am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 This thing won't be interesting for a few days. Lots of flooding likely in the Jamaica and Eastern Cuba, then will intensify over the Bahamas Thursday/Friday. After that, who knows? Could go out to sea, could head to the Maritimes, or could be a Hazel-redux. Personally, I think the Maritimes are the most likely landing spot, but I put out about a 25% chance of Hazel Pt 2 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 This thing won't be interesting for a few days. Lots of flooding likely in the Jamaica and Eastern Cuba, then will intensify over the Bahamas Thursday/Friday. After that, who knows? Could go out to sea, could head to the Maritimes, or could be a Hazel-redux. Personally, I think the Maritimes are the most likely landing spot, but I put out about a 25% chance of Hazel Pt 2 today. 25% what? The odds of that happening are less than 5% and probably closer to 1% right now...out to sea is the most likely track right now because it is the climo track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Adam., are you a Josh tropical purist, or does the post tropical MegaDeth storm of the Euro (and Canadian is Detroit Rock City) appeal to you? Personal preference, I'll take post tropical fun for New England/NY/Mid Atlantic over a fish escaping East. I like all kinds of impact weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 25% what? The odds of that happening are less than 5% and probably closer to 1% right now...out to sea is the most likely track right now because it is the climo track. 25% that Hazel Part 2 will happen. The man is a professional and knows what he is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 25% what? The odds of that happening are less than 5% and probably closer to 1% right now...out to sea is the most likely track right now because it is the climo track. Why in the world would you be using a climo track right now? We've got a good idea of the envelope of H5 solutions 7 days out. Using a climo track at this point is just admitting you aren't a good forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Why in the world would you be using a climo track right now? We've got a good idea of the envelope of H5 solutions 7 days out. Using a climo track at this point is just admitting you aren't a good forecaster. climo tracks makes sense on an forecast over 180 hrs out, consequently the GFS ensabmles are showing good agregment of this climo track for storms that form in the caribbean in october. http://www.wundergro...9_ensmodel.html Any OP should be tossed beyond 120 hrs. Here is october and november climo: Not suprising the GFS almost exactly agrees with the NOV climo track given its late october. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 This thing won't be interesting for a few days. Lots of flooding likely in the Jamaica and Eastern Cuba, then will intensify over the Bahamas Thursday/Friday. After that, who knows? Could go out to sea, could head to the Maritimes, or could be a Hazel-redux. Personally, I think the Maritimes are the most likely landing spot, but I put out about a 25% chance of Hazel Pt 2 today. What do you mean by "Hazel 2"-- a Cat 4 landfall in the Carolinas? Or just a 'cane somewhere on the East Coast? Or...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 climo tracks makes sense on an forecast over 180 hrs out, consequently the GFS ensabmles are showing good agregment of this climo track for storms that form in the caribbean in october. http://www.wundergro...9_ensmodel.html Any OP should be tossed beyond 120 hrs. Why would you ignore the Euro ensemble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 What do you mean by "Hazel 2"-- a Cat 4 landfall in the Carolinas? Or just a 'cane somewhere on the East Coast? Or...? Sorry, yes. From a tropical standpoint, I'm not sure this gets higher than a Cat 1. I was talking about the baroclinic enhancement afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Why would you ignore the Euro ensemble? Can you give insight on individual Euro ensemble members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 climo tracks makes sense on an forecast over 180 hrs out, consequently the GFS ensabmles are showing good agregment of this climo track for storms that form in the caribbean in october. http://www.wundergro...9_ensmodel.html Any OP should be tossed beyond 120 hrs. Here is october and november climo: Not suprising the GFS almost exactly agrees with the NOV climo track given its late october. The 6z GFS is the NOV climo track almost to a tee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Sorry, yes. From a tropical standpoint, I'm not sure this gets higher than a Cat 1. I was talking about the baroclinic enhancement afterwards. In other words this will be lucky to be anything other than a slopgyre...tropical wise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 The 6z GFS is the NOV climo track almost to a tee. Why are you ignoring the Euro ensemble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Looking organized enough for recon today. (Hotlink- if it gets "hawt", I'll upload a gif for posterity) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Can you give insight on individual Euro ensemble members? About 5 members are more amped/farther west than the Euro op, most are between EC and Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 In other words this will be lucky to be anything other than a slopgyre...tropical wise... Yup, but of course, that isn't the interesting part of the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Why are you ignoring the Euro ensemble? I am not they are much further east compared to the OP model when the GFS OP is much closer to its own ensebmle mean. At this point the right move is to throw out the euro all together and lean more on climo. NWS upton agrees: FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WEIGHED FORECAST MORE TOWARDS GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE HAVING ISSUES WITH INTERACTIONS BETWEEN A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF THE INTERACTION AND THAT IT IS A MINORITY SOLUTION...HAVE DISCOUNTED BOTH THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 I am not they are much further east compared to the OP model when the GFS OP is much closer to its own ensebmle mean. At this point the right move is to throw out the euro all together and lean more on climo. NWS upton agrees: FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WEIGHED FORECAST MORE TOWARDS GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE HAVING ISSUES WITH INTERACTIONS BETWEEN A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF THE INTERACTION AND THAT IT IS A MINORITY SOLUTION...HAVE DISCOUNTED BOTH THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME. LOL. You are bad at forecasting. Go read the HPC discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 LOL. You are bad at forecasting. Go read the HPC discussion. I am, upton, most of the mets on this forum? lol saying hazel part 2 is 25% likely is hype and bad forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 VALID 12Z FRI OCT 26 2012 - 12Z MON OCT 29 2012THE 00Z GEFS AND 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS DISPLAY BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED LARGE SCALE FLOW FROM THE ERN PAC THRU NOAM. AN ERN PAC RIDGE DOWNSTREAM FROM A CLOSED LOW/TROF TO THE S OF THE ALEUTIANS SHOULD BUILD INTO THE WEST BY DAYS 6-7 SUN-MON WHILE THE MEAN TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS INTO S-CNTRL CANADA AS OF DAY 3 THU IS FCST TO PROGRESS INTO THE EAST WHERE THE TROF MAY EVENTUALLY ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVER/NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXACT DETAILS OF ERN NOAM EVOLUTION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD MAY PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF PSBL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THAT MOST GUIDANCE EXPECTS TO TRACK NWD FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE WRN ATLC DURING THE SHORT-MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THIS ISSUE IS QUICKLY BECOMING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MEDR FCST. COMPARISON OF OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE TO EACH OTHER AND ENSEMBLES LEADS TO REMOVAL OF TWO SOLNS FROM CONSIDERATION FOR THIS FCST. FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE 00Z RUN THE GFS AMPLIFIES A WRN CANADA TROF INTO THE NRN CONUS BY DAY 6 SUN IN DIRECT CONTRAST TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN RIDGE... LEADING TO AN EXCESSIVELY FLAT OVERALL CONUS PATTERN THEREAFTER AND ULTIMATELY AN EXTREME EWD SOLN FOR THE WRN ATLC SYSTEM. MEANWHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN BUILDS THE ERN PAC RIDGE INTO WRN NOAM TOO QUICKLY AND SIMILAR TO YDAYS 00Z RUN SHOWS AN OUTLIER SEWD/DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM CONUS TROF. THIS CAUSES THE CMC TO PULL THE WRN ATLC SYSTEM INTO THE GRTLKS EARLIER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF OR SLOWER 00Z ECMWF. DEEP TROFS ARE A COMMON BIAS IN THE CMC SO ITS ERN CONUS EVOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED SO FAR. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER/NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE PERIOD MAY INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR FLOW OVER THE WRN ATLC TO BE TURNED NWWD AROUND OR AFTER THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. It is why they play the game. The uncertainty is part of the appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I am not they are much further east compared to the OP model when the GFS OP is much closer to its own ensebmle mean. At this point the right move is to throw out the euro all together and lean more on climo. NWS upton agrees: FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WEIGHED FORECAST MORE TOWARDS GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE HAVING ISSUES WITH INTERACTIONS BETWEEN A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF THE INTERACTION AND THAT IT IS A MINORITY SOLUTION...HAVE DISCOUNTED BOTH THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME. These are the key words in that disco... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I am, upton, most of the mets on this forum? lol saying hazel part 2 is 25% likely is hype and bad forecasting. Actually, saying that there is a 25% chance is good forecasting. This is a medium-range scenario with significant uncertainties (Greenland Blocking High strength, CONUS Trough strength, etc) and a good forecaster expresses such uncertainties. By saying 25%, he's saying there's a 75% chance that it doesn't happen, which is FAR from hype. Ignoring the Euro completely is actually bad forecasting because with an Alaskan-Arctic ridge/CONUS trough/Greenland High, it is a plausible solution. Is it the most likely solution? Probably not, but don't rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 06Z Tracks and Intensity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 HPC Is NOT ignoring the Euro! PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 959 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012 VALID 12Z FRI OCT 26 2012 - 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 PRELIMINARY UPDATE... USED ONE-PART 00Z/22 ECMWF AND TWO-PARTS 00Z/22 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THERE ARE TWO MAJOR FEATURES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE INFLUENCING THE FLOW- THE TROPICAL LOW EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD TO THE BAHAMAS, AND THE AMPLIFYING POLAR JET OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. JUST HOW THESE FORCES INTERACT IS CRUCIAL, BUT AT THE TIME RANGE AT HAND, PREDICTING THEIR DANCE IS DICEY AT BEST. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT THE INCREASINGLY HYBRID CYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST, THOUGH NOT AS FAR OUT TO SEA AS THE GFS AND GEFS MEMBERS. WILL COORDINATE WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERIOR IS CONSIDERABLE, WITH MUCH OF THE NATION COOLING SUBSTANTIALLY. WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MARITIME POLAR AIR, WITH A MIXTURE OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AND ARCTIC AIR TO THE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 NHC has the Day 5 point at 27.0N 73.0W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Discussion: 000WTNT33 KNHC 221449 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 78.0W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH JAMAICA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT IS APPROACHING JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA Latest Satellite image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I did write up a little discussion on TD 18 and compared to Hazel in this dicussion for those that are interested. http://www.examiner.com/article/historic-storm-possible-early-next-week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Interesting that the NHC went ahead with TD status here without recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Looks like this was a Berg/Avila tandem in intiating advisories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE EXACT CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE OVERNIGHT. REFINEMENTS TO THE POSITION COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY ONCE THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 230/4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CUBA SHOULD PULL THE DEPRESSION NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW VARYING SCENARIOS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THEY ALL AGREE ON A PERSISTENT NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN FACT...THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN BY AT LEAST 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS FAIRLY QUICK STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE AS IT IS APPROACHING JAMAICA. AFTER 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...AND NEARLY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE ON MORE HYBRID CHARACTERISTICS...SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL STORM BY DAY 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 13.5N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 13.7N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 14.3N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 15.7N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 17.4N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 20.5N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND OVER CUBA 96H 26/1200Z 24.5N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 27/1200Z 27.0N 73.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.