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Who Needs Hazel When You Have Sandy


CT Rain

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I am finding the differences between the interactions of Sandy with the trough and NATL low on the GFS and Euro to be quite fascinating. One thing I'm looking at is the vorticity exchanges. On one hand, the GFS heavily favours a great vorticity exchange between Sandy and the NATL low... so far as to even have it spin up another low on yesterday's 18Z run that helped pull Sandy east. Wrt to the trough... there is little to no vorticity exchange.

On the Euro, however, while there is some vorticity exchange between Sandy and the NATL low... it does not occur to nearly the extent that it does on the GFS.... whereas there is much more vorticity interaction between Sandy and the trough.

It will be interesting to see if, on future GFS runs, we can get more vorticity exchange between Sandy and the trough. The 12Z run takes an important step with creating a more well-defined trough... but there needs to be more interaction before we are able to see hints of a more Euro-aligned track.

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i would say..., that flag is waving very violently

and i would say if this were a winter storm and my concern was for snowfall then i would not have much confidence in snowfall outside of 3 days lead time, but from a perspective of coastal flooding, wind damage, in the NE and high elevation snows somewhere west or SW of New eng it is becoming likely....from a perspective similar to what bob butts just said. when's the last time you saw so many models show such a deep storm for so many runs this far out? those that say it doesn't matter i think are just overly protective of managing their expectations (not saying that's you)

Here's a a tip....start conservative and you won't have to adjust your expectations nearly as often.

I haven't looked at a thing because I have been away from the weather scence, but I wouldn't jump on epic soloutions at day 6.....will there be a nor' easter SOMEWHERE...whether it be over the fish or not...sure.....prob.

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Matt noyes starting to hit on the potential impacts:

http://www.mattnoyes...torm-still.html

a quote from that post:

Because the fact is, probability and predictability is increasing quickly, and the potential impact is so significant that we have to start getting the honest assessment out about what is at stake, and what the chances are of verification.
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a quote from that post:

There's an extremely fine line of just discussing the potential impact and people running away with what you said...bad interpretation of the probability of impact. In other words...the syndrome of expecting 10" when you only got 6" from a 6-10" forecast. I understand what he means, but we really need more time to figure out. I don't blame him for discussing the possibilities though.

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There's an extremely fine line of just discussing the potential impact and people running away with what you said...bad interpretation of the probability of impact. In other words...the syndrome of expecting 10" when you only got 6" from a 6-10" forecast. I understand what he means, but we really need more time to figure out. I don't blame him for discussing the possibilities though.

Yea, Noyes always does that...kinda romanticizes things in his DISCO.....

What will likely happen is that this will be an entirely forgetable event.

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There's an extremely fine line of just discussing the potential impact and people running away with what you said...bad interpretation of the probability of impact. In other words...the syndrome of expecting 10" when you only got 6" from a 6-10" forecast. I understand what he means, but we really need more time to figure out. I don't blame him for discussing the possibilities though.

As a novice in all this, I take all thoughts posted here in to consideration and try and formulate my best opinion as to how to plan for myself and family. I don't take everything as gospel, but having said that knowing the worst case scenario and knowing I could potentially be working 7-10 days straight I have to plan acordingly.

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Yea, Noyes always does that...kinda romanticizes things in his DISCO.....

What will likely happen is that this will be an entirely forgetable event.

While the bolded is true, it seems odd that some pretty decent models have held fast to an impact for someone (maybe fish?) for a few days. Granted, a lot can change over the next few days and it will probably swim east...

When does the Pacific stuff start getting sampled? 3 days from now?

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Newfoundland and Nova Scotia get hammered new England will br a close miss. That's my thinking. Troll away

Yeah that's possible. If storm meanders and doesn't phase I don't think the maritimes get hit so badly. The concern and extreme solution is the monster phase that helps intensify sandy through baroclonic processes as it approaches coast.

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