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This thing won't be interesting for a few days. Lots of flooding likely in the Jamaica and Eastern Cuba, then will intensify over the Bahamas Thursday/Friday. After that, who knows? Could go out to sea, could head to the Maritimes, or could be a Hazel-redux. Personally, I think the Maritimes are the most likely landing spot, but I put out about a 25% chance of Hazel Pt 2 today.

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This thing won't be interesting for a few days. Lots of flooding likely in the Jamaica and Eastern Cuba, then will intensify over the Bahamas Thursday/Friday. After that, who knows? Could go out to sea, could head to the Maritimes, or could be a Hazel-redux. Personally, I think the Maritimes are the most likely landing spot, but I put out about a 25% chance of Hazel Pt 2 today.

25% what? The odds of that happening are less than 5% and probably closer to 1% right now...out to sea is the most likely track right now because it is the climo track.

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Adam., are you a Josh tropical purist, or does the post tropical MegaDeth storm of the Euro (and Canadian is Detroit Rock City) appeal to you?

Personal preference, I'll take post tropical fun for New England/NY/Mid Atlantic over a fish escaping East.

I like all kinds of impact weather.

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25% what? The odds of that happening are less than 5% and probably closer to 1% right now...out to sea is the most likely track right now because it is the climo track.

25% that Hazel Part 2 will happen. The man is a professional and knows what he is talking about.

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25% what? The odds of that happening are less than 5% and probably closer to 1% right now...out to sea is the most likely track right now because it is the climo track.

Why in the world would you be using a climo track right now? We've got a good idea of the envelope of H5 solutions 7 days out. Using a climo track at this point is just admitting you aren't a good forecaster.

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Why in the world would you be using a climo track right now? We've got a good idea of the envelope of H5 solutions 7 days out. Using a climo track at this point is just admitting you aren't a good forecaster.

climo tracks makes sense on an forecast over 180 hrs out, consequently the GFS ensabmles are showing good agregment of this climo track for storms that form in the caribbean in october.

http://www.wundergro...9_ensmodel.html

Any OP should be tossed beyond 120 hrs.

Here is october and november climo:

october.gif

november.gif

Not suprising the GFS almost exactly agrees with the NOV climo track given its late october.

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This thing won't be interesting for a few days. Lots of flooding likely in the Jamaica and Eastern Cuba, then will intensify over the Bahamas Thursday/Friday. After that, who knows? Could go out to sea, could head to the Maritimes, or could be a Hazel-redux. Personally, I think the Maritimes are the most likely landing spot, but I put out about a 25% chance of Hazel Pt 2 today.

What do you mean by "Hazel 2"-- a Cat 4 landfall in the Carolinas? Or just a 'cane somewhere on the East Coast? Or...?

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climo tracks makes sense on an forecast over 180 hrs out, consequently the GFS ensabmles are showing good agregment of this climo track for storms that form in the caribbean in october.

http://www.wundergro...9_ensmodel.html

Any OP should be tossed beyond 120 hrs.

Here is october and november climo:

october.gif

november.gif

Not suprising the GFS almost exactly agrees with the NOV climo track given its late october.

The 6z GFS is the NOV climo track almost to a tee.

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Sorry, yes. From a tropical standpoint, I'm not sure this gets higher than a Cat 1. I was talking about the baroclinic enhancement afterwards.

In other words this will be lucky to be anything other than a slopgyre...tropical wise...;)

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Why are you ignoring the Euro ensemble?

I am not they are much further east compared to the OP model when the GFS OP is much closer to its own ensebmle mean. At this point the right move is to throw out the euro all together and lean more on climo. NWS upton agrees:

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WEIGHED FORECAST MORE TOWARDS GFS/GFS

ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE HAVING ISSUES WITH

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. GIVEN THE

QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF THE INTERACTION AND THAT IT IS A MINORITY

SOLUTION...HAVE DISCOUNTED BOTH THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF IN THIS TIME

FRAME.

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I am not they are much further east compared to the OP model when the GFS OP is much closer to its own ensebmle mean. At this point the right move is to throw out the euro all together and lean more on climo. NWS upton agrees:

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WEIGHED FORECAST MORE TOWARDS GFS/GFS

ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE HAVING ISSUES WITH

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. GIVEN THE

QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF THE INTERACTION AND THAT IT IS A MINORITY

SOLUTION...HAVE DISCOUNTED BOTH THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF IN THIS TIME

FRAME.

LOL. You are bad at forecasting. Go read the HPC discussion.

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VALID 12Z FRI OCT 26 2012 - 12Z MON OCT 29 2012

THE 00Z GEFS AND 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS DISPLAY BETTER

THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED LARGE SCALE FLOW FROM THE

ERN PAC THRU NOAM. AN ERN PAC RIDGE DOWNSTREAM FROM A CLOSED

LOW/TROF TO THE S OF THE ALEUTIANS SHOULD BUILD INTO THE WEST BY

DAYS 6-7 SUN-MON WHILE THE MEAN TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS INTO

S-CNTRL CANADA AS OF DAY 3 THU IS FCST TO PROGRESS INTO THE EAST

WHERE THE TROF MAY EVENTUALLY ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT IN RESPONSE

TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVER/NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXACT

DETAILS OF ERN NOAM EVOLUTION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD MAY PLAY A

SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF PSBL TROPICAL

DEVELOPMENT THAT MOST GUIDANCE EXPECTS TO TRACK NWD FROM THE

CARIBBEAN INTO THE WRN ATLC DURING THE SHORT-MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

THIS ISSUE IS QUICKLY BECOMING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY

FOR THE MEDR FCST.

COMPARISON OF OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE TO EACH OTHER AND

ENSEMBLES LEADS TO REMOVAL OF TWO SOLNS FROM CONSIDERATION FOR

THIS FCST. FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE 00Z RUN THE GFS AMPLIFIES A

WRN CANADA TROF INTO THE NRN CONUS BY DAY 6 SUN IN DIRECT CONTRAST

TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN RIDGE... LEADING TO AN EXCESSIVELY FLAT

OVERALL CONUS PATTERN THEREAFTER AND ULTIMATELY AN EXTREME EWD

SOLN FOR THE WRN ATLC SYSTEM. MEANWHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN BUILDS

THE ERN PAC RIDGE INTO WRN NOAM TOO QUICKLY AND SIMILAR TO YDAYS

00Z RUN SHOWS AN OUTLIER SEWD/DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM

CONUS TROF. THIS CAUSES THE CMC TO PULL THE WRN ATLC SYSTEM INTO

THE GRTLKS EARLIER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF OR SLOWER 00Z ECMWF. DEEP

TROFS ARE A COMMON BIAS IN THE CMC SO ITS ERN CONUS EVOLUTION IS

DISCOUNTED SO FAR. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE RIDGE BUILDING

OVER/NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE PERIOD MAY INCREASE

POTENTIAL FOR FLOW OVER THE WRN ATLC TO BE TURNED NWWD AROUND OR

AFTER THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

It is why they play the game. The uncertainty is part of the appeal.

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I am not they are much further east compared to the OP model when the GFS OP is much closer to its own ensebmle mean. At this point the right move is to throw out the euro all together and lean more on climo. NWS upton agrees:

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WEIGHED FORECAST MORE TOWARDS GFS/GFS

ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE HAVING ISSUES WITH

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. GIVEN THE

QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF THE INTERACTION AND THAT IT IS A MINORITY

SOLUTION...HAVE DISCOUNTED BOTH THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF IN THIS TIME

FRAME.

These are the key words in that disco...

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I am, upton, most of the mets on this forum? lol saying hazel part 2 is 25% likely is hype and bad forecasting.

Actually, saying that there is a 25% chance is good forecasting. This is a medium-range scenario with significant uncertainties (Greenland Blocking High strength, CONUS Trough strength, etc) and a good forecaster expresses such uncertainties. By saying 25%, he's saying there's a 75% chance that it doesn't happen, which is FAR from hype. Ignoring the Euro completely is actually bad forecasting because with an Alaskan-Arctic ridge/CONUS trough/Greenland High, it is a plausible solution. Is it the most likely solution? Probably not, but don't rule it out.

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HPC Is NOT ignoring the Euro!

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

959 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

VALID 12Z FRI OCT 26 2012 - 12Z MON OCT 29 2012

PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED ONE-PART 00Z/22 ECMWF AND TWO-PARTS 00Z/22 ECENS MEAN TO

UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7.

THERE ARE TWO MAJOR FEATURES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE INFLUENCING THE

FLOW- THE TROPICAL LOW EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD

TO THE BAHAMAS, AND THE AMPLIFYING POLAR JET OVER THE CENTRAL AND

EASTERN UNITED STATES. JUST HOW THESE FORCES INTERACT IS CRUCIAL,

BUT AT THE TIME RANGE AT HAND, PREDICTING THEIR DANCE IS DICEY AT

BEST. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT THE INCREASINGLY HYBRID CYCLONE OFF THE

EAST COAST, THOUGH NOT AS FAR OUT TO SEA AS THE GFS AND GEFS

MEMBERS. WILL COORDINATE WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR

THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERIOR IS

CONSIDERABLE, WITH MUCH OF THE NATION COOLING SUBSTANTIALLY. WEST

OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MARITIME POLAR AIR,

WITH A MIXTURE OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AND ARCTIC AIR TO THE EAST

OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

CISCO

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Discussion:

000

WTNT33 KNHC 221449

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012

1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.5N 78.0W

ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR

JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A

HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED

FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION

EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A

NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...

THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH JAMAICA TUESDAY NIGHT OR

EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE

DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR

TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT IS

APPROACHING JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER

AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA BY TUESDAY

NIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

Latest Satellite image:

post-1389-0-20449600-1350917610_thumb.pn

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012

1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED

SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE EXACT CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT THE

SYSTEM HAS CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS

INCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE OVERNIGHT. REFINEMENTS TO THE POSITION

COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY ONCE THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER

PLANE INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THE

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 230/4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS

CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS

ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD

CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CUBA

SHOULD PULL THE DEPRESSION NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND

EASTERN CUBA. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW VARYING SCENARIOS BY

THE END OF THE WEEK...THEY ALL AGREE ON A PERSISTENT NORTH-

NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY

NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE

FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN

FACT...THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN

BY AT LEAST 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON THE RAPID

INTENSIFICATION INDEX. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS

FAIRLY QUICK STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE

DEPRESSION COULD BE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE AS IT IS

APPROACHING JAMAICA. AFTER 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED

TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...AND NEARLY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS

SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE ON MORE HYBRID

CHARACTERISTICS...SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH AND

ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL STORM

BY DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 13.5N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

12H 23/0000Z 13.7N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 23/1200Z 14.3N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 24/0000Z 15.7N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 24/1200Z 17.4N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 25/1200Z 20.5N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND OVER CUBA

96H 26/1200Z 24.5N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

120H 27/1200Z 27.0N 73.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL

$$

FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

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