person I see it differently. Sorry I have to think "as a weather weenie" you see it differently. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Much of the problem on the Jersey Shore was that Irene was fresh in the minds of people so if Sandy isnt a hurricane and Irene was a hurricane, most people applied the logic that Sandy would not be as bad as Irene. Well, that's a misunderstanding of the public. Irene was, in my opinion, overhyped, and it actually WASN'T a hurricane when it reached NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I have to think "as a weather weenie" you see it differently. Sorry Maybe. But it's funny how all the mets think one way, and us "weenies" think another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Maybe. But it's funny how all the mets think one way, and us "weenies" think another. Well, I have yet to hear a single average Joe say a thing about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Its a bad idea predicting extratropical transition days in advance when it is going to happen so close to the coastline, and we all have seen NHC carry a storm as tropical in the north Atlantic which a much more non-tropical appearance than Sandy had at landfall. You might want to compare the imagery of Sandy AT LANDFALL to other storms before making that statement. It looked VERY extratropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Well, one just posted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Let's assume I am totally wrong and you are totally right. I'm good with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Well, one just posted... http://www.americanw...ost__p__1898343 He mentions Irene as being a big factor in that. Hurricanes historically have been grossly overhyped as they come up the coast, particularly on the Jersey shore. A certain meteorologist who's being evaluated by a poll in OT currently has probably at least slightly influenced that overhype, but regardless, the average so-called "hurricane" which comes up the coast and affects NJ is anything but. The track and structure of Sandy put it in a class all by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 You know as well as I do, people are going to wait if at all possible. I think all the talk about the transfer from the NHC to the local WFO's lead people to believe it wasn't going to be all that bad. The general public knew nothing of the transfer. You knew it and I knew it, but 99% of the public did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Reclasifying it extratropical just before landfall had no impact... repeat, NO IMPACT... on anyone. All evacuations and precautions which were effective were already long completed by then. ^^^^ this The people I've spoken to that were impacted along the shore stayed because they felt it was going to be similar to Irene, i.e. not very impactful. The intentional (IMHO) categorization of Irene as a hurricane when it was likely not led to the complacency of the public, and not anything related to what NHC/NWS did with Sandy, which I think was exemplary from both the NHC and the NWS offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Breaking: NHC Modifies Hurricane Warning Definition in Wake of Sandy http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/breaking-nhc-modifies-hurrican/2379553 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Breaking: NHC Modifies Hurricane Warning Definition in Wake of Sandy http://www.accuweath...urrican/2379553 and in the end it really is about warning people and not about debating and becoming bogged down with storm structure definition. Its simple common sense.....and apparently it has prevailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Wow... someone else agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Well.. glad we can stop arguing about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 and in the end it really is about warning people and not about debating and becoming bogged down with storm structure definition. Its simple common sense.....and apparently it has prevailed. yes I argued this same point. Kudos to all who sought this change. An announcement that sustained winds of 74 mph or higher are expected somewhere within the specified area in association with a tropical, sub-tropical, or post-tropical cyclone. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. The warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 My argument was that we don't currently know enough of the extraptropical transition timing for that NHC to be sure that Sandy wasn't going to be a hurricane at landfall, therefore they should have issued the warnings in the first place. it lasted tropical longer than expected, but did finally succome as the inner core convection was blown apart in the last hours before reaching the coast. However, if you didn't think it was going to be a big deal...you only have yourself to blame for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I can't wait till we get the first overwarned "hurricane" and the same people flip out over that. On the face it's probably a good policy though it seems to be fraught with possible issues. I think it's silly that so much of this focus has been on NHC anyway... there are lots of other officials in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Great Zo Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I can't wait till we get the first overwarned "hurricane" and the same people flip out over that. On the face it's probably a good policy though it seems to be fraught with possible issues. I am curious as to how it will be done from a technical standpoint, and especially if any of these changes will eventually translate to inland offices. This decision will affect far more than just the NHC product suite. It's probably the best possible call for the sake of both public awareness and scientific integrity, even if the name of the warning (in these rare cases) may not match the technical classification of the storm. I don't necessarily see how it will lead to overwarning, since the policy still only seems to cover storms of "hurricane" intensity (via surge and/or wind). The private sector articles written about this haven't been terribly specific at this point, but that's hardly their fault, since there has been no communication from the NWS with regards to this change. I think it's silly that so much of this focus has been on NHC anyway... there are lots of other officials in the process. I've continued to read posts and comments about this (here, on twitter, on blogs, etc) -- and I'm at the point of completely disregarding the opinions of anyone still going after NHC alone. That implies a complete lack of understanding of how the situation played out, and it's usually accompanied by a whole bunch of manufactured, misplaced indignation. I thought Knabb explained the warning challenges very eloquently and descriptively, but his comments don't seem to have attracted much attention. In fact, he flat-out foreshadowed today's news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Yeah, maybe you're right about 'overwarning' tho it seems it could leave the door open to lean toward a worst-case in any scenario. One of the larger problems with the warning system, i.e., tornadoes etc., is that there is perhaps too much false warning. Arguably, that was a problem here with Irene so recent in people's memories. But I, as you, don't completely know what this change entails as there are only a few small tidbits out there at this pt. One thing everyone who has been riding NHC for weeks has never addressed is what if anything would have changed. To me, it appears any differences if there was a hurricane warning would have been at the margins. Obviously saving any life etc is a good thing. But, looking at the demographics of who died and what caused death I'd be pretty leery of saying that a hurricane warning would have made a huge difference. Not to mention that the toll and ratio to population is pretty low given the historical nature and impact region to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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