CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I guess the EC has lost the consistency that has been rightly or wrongly lauded in this thread. Will be fascinating to see how this continues to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 While the Euro solution would spare most of New England from a truly damaging event... it would be a disaster for NYC with coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 While the Euro solution would spare most of New England from a truly damaging event... it would be a disaster for NYC with coastal flooding. yeah that would be a devasting scenario. really a lot of the mid-atlantic would get pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 so now there is more of a chance of it hitting the MA than there is a OTS solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 While the Euro solution would spare most of New England from a truly damaging event... it would be a disaster for NYC with coastal flooding. that might be the most damaging solution overall since it hits a large part of the i-95 corridor hard. The coastal flooding would rival or exceed Dec. 1992 and Ash Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Whats the rule of getting surface winds from 850mb winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z GEFS Seeing those members heading south is suggestive that this change on the Euro is bonafide. That said, I like the member that shoots the storm toward Africa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Add another solution into the mix, Going to be a couple more days for this to shake out Precisely. I maintain that it's going to be impossible to feel confident about any scenario until the Greater Antilles are done with her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Whats the rule of getting surface winds from 850mb winds? Wunderground has surface wind estimates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 snowshoe WV , may open season early on this run. would like to watch it from the 4500' foot bars at the summit Worth noting that Lake Erie surface temperatures are close to 60F... Lake Ontario in the 50s... if significant cold air crosses the lakes in the right direction... oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Whats the rule of getting surface winds from 850mb winds? I usually deduct 20% or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 what is with the winds, there? they're kinda meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 that might be the most damaging solution overall since it hits a large part of the i-95 corridor hard. The coastal flooding would rival or exceed Dec. 1992 and Ash Wednesday. I was thinking Ash Wednesday type although fetch was longer and tides higher but yea NJ gets smoked, not so sure about NYC, pretty far removed when winds die down, Euro verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Unprecedented? SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1813Z WED OCT 24 2012 DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM... ***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS*** WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... -------------------------------------- THE RELEASE SCHEDULE WILL BE EVALUATED AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 what is with the winds, there? they're kinda meh I think wundergrounds frictional effects algorithmic formula might be overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think wundergrounds frictional effects algorithmic formula might be overdone. IDK...the Euro's sfc wind maps did quite well with Irene I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think wundergrounds frictional effects algorithmic formula might be overdone. moderate gales from a 935mb low would be pretty hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 IDK...the Euro's sfc wind maps did quite well with Irene I thought. Its not the Euros maps though 935 out over the GS and the winds are below Cane sustained? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 IDK...the Euro's sfc wind maps did quite well with Irene I thought. Not at this range they didn't, they showed 95-105 mph for NYC/LI because the MSLP was way overdone and the overally strength of storm. I still think this is more of a major coastal flooding issue than it is a catatostrophic wind event. I don't think anyone is seeing sustained hurricane winds with this as of now, if this was a CATIII storm right now I might feel differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think wundergrounds frictional effects algorithmic formula might be overdone. It has absolutely nothing to do with wunderground... 10 meter winds come directly from the ECMWF model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Its not the Euros maps though 935 out over the GS and the winds are below Cane sustained? Yeah that would see odd. Looking at wind maps this far out anyways probably isn't a good idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Worth noting that Lake Erie surface temperatures are close to 60F... Lake Ontario in the 50s... if significant cold air crosses the lakes in the right direction... oh boy From KBUF, Lake Erie is at 57° and Ontario at 58° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not at this range they didn't, they showed 95-105 mph for NYC/LI because the MSLP was way overdone and the overally strength of storm. I still think this is more of a major coastal flooding issue than it is a catatostrophic wind event. I don't think anyone is seeing sustained hurricane winds with this as of now, if this was a CATIII storm right now I might feel differently. Yeah coastal flooding certainly would be a major, major issue with this, especially when taking high tides into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah coastal flooding certainly would be a major, major issue with this, especially when taking high tides into consideration. The good news is most people's boats are now out of the water at least so thats one sector of marine interests that might get off easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The good news is most people's boats are now out of the water at least so thats one sector of marine interests that might get off easier. I wonder how many crazy people will attempt to surf. Although being end of October not sure how many people usually surf that time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The Euro has evidently picked up the same westward jolt from the new estimates of the intensity of the Greenland block -- but at ever-shortening time frames one is well advised to adopt a model compromise, if you like the Euro a lot go 60-20-20 which takes a 942 mb low over NYC, if you like the others a bit more (40-30-30) then your track is central LI to w CT at 944 mbs. Those are not currently on any given model but would be high impact for southern New England. Too soon to say all clear but with this trend the other end of the spectrum is a NC landfall I suppose -- perhaps Hazel was the right analogue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I wonder how many crazy people will attempt to surf. Although being end of October not sure how many people usually surf that time of year. Charlie don't surf. Seriously though--it would be great to witness what the wave height might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The Euro has evidently picked up the same westward jolt from the new estimates of the intensity of the Greenland block -- but at ever-shortening time frames one is well advised to adopt a model compromise, if you like the Euro a lot go 60-20-20 which takes a 942 mb low over NYC, if you like the others a bit more (40-30-30) then your track is central LI to w CT at 944 mbs. Those are not currently on any given model but would be high impact for southern New England. Too soon to say all clear but with this trend the other end of the spectrum is a NC landfall I suppose -- perhaps Hazel was the right analogue. I think that is a fantastic point. Though, with nearly 5 days to go, the time frame is still pretty long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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