dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Colder air in NE after sandy escapes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I am finding the differences between the interactions of Sandy with the trough and NATL low on the GFS and Euro to be quite fascinating. One thing I'm looking at is the vorticity exchanges. On one hand, the GFS heavily favours a great vorticity exchange between Sandy and the NATL low... so far as to even have it spin up another low on yesterday's 18Z run that helped pull Sandy east. Wrt to the trough... there is little to no vorticity exchange. On the Euro, however, while there is some vorticity exchange between Sandy and the NATL low... it does not occur to nearly the extent that it does on the GFS.... whereas there is much more vorticity interaction between Sandy and the trough. It will be interesting to see if, on future GFS runs, we can get more vorticity exchange between Sandy and the trough. The 12Z run takes an important step with creating a more well-defined trough... but there needs to be more interaction before we are able to see hints of a more Euro-aligned track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 i would say..., that flag is waving very violently and i would say if this were a winter storm and my concern was for snowfall then i would not have much confidence in snowfall outside of 3 days lead time, but from a perspective of coastal flooding, wind damage, in the NE and high elevation snows somewhere west or SW of New eng it is becoming likely....from a perspective similar to what bob butts just said. when's the last time you saw so many models show such a deep storm for so many runs this far out? those that say it doesn't matter i think are just overly protective of managing their expectations (not saying that's you) Here's a a tip....start conservative and you won't have to adjust your expectations nearly as often. I haven't looked at a thing because I have been away from the weather scence, but I wouldn't jump on epic soloutions at day 6.....will there be a nor' easter SOMEWHERE...whether it be over the fish or not...sure.....prob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Matt noyes starting to hit on the potential impacts: http://www.mattnoyes...torm-still.html Pulling no punches there. That first part is key, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Matt noyes starting to hit on the potential impacts: http://www.mattnoyes...torm-still.html a quote from that post: Because the fact is, probability and predictability is increasing quickly, and the potential impact is so significant that we have to start getting the honest assessment out about what is at stake, and what the chances are of verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 a quote from that post: There's an extremely fine line of just discussing the potential impact and people running away with what you said...bad interpretation of the probability of impact. In other words...the syndrome of expecting 10" when you only got 6" from a 6-10" forecast. I understand what he means, but we really need more time to figure out. I don't blame him for discussing the possibilities though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well, apparently the Gem is a fine wide right..no phase . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well, apparently the Gem is a fine wide right..no phase . yep. Super quick too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 There's an extremely fine line of just discussing the potential impact and people running away with what you said...bad interpretation of the probability of impact. In other words...the syndrome of expecting 10" when you only got 6" from a 6-10" forecast. I understand what he means, but we really need more time to figure out. I don't blame him for discussing the possibilities though. Yea, Noyes always does that...kinda romanticizes things in his DISCO..... What will likely happen is that this will be an entirely forgetable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 There's an extremely fine line of just discussing the potential impact and people running away with what you said...bad interpretation of the probability of impact. In other words...the syndrome of expecting 10" when you only got 6" from a 6-10" forecast. I understand what he means, but we really need more time to figure out. I don't blame him for discussing the possibilities though. As a novice in all this, I take all thoughts posted here in to consideration and try and formulate my best opinion as to how to plan for myself and family. I don't take everything as gospel, but having said that knowing the worst case scenario and knowing I could potentially be working 7-10 days straight I have to plan acordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Yea, Noyes always does that...kinda romanticizes things in his DISCO..... What will likely happen is that this will be an entirely forgetable event. Well, a good let down will hopefully temper weenie expectations heading into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Yea, Noyes always does that...kinda romanticizes things in his DISCO..... What will likely happen is that this will be an entirely forgetable event. While the bolded is true, it seems odd that some pretty decent models have held fast to an impact for someone (maybe fish?) for a few days. Granted, a lot can change over the next few days and it will probably swim east... When does the Pacific stuff start getting sampled? 3 days from now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Even on the GEFS, the NAO block is so much more stronger, but Sandy is just too far east. That would work if it were further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That block would be an absolute pants tent in the winter. Good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That block would be an absolute pants tent in the winter. Good lord. How did the model initialize with sandy, to Far East, west or right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Newfoundland and Nova Scotia get hammered new England will br a close miss. That's my thinking. Troll away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Even on the GEFS, the NAO block is so much more stronger, but Sandy is just too far east. That would work if it were further west. Did more GEFS members come west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Did more GEFS members come west? As you say that, it does a last minute capture at hr 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well, a good let down will hopefully temper weenie expectations heading into winter. Always a good time for a weenie let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Newfoundland and Nova Scotia get hammered new England will br a close miss. That's my thinking. Troll away Yeah that's possible. If storm meanders and doesn't phase I don't think the maritimes get hit so badly. The concern and extreme solution is the monster phase that helps intensify sandy through baroclonic processes as it approaches coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 gefs looks as though more members must be west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The `12z canadian model bailed on the 940mb blizzicane into New England? (shocked face) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well, GEFS says we have a ballgame. hr 168 is almost to ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 As you say that, it does a last minute capture at hr 156. It's fascinating watching the 2 distinct camps of members. Watch the number of members in each camp... That probably means more than what the op does at any given time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 yep...wow does the hook left too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Right over SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 yep...wow does the hook left too Wow for an ens mean that's concerning. 168 hours with a complex baroclonic interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Any mets out there, that is the mother of all blocks over southern Greenland. Like 400M above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Ggem way east but nice neg tilted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Classic. GEFS west, GFS slightly west, GGEM east. Euro will be interesting as usual. My guess is it will stay west but it won't have 3 feet of snow in PA. Also: 219 users....jesus...SNE's all time record (that I've seen) is like 260 or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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